fajitapete's rankings(ravings)

[fajitapete]

For a lot longer than I care to think about I have been working on a ranking system aka ‘a toy’. It is based on last years power rankings that I tabulated and then influenced by enrollment, last years district standing, lettermen lost, returning, and starters returning. The last 4 items are taken out of DCTF so blame him if the rankings do go the way you want.

After a lot of regression testing and trying to quantify the influence on each of these areas, I think I have my system ready to run. It will get better as time goes on as I recessively apply corrections in a 4 week moving window so hopefully towards the end of the season I will have a good ranking system. I tested the system during last years play offs and only missed 5 games. So I am going public this year.

It’s not rocket science, but seems pretty damn close to it. Anyway, I haven’t done anything with the tapps or independents. I don’t have a clue how one can harness that much data, just doing div 1 and 2 is kicking my butt. I will try to bring those teams on line this year.

So here is the first run aka preseason rankings. If this can be kept up I’ll do it all year but if work gets in the way, well I do like the paycheck. I will try to predict upcoming game as well so we can all take big ol jabs when I miss.


Garden City 1
Rankin 2
Fort Davis 3
Sierra Blanca 4

 

[kbjoe1]

pete i look forward to your weekly picks with 6-man will be fun .. an injury here can sway the outcome in a hurry as can a few bad calls... any way good luck ... i will give you my choices or guesses... hahaha

1 rankin
2 garden city
3 ft davis
4 sierra blanca

 

[Jedi]

Rankin will beat Garden City and win this district. How could they not they have Danny Davis and now have hired Brad Thompson. Both won a state championship in 2005 while at Throckmorton great hire for Rankin. Good luck!

 

[High Plains Drifter]

What happened to the coach that replaced Danny?

 

[Billy_Hoyle]

I believe that Thompson is the boys basketball coach there.

Also until someone beats them...GC is the favorite of the district.

 

[kbjoe1]

Danny is the superintendent, Shannon Williams is the football coach. I don’t know this other coach unless he is the basketball coach if so he is new. Coach Jones will have a very very good team even if he used all girls but GC has lots of boys so they will be salty.

 

[High Plains Drifter]

We were talking about Danny James who was coach at Rule.

 

[kenlen]

Billy_Hoyle - I agree. Till someone beats them, GC should be the favorite. Coach Williams has had some good talent but I don't see GC getting out coached. Same as at Sidney in the day - talent goes a long way.

 

[C. La Transviejo]

Talent does go a long way, but coaching goes farther. I have seen many super talented teams lose to super coached teams. With the combination of Coach Williams knowledge and expertise of the six-man game, and his well-known conditioning program, his teams, I believe, will always be at or near the top.

 

[kenlen]

C. La T - Yes and Yes. Talent goes a long way - coaching does also. I stand by my first post, Coach Williams had some very good talent at Sidney, but I still do not believe Vance will be outcoached by anyone, at least not in their district.