I think Water Valley vs. Newcastle is one of the more intriguing matchups this playoff, mainly because it gives us a real barometer for what Water Valley actually is and what they might be capable of down the stretch. Up to this point, the schedule has given us hints, but not a true defining moment. This game has a chance to be exactly that.
If you want a comparison point to see if Water Valley is going to be an elite D1 team with the ability to push the D1 east representative then the Jayton matchup with Newcastle is the best lens we can use at the moment. Jayton is different than your typical high school roster. They’ve got three guys who wouldn’t just be considered top-tier six-man athletes, they’re elite athletes period, across multiple sports, with the résumé to prove it. When you evaluate Newcastle’s showing in that game, you have to look at it through the lens that they weren’t just playing a good team… they were playing elite, multi-sport, grand-stage athletes. And even in that setting, Newcastle showed what most of us already suspected from their scrimmages and early performances: they’re a legitimately a good football team.
So naturally going into the Jayton vs Newcastle match up. On paper looks to be a good match up. But after the 1st Q the level of football and players just was too much and Jayton showed it’s dominance, which many would say is a notch below where the Longhorns might be.
But here’s the key Water Valley question, are they a good football team, or a good team with some elite great players? That’s where the Water Valley comparison gets interesting.
Water Valley hasn’t faced a Jayton-level athletes yet. Their schedule hasn’t shown a superstar matchup that forces us to say “Yep, they can run with state-level speed and skill.” But they have handled teams with strong individual pieces. Robert Lee is a perfect example: one truly exceptional player surrounded by solid players, and Water Valley took care of business with ease. You can’t dismiss that result, but looking at the Newcastle score vs Jayton, Newcastle falls into the same category as Rankin (really good team, just no individual elite level players) but WV mercy ruled them. That puts Rankin, BC, Whiteface, GC, Newcastle, Ira, etc all in the same category of really good football teams but no elite singularly players. But Robert Lee does. So looking at the Water Valley game, WV controled the narrative the entire game. Showing that they at least have a good football team with at least more than one elite football player to dominate in the manner that they did.
So this matchup becomes another measuring stick. If the talk around Water Valley is accurate — that they’ve got the overall athleticism and team speed that can at least be in the same ZIP code as Jayton, and Gordon, then this is the week they need to prove it. Because if they are on that level, then they’re not just in the conversation for a playoff run… they’re in the conversation for maybe even pushing into a battle with the Longhorns themselves.
For Water Valley, this has to be a statement game. A convincing win would validate everything being said about their potential ceiling. It would tell us they’re not just a “good team with some good players,” but a true contender capable of punching with the best at the end. I’m pretty convinced that WV will mercy rule all the way to State Championship where for the first time this season both teams will see really good football team with more than one elite level athlete.
But if Newcastle is able to move the ball consistently, put up multiple scores, or keep it tight into the late third or fourth quarter, then the picture becomes clearer to how December ends.
Personally, I’d love to see WV dethrone the Longhorns ..only fair since they took away our 3-peat.
Prediction:
WV-60
Newcastle-15
3 minutes into third Q
