Almost Perfect Toy

[Johnny South]

By this point in the season I would think that the Computerized Toy would have almost all of it's kinks worked out, with only two games left. What I find peculiar is this. Jonesboro almost 45'd Calvert, and is only half a point better in the rankings. Calvert beat Crowell and is almost 10 points behind them. There are more but, What's the deal?

 

[Elmo]

What??? the most peculiar toy I ever received was a vibrating football field. it did not work at all! It was like 5 year old soccer game everybody herded together. yule tide Johnny

 

[Dale Miller]

By this point in the season I would think that the Computerized Toy would have almost all of it's kinks worked out, with only two games left. What I find peculiar is this. Jonesboro almost 45'd Calvert, and is only half a point better in the rankings. Calvert beat Crowell and is almost 10 points behind them. There are more but, What's the deal?

As has been recounted ad nauseum here, the toy is an algorithm based on a body of work. Games are played on the field, not on paper. One team may have an exceptional game against a team having an off night or maybe missing a key player.
Congratulations to all the teams still actually playing games on the field!

 

[Cochabol]

I understand the body of work argument, but how did Cedar Park Summit pass Veritas in the rankings after losing to them during the same week. Weird stuff. They play in the same district with similar opponents and Veritas had the bigger margins. Veritas beat Summit twice head to head. I'm a math guy and couldn't figure out what data point could have caused this move. Obviously the rankings don't matter in the end, but this one piqued my curiosity.

 

[olderelk]

I understand the body of work argument, but how did Cedar Park Summit pass Veritas in the rankings after losing to them during the same week. Weird stuff. They play in the same district with similar opponents and Veritas had the bigger margins. Veritas beat Summit twice head to head. I'm a math guy and couldn't figure out what data point could have caused this move. Obviously the rankings don't matter in the end, but this one piqued my curiosity.

Something is weird.
Cedar Park Summit (10-3) ranked #84, (#2 TAPPS DIVISION II RANKINGS).
Veritas (12-0) ranked #88, (#3 TAPPS DIVISION II RANKINGS) beat Cedar Park Summit twice, once last week in the playoffs.
Also noticed Evant is now ranked a little higher than Santa Anna, which don't seem right, although Evant not playing Zephyr might have figured in.

Cedar Park Summit (10-3) is currently ranked #84
def #253 Fayette County Sports Association (1-7) 62-7
def #142 Waco Vanguard College Prep (6-5) 50-0
def #68 San Marcos Hill Country Christian (11-1) 61-58
lost to #73 Evant (7-3) 80-74
def #169 SA Castle Hills (6-6) 54-40
lost to #88 Austin Veritas (12-0) 72-50
def #174 New Braunfels Christian (1-7) 62-0
def #177 Kerrville Our Lady of the Hills (3-7) 54-0
def #176 Pflugerville Concordia (4-7) 56-6
def #178 Bulverde Bracken Christian (6-5) 85-72
def #146 Dallas Lakehill (6-5) 69-22
def #197 Conroe Covenant Christian (8-3) 94-52
lost to #88 Austin Veritas (12-0) 60-56
Best win is over #68
Worst loss is from #88
average opponent rating is 253.585384615


Austin Veritas (12-0) is currently ranked #88
def #104 Capital City Christian Home School (6-6) 66-20
def #103 Seguin Lifegate (9-4) 61-28
def #245 Round Rock Christian (0-10) 52-0
def #184 Austin Brentwood Christian (3-5) 72-20
def #176 Pflugerville Concordia (4-7) 90-0
def #178 Bulverde Bracken Christian (6-5) 62-16
def #84 Cedar Park Summit (10-3) 72-50
def #177 Kerrville Our Lady of the Hills (3-7) 64-0
def #169 SA Castle Hills (6-6) 64-12
def #174 New Braunfels Christian (1-7) 54-0
def #169 SA Castle Hills (6-6) 78-38
def #84 Cedar Park Summit (10-3) 60-56
Best win is over #84
Worst loss is from #0
average opponent rating is 251.056666667

 

[Cochabol]

San Marcos Hill Country is ranked higher than Veritas and Summit as well, despite losing to Summit and beating Seguin by closer margins. Perhaps Granger can explain. It looks like TAPPS Division 3 is maybe overrated in the formulas.

