fajitapete's rankings(ravings)


Six-man fan
For a lot longer than I care to think about I have been working on a ranking system aka ‘a toy’. It is based on last years power rankings that I tabulated and then influenced by enrollment, last years district standing, lettermen lost, returning, and starters returning. The last 4 items are taken out of DCTF so blame him if the rankings do go the way you want.

After a lot of regression testing and trying to quantify the influence on each of these areas, I think I have my system ready to run. It will get better as time goes on as I recessively apply corrections in a 4 week moving window so hopefully towards the end of the season I will have a good ranking system. I tested the system during last years play offs and only missed 5 games. So I am going public this year.

It’s not rocket science, but seems pretty damn close to it. Anyway, I haven’t done anything with the tapps or independents. I don’t have a clue how one can harness that much data, just doing div 1 and 2 is kicking my butt. I will try to bring those teams on line this year.

So here is the first run aka preseason rankings. If this can be kept up I’ll do it all year but if work gets in the way, well I do like the paycheck. I will try to predict upcoming game as well so we can all take big ol jabs when I miss.

Richland Springs 1
Cherokee 2
Mullin 3
Lohn 4 <---------- my bad, left them out
Brookesmith 5
Blue Bird wrote:
> Lohn, Pete. Lets at least give them a number. Actually Lohn may be a dark
> horse for a playoff spot.

My bad, I had Lohn stuck down in the outlaw bunch but the power ranking assigned has them looking up.
crap, I'll make another run with them in the right district . . . I'll post the correct. PM me your mailing address, I'll send yoiu a prize for finding the first error, I expect there are others
Yep I agree, someone else could slip into the number 2 spot.Cherokee seems over rated. I don't see anyone beating RS ,period. Very well coached team. not as talented as some div 2 teams, but a paramount of precision. Execution is flawless, they simply do not make mistakes. They do not beat themselves. They repeat ass D2 champs
Mullin gets back all starters that 45'd Lohn and Brookesmith last year. Cherokee will not have the horses they did last year due to age restrictions. If the Mullin boys all show up and play for the new coach whoever it may be, they could get 2nd since Cherokee will be down. Here are my predictions;

Richland Springs
#1. Richland Springs - 45's everybody again
#2. Cherokee - Good young kids shouldnt have a problem lockin up 2nd
#3. Lohn - Have all skilled kids returning. Hard working group and finally some coaching consistency
#4. Mullin - seems to have alot of me players and a new coach...again!
#5. Brookesmith - A new coach, again, again, again....young team still
If the Eagles have anywhere near what they had last year, they could be better, and if I remember correctly most of the players were returning. That ranking may be close to correct when all is said and done.
I had Mullin picked 2nd with what they had coming back, but I heard the best player they had quit Monday! He will probably be back, but if they stay together they could get that second spot. They 45'd Lohn last year and have everyone but 1 back from that team. The biggest thing Mullin has going against them is another head coaching change. Too many in the past 5 or 6 years for those kids to know any kind of stability. Also doesn't help that pretty much any coach that comes in there, the local experts find something wrong with him and trry to turn the kids against them. I feel bad for the players!
I look for the Bulldogs to begin to choke when the going gets a little rough, and, the Lohn Eagles are starting to make their move toward second place in District 15! (in my opinion)
If the powers that be in Mullin(i.e. the local experts, the above mentioned being one of them) would let a coach come in, give up the AD position to said coach, and let them begin building a program, Mullin could possibly get back to the days winning days of old. But until they stop running off the coaches they get because they dont bow down to the select few in town, Mullin will continue to be just a mediocre team. I wish them the best, but it needs to change because the seniors there have seen four coaching changes in 4 years.
If Mullin's "best" player
is a quitter,
that basically sums up
what the problem is down there.

On another yet relative note;
If all coaches would get rid of that #1 jersey
maybe boys would start thinking that the TEAM is actually #1.
Well, it looks like I am going to have to change my mind about those Lohn Eagles for this year. The team that I thought would improve and mature from last year did not
happen. I drove over to Richland Springs tonight to watch the Coyotes and Eagles, and I was disappointed in the Lohn team. They had one back with some speed on
kickoff returns when the Richland Springs coach was playing his subs. When the Richland Springs 'A' team was in, Lohn was totally smothered. I know that the Coyotes seem to have a little better team overall than the State Championship team of last year, but I actually was looking for a better game from Lohn this year. I was told that the Coyotes had two or three of their starters out sick also. They were very impressive on offense. If I counted correctly, the Coyotes scored eleven touchdowns and only ran twelve offensive plays the entire game. Outstanding play and coaching in my book!
The Coyotes scored on 9 of 11 plays from scrimmage. A fumble recovery and a an interception accounted for the other two scores, and yes, they had two starters out for this game.
In my opinion, Richland will 45 them next week. Then it will come down to the Cherokeee game just like it did last year to see who goes #2. If the big kid plays, Cherokee will have a hard time beating Mullin, but if he is not back, Cherokee will go as #2.
BTW, they were sitting at the same place with the same record last year. Richland is still the super class of any district. If the Mullin boys pull together, I think they can beat Cherokee.