TAPPS playoff picks

WhyThis73232 said:
So it seems as if people think it’s either going to be a 50/50 game or a blowout in Prestonwood favor right?
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Pretty much. Both teams have talent. Prestonwood has more but From what I have heard Baytown is in a zone right now and want too take on the world. Especially their spread back. Hes a senior who is on a mission and wont give up easily.
 
P.T.P. said:
Prestonwood lost to Lucas earlier this year...
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This is true and there are a lot of reasons for that.

1. It was the second game of the year.

2. Our senior safety had lost his starting job to a sophomore who hits hard. It wasn't until that game that everyone realized the sophomore wasn't very good in pass coverage. The Lucas QB TORCHED us in the first half. After a pick 6 by Lucas, it was 46-16 early in the 3rd quarter. We inserted the senior back into the lineup and Lucas didn't score again. That senior has gone on to have a fantastic season and is one of the best safeties in the state. He went toe to toe with Chandler Luedtke last Friday night. He lost a couple of battles (which happens when playing a receiver of that caliber), but he won more than he lost.

3. Our QB was a turnover machine that night. I think he threw 3 picks. Our offense was overhauled in the offseason and we were still working out the kinks. He's only thrown 1 INT since that game.

4. In the first half of that game, we had some kids that weren't ready for the spotlight, but that's why you play tough games out of district. Prestonwood fought back and had two possessions to try to tie it late.

Before this season, if you asked any Prestonwood fan if they'd rather lose to a tough opponent or whip up on a hapless opponent out of district, 100% would say play the tougher opponent. It was a game we should have won, and we didn't, but that game solidified things for Prestonwood. That was the start of the defense we're seeing today.
 
P.T.P. said:
Prestonwood lost to Lucas earlier this year...
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Fair to say the transitive win process is somewhat broken in TAPPS this year. While it is usually a remarkably predictive strategy, Abilene beat Lucas who beat Covenant Classical who destroyed Abilene. Don't know the context behind all those games, but fair to say things don't always work out that simple. Heck, Conroe Covenant is in the D2 Title game because they beat a district opponent that had 45'ed them less than a month before.

Also a lot of good context provided in the comment directly above for that Prestonwood loss to Lucas.
 
acltear said:
Fair to say the transitive win process is somewhat broken in TAPPS this year. While it is usually a remarkably predictive strategy, Abilene beat Lucas who beat Covenant Classical who destroyed Abilene. Don't know the context behind all those games, but fair to say things don't always work out that simple. Heck, Conroe Covenant is in the D2 Title game because they beat a district opponent that had 45'ed them less than a month before.

Also a lot of good context provided in the comment directly above for that Prestonwood loss to Lucas.
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Additionally, we scrimmaged Coram Deo in the preseason and obliterated them. Then CD turns around and boat races Lucas, yet Lucas was the team in the final four. It's all fodder anyway since PCA and Lucas won't play again.

Also, if the transitive win process (I'm trusting you to be using that word correctly bc I don't know what it means :ROFLMAO:) worked, Baytown wouldn't be playing on Thursday. What they've done in this playoff run is remarkable.
 
SixManNewb said:
This is true and there are a lot of reasons for that.

1. It was the second game of the year.

2. Our senior safety had lost his starting job to a sophomore who hits hard. It wasn't until that game that everyone realized the sophomore wasn't very good in pass coverage. The Lucas QB TORCHED us in the first half. After a pick 6 by Lucas, it was 46-16 early in the 3rd quarter. We inserted the senior back into the lineup and Lucas didn't score again. That senior has gone on to have a fantastic season and is one of the best safeties in the state. He went toe to toe with Chandler Luedtke last Friday night. He lost a couple of battles (which happens when playing a receiver of that caliber), but he won more than he lost.

3. Our QB was a turnover machine that night. I think he threw 3 picks. Our offense was overhauled in the offseason and we were still working out the kinks. He's only thrown 1 INT since that game.

