Week 9 Spreads

[rainjacktx]

There's roughly 108 games scheduled this week - give or take a game or two. Let's just round down and say there's 100 games this week. Out of all those games - only about 34 of them are picked to go the distance - give or take a game or two. 2/3's of the games are picked to be over early. That seems like a lot.

Maybe I just haven't been paying attention. Maybe this is what happens when district play begins. I don't know - is this normal?

I'm not griping, just making an observation. I mean, other than the obvious bias against the East.

 

[granger]

I think it is pretty normal. Here's what the season looks like so far for 45-point games

55 119 46%
72 117 62%
65 117 56%
52 109 48%
62 113 55%
63 113 56%
54 100 54%
43 79 54%

 

[rainjacktx]

On average, that would be about a 53% mercy rule rate. I'm no statistician, but the 66% expected for Week 9 seems to be significantly higher.

 

[granger]

I think it is pretty normal. Here's what the season looks like so far for 45-point games

55 119 46%
72 117 62%
65 117 56%
52 109 48%
62 113 55%
63 113 56%
54 100 54%
43 79 54%

In the first sentence I was agreeing with your statement. The rest is stating the current condition.

Sorry if this wasn't clear.

 

[rainjacktx]

Oh - sounded like you were saying this season's average was about normal.

Interesting that week one is 42%, and start of district play (week 9) jumps to half-again as much.

Look at me assuming the Toy is gospel. I have come a long way in 14 years.

 

[Fanlcm1]

Do injured players affect the spread of you know about them? I've heard of several lately. Example- walnut springs and Iredell should be a close game to battle out for district win, but I've been told iredells best player is out to an injury, along with at least 2 of their other strarters. Do those kind of things get factored in to the spread predictions?

 

[granger]

Injuries mean nothing. There is no knowledge except previous results...

My preliminary results show 67 45's this week

 

[sixmanfan2007]

Injuries mean nothing. There is no knowledge except previous results...

My preliminary results show 67 45's this week

That is what I count off of your scores page 68 out of 107 with( Sierra Blanca Dell City score) games 45 or over. That is around 64%

Looks like almost 55% of the games played so far this year ended by mercy rule.

 

[Leman Saunders]

I think week 10 will be a bad one for 45ers as well