 

[granger]

agree Veritas should be higher, but how much? 5 spots? 10 spots?

Look at those strength of schedules.... yikes.

 

[Cochabol]

Not sure where they should be ranked overall. Just seems like they should be higher than San Marcos and especially Summit. It is hard when the strength of schedule is lacking.

 

[sixmanvirgin]

This has been my point about Oakwood for three weeks. They have a losing record (5-6) and are ranked #6 in DII. I comprehend strength of schedule, but they havee one "quality" win (Milford), but lost to everyone else of any ability. We 45'd them, and by the computer, we would be the underdog. Mount Calm beat them by double the computers spread, and yet they would also be an underdog at this point. They would be picked to beat Guthrie, Follett, Mount Calm, Motley County and Southland. Sorry, just doesn't make sense. It doesn't make Granger a bad person, but to not even ask the question, means we were never invested into enjoying the toy in the first place.

Oakwoods win:
Baytown Christian
Milford
Apple Springs
Trinidad
Fannindel

 

[granger]

Oakwood is a peculiar story. They beat Milford and all six losses were to high quality teams. It is strange that some were close and some weren't. They have an outstandingly strong schedule and I think that may boost them a little too much.

Sure, they should be a little lower. It would seem logical to have them in the 30-range I am guessing.

Guys, you can always make a case for a team here and there. It doesn't mean the system sucks. There are almost 300 teams in the system at this time and you cannot place them perfectly. Do I not want people to point this out? Nah. It is good banter. It also allows me to look at issues that may be cropping up not that the system of teams has become so large. Some of the mechanisms within the system need to be tweaked from time-to-time. Things have changed quite a bit from the time I started this over 20 years ago with fewer than 100 teams.

 

[Cochabol]

Special cases don't point out that the system sucks. However, learning from those helps to refine the system. Without Granger and his system, we wouldn't have anything to talk about and the game we love would not have the same following. Many thanks to Granger for his dedication and engagement.

 

[coachbronk]

I stopped getting caught up in rankings years ago but it does make you wonder about formulas when your team is ranked behind a 1-8 team and other teams who didn't make the playoffs.

 

[More Cowbell]

A few weeks ago I made a comment that was ridiculed...

These guys must really buy into the sixmanfootball.com rankings, i''m starting to prefer a more objective MaxPreps ranking system. Sixman seems to rely way to much on strength of schedule, any feedback out there?

Now, going into the State championship games we have the TAPPS D2 ranking conundrum. Glad these boys will settle it on the field.

Now I know why it took so long to get a NCAA college playoff.....

 

[HP Drifter]

think that Granger should ask a "person" from each school where they think their team should be ranked and then use that information to set up rankings. just saying

 

[Blue Bird]

It would be a more than a little tough to shoe horn 60 teams into the top 20 in each division!!

 

[HP Drifter]

Naw, Granger could handle it. 15-20 1st place teams, rest tied for 2nd. Ha

 

[granger]

Naw, Granger could handle it. 15-20 1st place teams, rest tied for 2nd. Ha

wait, only 15-20?

 

[granger]