4. In the first half of that game, we had some kids that weren't ready for the spotlight, but that's why you play tough games out of district. Prestonwood fought back and had two possessions to try to tie it late.

Before this season, if you asked any Prestonwood fan if they'd rather lose to a tough opponent or whip up on a hapless opponent out of district, 100% would say play the tougher opponent. It was a game we should have won, and we didn't, but that game solidified things for Prestonwood. That was the start of the defense we're seeing today.
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Great points. I've seen the Prestonwood vs. Lucas film. In my opinion, unfortunately for Prestonwood, they simply ran out of time... Lucas overwhelmed PCA in the first half/early 2nd half and then Prestonwood seemed to find themselves in the 2nd half.
 
SixManNewb said:
Additionally, we scrimmaged Coram Deo in the preseason and obliterated them. Then CD turns around and boat races Lucas, yet Lucas was the team in the final four. It's all fodder anyway since PCA and Lucas won't play again.

Also, if the transitive win process (I'm trusting you to be using that word correctly bc I don't know what it means :ROFLMAO:) worked, Baytown wouldn't be playing on Thursday. What they've done in this playoff run is remarkable.
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100% agree here. That's why we play the game!

My underlying point is the jump in level of competition from Div. 3 to Div. 2 is significant. To be clear, I do think Prestonwood would be a top team in Div. 2, but to say they would win it all at Div. 2 or Div. 1 might be a stretch.
 
P.T.P. said:
Great points. I've seen the Prestonwood vs. Lucas film. In my opinion, unfortunately for Prestonwood, they simply ran out of time... Lucas overwhelmed PCA in the first half/early 2nd half and then Prestonwood seemed to find themselves in the 2nd half.
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I don't think we ran out of time. We had two shots at a tying score. How many more do you need? I just think we didn't get it done and Lucas did. The play calling was questionable on the final drives and on both 4th downs, it was there for the taking, but we didn't execute.

I wasn't happy about losing, but I was satisfied knowing we grew from the experience. We showed a lot of mental toughness in the second half.
 
The game will come down to Baytowns defense and prestonwoods solid defensive end front. Prestonwoods offense is obviously very high powered and have 6 athletes who can score at any time. Can baytown slow down their spread backs running game combined with the passing attack? They also have some big athletic monsters that can pressure the qb. Can Baytowns spreadback create anything with them standing in the way of reaching receivers?
 
SixManNewb said:
Additionally, we scrimmaged Coram Deo in the preseason and obliterated them. Then CD turns around and boat races Lucas, yet Lucas was the team in the final four. It's all fodder anyway since PCA and Lucas won't play again.

Also, if the transitive win process (I'm trusting you to be using that word correctly bc I don't know what it means :ROFLMAO:) worked, Baytown wouldn't be playing on Thursday. What they've done in this playoff run is remarkable.
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Lol, transitive meaning the thought process that "Team A beat Team B, Team B beat Team C, therefore Team A could definitely beat Team C." So yah, you're using it correctly. Seems like Baytown has had quite the ride.
 
P.T.P. said:
100% agree here. That's why we play the game!

My underlying point is the jump in level of competition from Div. 3 to Div. 2 is significant. To be clear, I do think Prestonwood would be a top team in Div. 2, but to say they would win it all at Div. 2 or Div. 1 might be a stretch.
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We will find out for sure what it looks like next year. Both Prestonwood and Nazarene move up to D2. The Covenant, Abilene, Nazarene district will be fun to watch.
 
