Toy always trying to get better

[granger]

Every year I make some adjustments to the rankings. Here's where we stand after five week (by week) with the picks.

ALL GAMES

W-L RECORD​	PERCENTAGE​
76-43​	63.87​
84-33​	71.79​
89-28​	76.07​
79-30​	72.48​
95-17​	84.82​

GAMES WHERE A PUBLIC VARSITY PLAYS A PUBLIC VARSITY

W-L RECORD​	PERCENTAGE​
37-21​	63.79​
36-19​	65.45​
46-11​	80.7​
35-15​	70.0​
49-5​	90.74​

GAMES WHERE A PRIVATE SCHOOL IS INVOLVED

W-L RECORD​	PERCENTAGE​
36-22​	62.07​
47-14​	77.05​
42-17​	71.19​
42-15​	73.68​
46-11​	80.7​

 

[smokeyjoe53]

Just wondering.......have you ever considered making 2 sets of spreads? Maybe not for all the games but possibly the top 5 teams in each division? One could be Toy based the other Gut based........... might be interesting to see if there was a huge difference ........

 

[granger]

I used to do that occasionally in article I wrote in the old newsletter. Might be a possibility.

 

[smokeyjoe53]

Know your boat is pretty well loaded but you might have a little freeboard available.........

 

[granger]

The flip side is I don't like picking against the machine... just let it do the talking and roll with it.

 

[CT6MFL]

maybe you can make a game out of it. let people pick against the machine. Play for bragging rights!

 

[CT6MFL]

and make it a special club

 

[Oldiebutagoodie]

The hard part about sixman vs eleven in rankings is that a key injury or 2 could completely change the outcome of a game. What could have been a 45 point win for Team A turned into a 14 point win for Team B. The rankings and power index numbers have no way to account for those variables. In eleven injuries most likely wont have monumental swings in those that are ranked highly. IMO that is the biggest contributing factor in ranking inaccuracies.

 

[smokeyjoe53]

The hard part about sixman vs eleven in rankings is that a key injury or 2 could completely change the outcome of a game. What could have been a 45 point win for Team A turned into a 14 point win for Team B. The rankings and power index numbers have no way to account for those variables. In eleven injuries most likely wont have monumental swings in those that are ranked highly. IMO that is the biggest contributing factor in ranking inaccuracies.

I think we are talking about spreads............

 

[Johnny South]

The hard part about sixman vs eleven in rankings is that a key injury or 2 could completely change the outcome of a game. What could have been a 45 point win for Team A turned into a 14 point win for Team B. The rankings and power index numbers have no way to account for those variables. In eleven injuries most likely wont have monumental swings in those that are ranked highly. IMO that is the biggest contributing factor in ranking inaccuracies.

I think we are talking about spreads............

No, I think he is talking W's and L's.
You were talking spreads. But, do both with the machine and the gut!

 

[Oldiebutagoodie]

The hard part about sixman vs eleven in rankings is that a key injury or 2 could completely change the outcome of a game. What could have been a 45 point win for Team A turned into a 14 point win for Team B. The rankings and power index numbers have no way to account for those variables. In eleven injuries most likely wont have monumental swings in those that are ranked highly. IMO that is the biggest contributing factor in ranking inaccuracies.

I think we are talking about spreads............

I apologize. I always understood the spread to come from the power index (rating) number they get. Ie: happy is a 353.78 and IRA is 330.72 therefore the spread would be 23pts for happy.
So in my original post I was attempting to cover the rank(which is calculated based on power ranking) and the spread( which is also based on power ranking) so say team A was 45+ higher in power rank but key injuries results in a 14 point loss. My natural assumption is the toy without regard for variables will raise team b considerably and lower team a considerably. Which then scews the next week's spread when team A is healthy again. The beauty is by week 6-7 it pretty well balances out, but may be off week to week especially early.
If that's not it, then I really have no idea how this thing works haha.

My question for guru is: does it track the entire schedule and update it as it goes? Meaning Team A (rank-350) plays team B(rank-390). Team A wins by 45. Next week team B (340) plays team c(300) and team c wins. Does team Bs performance effect team A in week 2? In other words is it cumulative or is it independent week to week? Hope that sort of made sense.

 

[51eleven]

The percentages in games where a private school was involved very much resemble the scores on tests in my last college math class. I scraped by.

 

[smokeyjoe53]

No need to apologize...... I understand how the spreads are derived from the power ratings and related to the rankings. I was attempting to compare 3 things; TOY spreads, "Gut" spreads and actual game results. I was not clear in stating that.

 

[granger]

How you performed and how all of your opponents and opponents-opponents performed can impact the rankings each week. Obviously the system can never be retroactive perfect since true upsets occur one week and that team may lose a stinker the next.

Using the immediately following rankings, to rerun the week, the system is 572-2. Using the current rankings to test all of the games so far it would be 547-27.

 

[coach_gillespie]

572-2 is pretty stinkin impressive...would be interesting to see who the 2 "true" upsets really were....granger??