NEW RANKINGS

1 Borden County 13 0
1 Richland Springs 13 0
1 Crowell 9 3
1 Happy 12 1
1 Jonesboro 12 1
1 Calvert 11 1
1 Garden City 11 2
1 Abbott 11 2
1 Buena Vista 13 0
1 Balmorhea 11 2
1 Milford 10 3
1 Valley 10 2
1 Zephyr 11 2
1 Oakwood 5 6
1 Follett 12 1
1 Knox City 7 3
1 Gorman 9 0
1 Chester 10 1
1 Sterling City 10 2
1 Blum 8 3
1 Aspermont 8 3
1 Mt. Calm 10 1
1 Houston Emery-Weiner 11 2
1 Midland Trinity 11 2
1 Coolidge 8 2
1 Hermleigh 10 2
1 Rockwall Heritage 8 3
1 Baytown Christian 8 3
1 Rochelle 11 2
1 Guthrie 11 2
1 Pasadena First Baptist 11 2
1 Newcastle 9 3
1 Ira 9 2
1 Watauga Harvest 9 3
1 Gordon 11 1
1 Motley County 10 3
1 Southland 11 2
1 Nazareth 9 2
1 Paducah 4 6
1 Spur 6 5
1 Meadow 7 5
1 Petersburg 6 4
1 Anton 6 5
1 SA FEAST Homeschool 10 1
1 Klondike 8 3
1 Groom 6 5
1 Lefors 6 6
1 McLean 6 5
1 Fort Worth THESA 7 4
1 Tioga 8 2
1 White Deer 2 8
1 Miami 5 4
1 WF Wichita Christian 7 5
1 Bryson 6 5
1 WF Notre Dame 9 2
1 Higgins 4 6
1 Kress 5 6
1 Granbury North Central Texas Academy 9 2
1 Amherst 5 6
1 Robert Lee 6 5
1 May 6 5
1 Water Valley 4 6
1 Whitharral 7 5
1 Hart 5 5
1 Silverton 3 7
1 Chillicothe 5 7
1 Forestburg 8 4
1 San Marcos Hill Country Christian 11 1
1 Savoy 8 4
1 Ropes 2 8
1 Wellman-Union 4 5
1 Hedley 5 5
1 Evant 7 3
1 Santa Anna 7 4
1 Waco Live Oak 10 2
1 Dawson 3 7
1 Fort Worth Nazarene 8 3
1 Walnut Springs 8 3
1 Dallas Inspired Vision 11 2
1 Sands 7 4
1 New Home 3 7
1 Cotton Center 5 3
1 Rising Star 7 5
1 Cedar Park Summit 10 3
1 Eden 6 4
1 Waco Methodist Childrens Home 9 4
1 Grandfalls-Royalty 4 6
1 Austin Veritas 12 0
1 Wylie Preparatory 4 6
1 O'Donnell 5 5
1 Paint Rock 5 6
1 Dallas Academy 7 3
1 Westlake Academy 5 5
1 Lucas Christian 5 6
1 Loraine 8 3
1 Willow Park Trinity 9 2
1 Rankin 4 7
1 Marfa 6 3
1 Blanket 4 8
1 Westbrook 5 5
1 Dallas Lutheran 3 7
1 Campbell 3 5
1 Seguin Lifegate 9 4
1 Capital City Christian Home School 6 6
1 Stephenville Faith 9 2
1 Mullin 4 6
1 Abilene Christian 4 7
1 Williamson County Home School 5 4
1 Red Oak Ovilla Christian 5 6
1 Weatherford Christian 9 3
1 Katy Faith West 6 5
1 Grady 2 7
1 Bastrop Tribe Consolidated 10 2
1 Union Hill 7 3
1 Oglesby 6 4
1 Temple Centex Homeschool 6 4
1 Cherokee 5 6
1 Lometa 1 9
1 Giddings State School 5 3
1 Trinidad 3 7
1 Avalon 5 5
1 Gholson 7 4
1 Strawn 4 6
1 Austin NYOS 8 3
1 Austin Hill Country 9 2
1 Longview Trinity 9 3
1 Medina 3 7
1 Sidney 7 3
1 Fannindel 4 6
1 Arlington St. Paul Prep 6 6
1 Cranfills Gap 1 8
1 Plano CHANT 7 5
1 Fredericksburg Heritage 5 6
1 Iredell 6 4
1 Morgan 2 7
1 Corpus Christi Annapolis 6 4
1 Highland 1 9
1 Lingleville 3 7
1 High Island 5 6
1 Sugar Land Logos Prep 5 6
1 Marshall Christian Academy 7 4
1 Waco Vanguard College Prep 6 5
1 Bryan Christian Homeschool (BVCHEA) 10 1
1 Corpus Christi Abundant Life 4 4
1 Rotan 2 8
1 Dallas Lakehill 6 5
