TXForever13
Six-man observer
Rankings dont mean a thing. All that matters is who ends that last game with the most points at AT&T Stadium.
2024 Rankings
- Thread starter Tigerfan85
- Start date
CoachTaylor9
Six-man fan
Also Valley's schedule is BRUTAL. Brave man playing Gordon and Jayton on back to back weeks. I respect it.
dammitbobby
Six-man fan
Mike, isn't this more of a function of the Toy capping spreads/scores at 45? As an example, I don't think it can differentiate, or know, whether #19 Klondike lost those games to better opponents, or if they're just struggling? It just looks at scores objectively.
Let's assume that Klondike got 45'd those first 4 weeks (no idea, and too lazy to look it up.) A very low-ranked team could also play very similarly-ranked teams, get 45'd in all, and that's what we would expect to see, right? There's no way to 'credit' a team playing a tough non-district schedule, if they don't win those games.
That's my understanding, at least, hope that makes sense.
Yeah, I think you're understanding correctly. Basically, if a team is "supposed" to get 45'd, and does, not much will happen. That's what you're seeing with Richland Springs so far this season. They're "supposed" to 45 the teams they've played so it really doesn't affect either team a whole lot when it happens. There may be a little movement, but not much.
If a team is supposed to play a closer game and gets 45'd, one team will gain some rating points, and one team will lose some. That's been the case with Klondike in a few of their games, which is why you've seen them drop some rating points. However, their closer games with top ranked opponents is keeping their rating up. If they'd gotten 45'd by all 4 opponents, they'd probably be moved pretty far down the list.
CoachSanders@ACS
Six-man pro
For the record, as a HFC, I despise the "supposed to 45" spread. Please never have us "suppose to 45" any team ever again. Please. Thank you!
For the record, as a HFC, I despise the "supposed to 45" spread. Please never have us "suppose to 45" any team ever again. Please. Thank you!
Noted...I'll add something so that if your team is "supposed to 45" another team, we'll add an asterisk that says "just kidding" at the bottom of the page.
CoachSanders@ACS
Six-man pro
Please do! It's almost as bad as the "Madden Cover" curse for us!Noted...I'll add something so that if your team is "supposed to 45" another team, we'll add an asterisk that says "just kidding" at the bottom of the page.
SimplyPut
Six-man pro
Brave was not the word I was thinking!
No, it's capped at 45.
Ok pump the brakes Mike.
Every year there are a few things with these rankings that have me scratching my head, wondering how it happens. This week I see one of those. I'd like to be able to work out how Follett is ranked above Benjamin, a team that beat them by 30+ earlier in the season. Granted, The Toy doesn't look at who beat who. It just runs numbers. This is just the kind of thing that baffles me and costs me hours of staring at this algorithm, and ratings, and just hours trying to work out how in the world that happened.
Just for the record, I am rarely able to work these things out. It's just fun, albeit frustrating, for me to try to figure these things out so I can better answer questions as they come up. In this case, though, my only answer is this thing is way too complex to figure out.
I will say, though, that for the last two weeks, it's been at over 80% accuracy overall and, for a computer system with around 300 teams, I'd say that's pretty darn good!
Just for the record, I am rarely able to work these things out. It's just fun, albeit frustrating, for me to try to figure these things out so I can better answer questions as they come up. In this case, though, my only answer is this thing is way too complex to figure out.
I will say, though, that for the last two weeks, it's been at over 80% accuracy overall and, for a computer system with around 300 teams, I'd say that's pretty darn good!
VI-MAN
Six-man pro
Im not hating on any schools, private or UIL. But i have always wondered why they are mixed in these rankings, or how a game between the two even counts for anything other than practice being they don’t follow the same guidelines and rules? Ive also thought having them combined in rankings probably makes it harder on the “toy”. I know how hard it is to compete a schedule and why the games are played, im just curious on what others think?
Honestly, I don't think it makes a whole lot of difference where The Toy is concerned. I think having so many teams, in general, causes some problems but UIL vs non-UIL doesn't really matter. Some weeks it's better at UIL games. Some weeks it's better at non-UIL games.
The only way to know for sure, though, would be for me to run some tests but, really, since there are so many games played that are mixed games, it wouldn't make much sense to separate them anyways. These mixed games make up 28.97% of the games so far this season. That's 195 games through just five weeks that wouldn't count for anything towards the rankings.
For all you statistical nerds out there, like me, here's a look at how The Toy has done so far this season. The hope is that it continues to get better as the season progresses, as it has in past seasons, but if not, we'll just say it's because we've got a lot of competitive teams out there.
| Overall | UIL | Non-UIL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 91-45 (66.91%) | 43-16 (72.88%) | 24-17 (58.54%) |
| Week 2 | 96-44 (68.57%) | 38-19 (66.67%) | 29-13 (69.05%) |
| Week 3 | 102-34 (75%) | 45-13 (77.59%) | 25-13 (65.79%) |
| Week 4 | 106-22 (82.81%) | 50-9 (84.75%) | 27-6 (81.82%) |
| Week 5 | 107-26 (80.45%) | 43-12 (78.18%) | 32-4 (88.89%) |
| Totals | 502-171 (74.59%) | 219-69 (76.04%) | 137-53 (72.11%) |
DOWNBOX
Six-man pro
It's all about numbers.
If I understand Mike correctly, he has to come up with a number value at the start of the season, for each team.
Mike refers back to numbers from the previous season as I understand it.
Would be nice if the Coaches gave Mike returning starters numbers.
Years as starter.
Senior points for each year as a starter.
Junior points for each year as a starter.
Sophomore points for each year as a starter.
Team =100 points.
2 senior starters (starter ever season) 8 points.
1 senior (2 years starter) 4 points.
Ect, ect.
Then add those points up to start the season.
If I understand Mike correctly, he has to come up with a number value at the start of the season, for each team.
Mike refers back to numbers from the previous season as I understand it.
Would be nice if the Coaches gave Mike returning starters numbers.
Years as starter.
Senior points for each year as a starter.
Junior points for each year as a starter.
Sophomore points for each year as a starter.
Team =100 points.
2 senior starters (starter ever season) 8 points.
1 senior (2 years starter) 4 points.
Ect, ect.
Then add those points up to start the season.
How is Spur ranked 8 spots behind Ira when they are 5-0 & beat Ira in Ira on their Homecoming. Just curious
Texlonghorn75
Six-man expert
Can't you substitute something like going to get hammered or Mike Hammered or blasted or something similar. Let them down easy.Noted...I'll add something so that if your team is "supposed to 45" another team, we'll add an asterisk that says "just kidding" at the bottom of the page.
VI-MAN
Six-man pro
Had that number of games gone up every year?
