coachtim":3jzzue65 said:
No love for the private schools??? Lucas & Azle should be in the top 30. Lucas has speed, strength & size. I have watched both teams & am not affiliated with either in any way. I understand the perception of public schools. What do I know, I have coached for 18 years including a 5A playoff team.
Coachtim, I could start off with some pithy comment on how 5A football is so similar to 6man, but we all know there are a few minor differences. . . But I think I will address where and why he two schools are at currently.
Overall ranking All Teams UIL to independents the system has Azle Christian at 49th and Lucas Christian at 47th.
I had to start somewhere when determining a power rating for all teams, and I had limited knowledge of most of the non-uil teams. My major source of info was Dave Campbell’s football mag. So I start with a power ranking and compared to each team they face. The out come infers that the ranking must be to high , just right, or to low and I make an adjustment for the next week. It should get better if the teams are better than I gave them credit for.
Lucas started 26.53 -> 45.49 -> 52.49 ->75.17
Week 0 Lucas wasn’t the fav but won + 18.96
Week 1 Luca was fav and exceeded the margin predicted + 7
Week 2 Lucas wasn’t the fav but won + 22.68
The amount of change is determined by how different the delta between forecast and actual margin of victory. A team can actually lose and go up in power. Say team a has a 20 rating and they play team b with a 120, the margin should be around 100 points but if the game ends with team b winning by 1 point the adjustment is
1. Team is is much better than a 20 they go up
2. Team b isn’t as good as a 120 they go down
As the weeks go by, the power rate for a team should move towards a rate that is consistent with the opponents and the forecast margin should approximate the actual margin. Only question I have is why I started Lucas at 26.53 that is an arbitrary choice I made based on something from July. If I had started them at a 70 then they would most likely be ranked up around 100 and in the top 10.
What I plan to do after this weeks games is to take the new power rankings and go back and plug them into the starting powers and run the games forward, this should adjust the rankings to be pretty close to accurate.
Hope this helps explain what the system is supposed to be doing.