Old76er said:
The game will come down to Baytowns defense and prestonwoods solid defensive end front. Prestonwoods offense is obviously very high powered and have 6 athletes who can score at any time. Can baytown slow down their spread backs running game combined with the passing attack? They also have some big athletic monsters that can pressure the qb. Can Baytowns spreadback create anything with them standing in the way of reaching receivers?
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Baytown spread back shouldn’t have an issue. He’s shifty enough. They haven’t seen anyone like him yet. San Marcos spread back is the only person that comes close to #4 shiftiness
 
Longhorn1970 said:
Baytown spread back shouldn’t have an issue. He’s shifty enough. They haven’t seen anyone like him yet. San Marcos spread back is the only person that comes close to #4 shiftiness
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I think, from what I’ve seen, #4 from Baytown won’t get past #40, 44, or 33 if they do what they’ve done all year, technique can still beat the quickness of #4. Also, from those highlights per SixManNewb shows the effort from #1 on Prestonwood. I think it’ll be a close game, but it might not be, just depends on how the defense from Prestonwood plays. And I know how everyone talks about Prestonwood’s defense, but that really is the story here, Prestonwood’s defense against the bump and dump offense of Baytown.
 
#4 is a talent no doubt and it gives Baytown an amazing chance to win this game. That being said if they are able to shut #4 down who else does Baytown have that will step up for them? I think the game will be closer than people think! Its a championship game, a ton of pressure for both programs anything can happen!

Secondly how good is Baytowns defense. What does there secondary look like? Looking at the scores they give up some points. How may points are Prestonwood giving up as opposed to Baytown
 
The only team they both faced this year was Longview Christian. Baytown beat them 86-52 Prestonwood beat them 56-8. I know its a one game sample size an there are a ton of variables here. But lets take this dictionally, It took 86 points for Baytown to beat Longview because there defense gave up 52 points. Prestonwood's biggest concern with the same team was making sure it did not get to the second half

As I believe Baytown can win this game I think it is going to take 60 points to do it. They will have to do that against a team that has not let a team score more that 40 all year
 
100% agree common opponent of Longview is a solid benchmark and Prestonwood dominated them with Baytown winning in a close one. Prestonwood played the state championship game last week. This is a homecoming game for them this week.
 
seventh6man said:
The only team they both faced this year was Longview Christian. Baytown beat them 86-52 Prestonwood beat them 56-8. I know its a one game sample size an there are a ton of variables here. But lets take this dictionally, It took 86 points for Baytown to beat Longview because there defense gave up 52 points. Prestonwood's biggest concern with the same team was making sure it did not get to the second half

As I believe Baytown can win this game I think it is going to take 60 points to do it. They will have to do that against a team that has not let a team score more that 40 all year
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Yes that seems like it will be very difficult as most of us have been saying. Prestonwoods solid defensive ends will be the key in this one. I think prestonwood will be hard to stop but can baytown keep up on the offensive side of the ball.
I do think Baytowns defense has its weaknesses but they are scrappy as they’ve already slowed down some high powered offensive teams. This may be a different animal.

Team offensive average points per game

San Marcos hill country 60.44
Held them to 44

St joes 58.18
held them to 42

Brazosport 53.33
Gave up 60

Prestonwood averages 54.18

Never know what’s gonna happen til both teams hit the field.
 
Old76er said:
Yes that seems like it will be very difficult as most of us have been saying. Prestonwoods solid defensive ends will be the key in this one. I think prestonwood will be hard to stop but can baytown keep up on the offensive side of the ball.
I do think Baytowns defense has its weaknesses but they are scrappy as they’ve already slowed down some high powered offensive teams. This may be a different animal.

Team offensive average points per game

San Marcos hill country 60.44
Held them to 44

St joes 58.18
held them to 42

Brazosport 53.33
Gave up 60

Prestonwood averages 54.18

Never know what’s gonna happen til both teams hit the field.
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54.18…but 7/11 games only went to half. The per 4 quarter average is 79. That seems like an important distinction.
 
SixManNewb said:
54.18…but 7/11 games only went to half. The per 4 quarter average is 79. That seems like an important distinction.
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Agree I’m not sure on the per quarter average on the other teams but thats definitely an important fact to point out. I was just doing a little digging into some opponents and don’t have all the quarter per quarter breakdown as you do for Prestonwood. Thanks for sharing
 

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