1 Decatur Victory Christian 7 1
1 Lewisville Lakeland 3 6
1 Irving Faustina 7 4
1 Corpus Christi WINGS 7 3
1 Dallas Tyler Street 7 4
1 Throckmorton 3 8
1 Huntsville Alpha Omega 5 5
1 Sugar Land HCYA Fort Bend 7 4
1 Lockhart Lighthouse Christian 4 7
1 Denton Calvary 6 5
1 Lueders-Avoca 4 7
1 Blackwell 4 7
1 Rule 7 4
1 Fort Davis 5 5
1 Bronte 1 0
1 Jayton 2 8
1 McKinney Cornerstone 3 6
1 SA Sunnybrook 3 7
1 Lorenzo 4 5
1 Haslet Heritage Christian 2 7
1 Aquilla 3 7
1 Azle Christian 5 5
1 SA Castle Hills 6 6
1 SA The Atonement 2 6
1 Arlington Newman 4 6
1 Lubbock Home School 6 4
1 Whiteface 1 9
1 New Braunfels Christian 1 7
1 Victoria Home School 3 6
1 Pflugerville Concordia 4 7
1 Kerrville Our Lady of the Hills 3 7
1 Bulverde Bracken Christian 6 5
1 Woodson 5 5
1 Richardson Canyon Creek Christian 5 6
1 SA Lutheran 3 4
1 EP Immanuel Christian 6 4
1 Sierra Blanca 4 4
1 Austin Brentwood Christian 3 5
1 SA The Winston 5 5
1 EP Faith 7 2
1 Athens Christian Prep 6 5
1 Plainview Christian 4 8
1 Wilson 5 5
1 Houston Mount Carmel 5 4
1 Kopperl 1 9
1 Covington 4 6
1 Houston Texas Christian 7 2
1 Fort Elliott 0 8
1 Benjamin 4 7
1 Veribest 1 9
1 Conroe Covenant Christian 8 3
1 Apple Springs 4 6
1 Tyler HEAT 5 5
1 Canton EXEL 3 7
1 Leverett's Chapel 1 8
1 Lewisville Founders Classical 2 7
1 Johnson County Sports Association 2 10
1 Brookesmith 1 9
1 Moran 3 7
1 Panther Creek 2 8
1 Paint Creek 3 7
1 Saint Jo 3 7
1 Bryan Allen Academy 1 9
1 Orange Community Christian 4 6
1 Northside 2 8
1 Gustine 1 9
1 Bynum 1 9
1 Granbury Cornerstone 3 8
1 Tyler King's Academy 0 7
1 Crosby Victory and Praise 3 7
1 Brownwood Victory Life 3 7
1 Lohn 1 8
1 Loop 0 9
1 Happy JV 1 0
1 Odessa Latter Rain 2 6
1 Buckholts 1 9
1 Waco Parkview 3 7
1 Lazbuddie 1 8
1 Gold-Burg 0 9
1 Harrold 0 10
1 Penelope 0 10
1 Fort Hancock 1 9
1 Dell City 3 7
1 EP Jesus Chapel 2 6
1 EP Home School 2 8
1 Trent 1 9
1 Sanderson 1 9
1 Lake Jackson Brazosport Christian 2 8
1 Bellville Faith 6 4
1 Carrollton Christian 2 6
1 Spring Branch Living Rock Academy 3 8
1 Patton Springs 0 7
1 Dora NM 0 0
1 Clovis Christian NM 0 0
1 Greenville Christian 0 1
1 Temple Holy Trinity Catholic 1 9
1 Spring Providence Classical 4 4
1 Clear Lake Christian 0 8
1 Round Rock Christian 0 10
1 Alvin Living Stones 2 6
1 Lake Arthur NM 0 0
1 Prairie Lea 2 8
1 Dallas Fairhill 2 5
1 Amarillo Holy Cross 2 5
1 Irving Universal Academy 0 8
1 Midessa Homeschool 1 5
1 Fayette County Sports Association 1 7
1 East Texas Home School 0 4
1 Fruitvale 2 7
1 Selma River City Believers 0 9
1 Killeen Memorial 0 7
1 West Columbia Charter 0 5
1 Conroe Lifestyle Christian 0 9
1 SA River City 0 9
1 SA Great Hearts Monte Vista 1 2
1 Fort Worth Hill 0 8
1 Houston Sanchez Charter 0 4

 

[CowboyP]

I don't like it. My team shouldn't have to share 1st place.

 

[Bill O'Rielly]

Obama rankings!