Toy Upsets.

5

51eleven

Six-man expert
I was just perusing the site, seems a little slow for this time of year. So I started comparing last weeks spreads to the outcomes. Part of the way through this last weeks spreads were replaced by this weeks.
What I'm wondering is if I'm wrong that these were upsets and if anybody from the Teams/Towns involved cares to comment otherwise.

Mullin 45's Lometa?
Robert Lee over GC.
Blanket over Zephyr.
Evant 54-50 over R-Star (didn't They upset GC last week?).
Strawn by 26 over KC. Under dawgs by 0.
May by 14 over WV. WV favored by 25.
 
If GC is Garden City, then no. Neither Rising Star nor Evant played Garden City last week. Right off the top of my head, I can't come up with another GC. Didn't Sterling City beat Garden City last week? Maybe.
 
SC beat GC about three weeks ago. RL beat GC last week.

On a side note, GC Beat Highland earlier in the season and then Highland beat SC last week. Except for Crowell and BC, things are getting roiled up in the D1 West.......
 
Old Bearkat":1flgv7up said:
SC beat GC about three weeks ago. RL beat GC last week.

On a side note, GC Beat Highland earlier in the season and then Highland beat SC last week. Except for Crowell and BC, things are getting roiled up in the D1 West.......
Click to expand...

Crowell, BC, Happy, Ira. Only two 'down' teams this year I see is maybe Valley and WV. Even in a 'down' year, Valley will probably still win their district, and go the the playoffs for, what? The 15th straight season?

Or maybe I just don't sabe' your definition of "roiled".
 
If you look at the results, there are always about 20 'upsets'. Here's the data from last week.
6 84-23 0.785 49

As I was posting scores, it seemed to me there were quite a few more, but we always have a week that has more outrageous upsets right before district. Most of the time, I chalk it up to teams finally playing a game that helps move them into the right spot (up or down) they should've been in, but many times it has to do with grades, injuries and resting people down before district. Depth is such a factor in six-man that a player or two can really make a huge swing.
 
granger":1rfusrm7 said:
If you look at the results, there are always about 20 'upsets'. Here's the data from last week.
6 84-23 0.785 49

As I was posting scores, it seemed to me there were quite a few more, but we always have a week that has more outrageous upsets right before district. Most of the time, I chalk it up to teams finally playing a game that helps move them into the right spot (up or down) they should've been in, but many times it has to do with grades, injuries and resting people down before district. Depth is such a factor in six-man that a player or two can really make a huge swing.
Click to expand...
Just a reminder, I love the data behind your toy. I get the columns as week, correct-incorrect, percentage, but what is the last column?
 
Just the number of games that were ended by the 45-point rule. I added it when freeagent was figuring them by hand each week.
 
I wasn't intentionally trying to dis the toy. I respect and admire it's guidance in trying to follow along with who's moving up down etc. I also respect the Guru's ability to create the thing in the first place and his continued efforts to refine it. Upsets are part of the game, a fun part when your team is the upsetter.
Maybe I should start an upset thread on the "other" football topic section and we could talk about the D1 college top ten rankings this past weekend.
 
51eleven":25qj0plf said:
I wasn't intentionally trying to dis the toy.
Click to expand...

Didn't think anyone was. I honestly thought this weekend had a bunch of upsets and was surprised it was only about average...

When I am double-checking the scores and putting them into the database, one of my checks to keep the names spelled correctly and make sure I get all of the games in the schedule is to run a list of all games with the favorite first, followed by the dog... There is a real pattern as to how the games come in. The earlier games (as they are reported) are dominated by the favorites. Obviously these tend to be games that were predicted 45's that end up that way. Of course when there is an upset, people are eager to get those in as well, but they start to show up a bit later.
 
OK, then let's talk about your predictions before rather than after the upsets occur. What do you see as bad toy numbers this week? Here is what I see (unless there are injury issues I don't know about [crazy, how does the toy figure all that in?]):

Seguin Lifegate beats Freddy (Lifegate 16 point dogs for toy)

Throck 17 point favorites over Rotan (Easily covers spread and maybe 45)

High Island 20 point favorites over Alvin Living Stones (High Island 45s them)

Waco Vanguard 23 point underdogs to Round Rock Christian (Waco covers the spread and may win)

Sugarland Logos Prep 8 point favorites over HOA (I think Sugarland will cover spread, they are a good team)

Red Oak Ovilla +42 against Rockwall (ROO all over the place the first 5 weeks, but no way I think they will lose by 42)
 
GSB":n9lnt1b5 said:
OK, then let's talk about your predictions before rather than after the upsets occur. What do you see as bad toy numbers this week? Here is what I see (unless there are injury issues I don't know about [crazy, how does the toy figure all that in?]):

Seguin Lifegate beats Freddy (Lifegate 16 point dogs for toy)

Throck 17 point favorites over Rotan (Easily covers spread and maybe 45)

High Island 20 point favorites over Alvin Living Stones (High Island 45s them)

Waco Vanguard 23 point underdogs to Round Rock Christian (Waco covers the spread and may win)

Sugarland Logos Prep 8 point favorites over HOA (I think Sugarland will cover spread, they are a good team)

Red Oak Ovilla +42 against Rockwall (ROO all over the place the first 5 weeks, but no way I think they will lose by 42)
Click to expand...

So wait, I thought you were going to pick some upsets. Of the six games you chose, you picked one upset, two 'may' upset, two will win by more than the spread and the last one I am not sure what not losing by more than 42 means..... at least the machine is decisive enough to actually which team will win (that is really all it does. the line is an estimate of the score differential. It is not saying that team will win by at least or the other team will lose by at least...

I am just being silly
 
OK... so 6 straight up upsets.. not considering the spread... much
Forestburg woops Harrold
Hedley woops Fort Elliot
Klondike beats Motley Co by a few TDs
Rising Star over Zephyr in a close one
Groom woops Valley

Well.. thats 5.....

OH..
Iredell only beats Morgan by 45 once... since its listed twice :)
 
Good point, kind of. If you were just picking winners you would not assign a +27 or whatever. If the toy assigns a -45 and that team wins by one, I would say in six man football that prediction was a fail. Nonetheless, I'll stick with upsets, or games I think the toy is completely wrong. This week it is Seguin Lifegate (+17) over Freddy. Human versus computer. I'll try to do one every week. This will be fun.
 

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