Why the Guru's Machine stinks and other thoughts

[granger]

I figured I might as well start this since it was suggested on the scores page. My initial response is have at it...

but remember, you are looking at one game for your team. There are ~120 games a week. The system as only as good as who you have played.... it is inherently dumb...

 

[51eleven]

I guess the rankin's were upset tonight by Rankin. Rankin, # 18 in D1 was an underdog to Westbrook # 7 by 42 but 45's them at the half. The Toy doesn't take into account the human factor. It crunches numbers, some sort of advanced logarithms formula, beyond me. It doesn't really understand loss of players from last year or new ones stepping up. Just starts with last year then gets refined over the season.

Does anyone in Rankin know if the old Red Devil Dentist is still around? I need some advice. Another one of those Tortures want's to pull a couple of teeth that don't hurt/aren't loose.

Luck to the Devil's rest of the season.

 

[granger]

No, it does not start with last year's info only...

 

[Devils_Messenger]

I am simply giving Granger a hard time, for years people have complained about “The Toy”, the rankings are always going to really stink in the first half or so of the season.. Spreads and rankings mean squat, but it is nice to be a big underdog and throw “the toy” a wrench in the gears. As far as the RDD goes, he’s still yanking teeth as fast as he can get em, guess he’s got his hands full for now. Too good to talk to us simpletons down here in Devil Land.. *teardrop.. teardrop*

I figured I might as well start this since it was suggested on the scores page. My initial response is have at it...

but remember, you are looking at one game for your team. There are ~120 games a week. The system as only as good as who you have played.... it is inherently dumb...

 

[Devil's_advocate]

I guess the rankin's were upset tonight by Rankin. Rankin, # 18 in D1 was an underdog to Westbrook # 7 by 42 but 45's them at the half. The Toy doesn't take into account the human factor. It crunches numbers, some sort of advanced logarithms formula, beyond me. It doesn't really understand loss of players from last year or new ones stepping up. Just starts with last year then gets refined over the season.

Does anyone in Rankin know if the old Red Devil Dentist is still around? I need some advice. Another one of those Tortures want's to pull a couple of teeth that don't hurt/aren't loose.

Luck to the Devil's rest of the season.

Red Devil DDS is a practicing dentist in Midland!
Look him up...

 

[51eleven]

Dumb? Not hardly. Anyone who's followed the site over the years knows better.

I've never asked. How do you adjust at the start of the year for graduated players and those with potential. Whatever, it's amazing over the years.

 

[Blue Bird]

Come on, it is just a wag. An educated wag, but a wag none the less. Things that Granger cannot account for are move ins, early season injuries or even late season injuries. They can all combine to make the educated wag and the toy look less accurate.

 

[freeagent]

Simple.

Games are played on the field, not on paper (or computer bytes, or whatever newfangled word we're supposed to use). Like they used to say in the NFL, On any given Sunday ... and hey, guess what, every game I've gone to, the scoreboard starts at 0-0.

 

[granger]

try this...

http://sixmanfootball.com/why_test.php?

 

[51eleven]

try this...

http://sixmanfootball.com/why_test.php?

Cool!

 

[51eleven]

try this...

http://sixmanfootball.com/why_test.php?

Bump. Has anyone else tried this?

 

[Ares]

I try not to question the system because it eventually does work itself out. It's just at the beginning where it's usually all over the place. But we're now in Week 5. Mid-point of the regular season. Alot of games these next couple of weeks that will separate the pretenders from contenders. And the rankings will adjust accordingly for the most part.

 

[olderelk]

try this...

http://sixmanfootball.com/why_test.php?

Bump. Has anyone else tried this?

Yes, It's been around for a long time.
On main page, under menu, labeled "Why Test"
It is cool.

 

[oldfat&bald]

Mr Granger Sir is the only guy I know that will create a computer message board for people to complain about the results of what he created for a hobby.

 

[granger]

I try not to question the system because it eventually does work itself out. It's just at the beginning where it's usually all over the place. But we're now in Week 5. Mid-point of the regular season. Alot of games these next couple of weeks that will separate the pretenders from contenders. And the rankings will adjust accordingly for the most part.

If working itself out is over 75% correct from the start then so be it. It is as consistently high as it has been at the start of a season in quite a few years.

1 91 32 0.74
2 102 29 0.78
3 90 33 0.73
4 90 28 0.76

Please remember there are tons of random teams you (not YOU specifically, but everyone) do not care about (be honest). With about 240 teams and 120 games a week it is sometimes hard for fans of a specific team to see the big picture.

It will never reach 90% consistently (hit it once during the regular season last year). Six-man football is so much more of a high variance game than 11-man. A single-player injury can change a season for a team.

 

[FCSA football]

In reality Granger’s rankings mean nothing to UIL teams. Who shows up in Jerrys’s World does.
In that same reality Granger’s Rankings mean EVERYTHING to Independents. Those Rankings, like the old BCS system, determines which teams get invited to compete in the Sixman Independent Bowl Series In Gholson on November 2nd, 2019.
Before the Bowl Series, Independents had no end of season goal to pursue other than their won/lost record. No bragging rights for the Seniors. Now every play of every game matters because Sixman.com determines the rankings and who’s invited and ultimately who will become the Independent State Champion. Pretty Awesome Responsibility! Thanks Granger !

 

[Red_Devil_DDS]

I guess the rankin's were upset tonight by Rankin. Rankin, # 18 in D1 was an underdog to Westbrook # 7 by 42 but 45's them at the half. The Toy doesn't take into account the human factor. It crunches numbers, some sort of advanced logarithms formula, beyond me. It doesn't really understand loss of players from last year or new ones stepping up. Just starts with last year then gets refined over the season.

Does anyone in Rankin know if the old Red Devil Dentist is still around? I need some advice. Another one of those Tortures want's to pull a couple of teeth that don't hurt/aren't loose.

Luck to the Devil's rest of the season.

Speak of the Devil and he shall appear.

 

[Devils_Messenger]

I guess the rankin's were upset tonight by Rankin. Rankin, # 18 in D1 was an underdog to Westbrook # 7 by 42 but 45's them at the half. The Toy doesn't take into account the human factor. It crunches numbers, some sort of advanced logarithms formula, beyond me. It doesn't really understand loss of players from last year or new ones stepping up. Just starts with last year then gets refined over the season.

Does anyone in Rankin know if the old Red Devil Dentist is still around? I need some advice. Another one of those Tortures want's to pull a couple of teeth that don't hurt/aren't loose.

Luck to the Devil's rest of the season.

Speak of the Devil and he shall appear.

ALL HAIL THE UNHOLY ONE! *Tears Of Joy*