fajitapete's rankings(ravings)

[fajitapete]

For a lot longer than I care to think about I have been working on a ranking system aka ‘a toy’. It is based on last years power rankings that I tabulated and then influenced by enrollment, last years district standing, lettermen lost, returning, and starters returning. The last 4 items are taken out of DCTF so blame him if the rankings do go the way you want.

After a lot of regression testing and trying to quantify the influence on each of these areas, I think I have my system ready to run. It will get better as time goes on as I recessively apply corrections in a 4 week moving window so hopefully towards the end of the season I will have a good ranking system. I tested the system during last years play offs and only missed 5 games. So I am going public this year.

It’s not rocket science, but seems pretty damn close to it. Anyway, I haven’t done anything with the tapps or independents. I don’t have a clue how one can harness that much data, just doing div 1 and 2 is kicking my butt. I will try to bring those teams on line this year.

So here is the first run aka preseason rankings. If this can be kept up I’ll do it all year but if work gets in the way, well I do like the paycheck. I will try to predict upcoming game as well so we can all take big ol jabs when I miss.


Turkey Valley 1
Follett 2
Kress 3
Hart 4
McLean 5

 

[rainjacktx]

It'll be interesting to see how your little toy does this season. On the one hand, I don't think you need to delve into rocket science to pick the district champion this season. On the other, It will be interesting to see how the 3-4-5 spots play out versus your system.

 

[The Bottom Line]

rainjacktx wrote:
> It'll be interesting to see how your little toy does this season. On the
> one hand, I don't think you need to delve into rocket science to pick the
> district champion this season. On the other, It will be interesting to see
> how the 3-4-5 spots play out versus your system.

spoken like a true patriot, hard to argure with you though.

 

[rainjacktx]

The Bottom Line wrote:
>
> spoken like a true patriot, hard to argure with you though.>

This will be my second season as patriot fan. I don't know how "true" that makes me. I was disliked under the hill for several years because of my outspoken persona, and my blind support of the Mighty Owls.

Just two months to Hico. Then the conversations will be about whether certain teams came in over ranked, or if other teams came in totally under the radar.

 

[wths]

Pete as in all things time will tell how the bugs will affect the process but rest assured you'll hear about your short comings here on the board first. Your "dry" run looks pretty good though if I may say so myself.

 

[topher80]

Valley 1
Follett 2
Kress 3
McLean 4
Hart 5

Close Pete... close.

 

[wths]

I honestly think this race is WIDE open this year. Follett and Valley will be tough as always but McLean and Kress will make some noise for sure too and I'm not to sure about Hart.

 

[rainjacktx]

wths wrote:
> I honestly think this race is WIDE open this year. Follett and Valley will
> be tough as always but McLean and Kress will make some noise for sure too
> and I'm not to sure about Hart.

It's way too early in the season for me to be saying things like this - but I honestly do not see any district team being able to last an entire game with Valley this season.

 

[topher80]

Follett should be able to be close going in the 4th quarter... *should*

 

[#3HOOKEMHORNS]

McLean is going to surprise, #23 is a beast

 

[topher80]

What about the other five McLean players on the field at any given time?

 

[#3HOOKEMHORNS]

They got 23 so its all good

 

[wths]

I seem to recall alot of McLean fans ranting and raving about a player who is good but it's been proven that this IS a team sport so he's gonna need the other 5 regardless. Rainjack you may be right about that. after hearing about some of the practices from teams in the district Valley is.....solid to say the least it's going to be an interesting season that's for sure.