Watching the thread on playoff scenarios unfold. Interesting as it is, I think too many people are looking at Grangers rankings and overall record as the only indicators of one team compared to another. I will be the first to admit I don't have any idea what kind of formula Granger is using but it seems to be very skewed towards previous year record and the weight given to playing any UIL school. I am always curious how Strength of Schedule should be factored in.
Take Wichita Falls Notre Dame for instance. Ranked #1 by Sixman.com. They have, by all accounts, played a very tough schedule including five UIL schools. Looks like they are on a role and have something to prove after bowing out in the semifinals last season. Average points against 21 while piling up 61 points for. I looked at their opponents wins and losses then averaged the opponent's Granger rating. WFND's opponents have a combined record of 25-20. Their opponents average Granger rating is 201.
Let's look at Seguin Lifegate. Ranked #3 by Sixman.com. They have a very impressive "points against" total of 5.25. They have 45'd every opponent and have also pitched 5 shut-outs. Impressive yes, but let's look at their opponents. Lifegate's opponents have a combined record of 20-25. Their opponent's average Granger rating is 125.
Seems to me that wins are good, but wins against good opponents are even better. The teams ranked below are according to their SOS by my VERY simple calculations, then the opponent's combined record (after week 7). Something to think about.....
#1- El Paso Jesus Chapel 217, 27-22
#2- WFND 201, 25-20
#3- Lubbock Kingdom Prep 185, 21-36
#4- Plainview Christian 163, 16-26
#5- Heath Fulton 150, 25-30
#6- Alvin Living Stones 141, 30-17
#7- Freddy 138, 25-28
#8- Granbury 135, 16-35
#9- Orange 127, 25-23
#10- Seguin 125, 20-25
Things that make you go hmmmm..... Obviously the top four have a higher SOS because they play more UIL schools. But I think this illustrates my point that wins are good but wins against quality opponents are better (WFND). Discuss.........
Take Wichita Falls Notre Dame for instance. Ranked #1 by Sixman.com. They have, by all accounts, played a very tough schedule including five UIL schools. Looks like they are on a role and have something to prove after bowing out in the semifinals last season. Average points against 21 while piling up 61 points for. I looked at their opponents wins and losses then averaged the opponent's Granger rating. WFND's opponents have a combined record of 25-20. Their opponents average Granger rating is 201.
Let's look at Seguin Lifegate. Ranked #3 by Sixman.com. They have a very impressive "points against" total of 5.25. They have 45'd every opponent and have also pitched 5 shut-outs. Impressive yes, but let's look at their opponents. Lifegate's opponents have a combined record of 20-25. Their opponent's average Granger rating is 125.
Seems to me that wins are good, but wins against good opponents are even better. The teams ranked below are according to their SOS by my VERY simple calculations, then the opponent's combined record (after week 7). Something to think about.....
#1- El Paso Jesus Chapel 217, 27-22
#2- WFND 201, 25-20
#3- Lubbock Kingdom Prep 185, 21-36
#4- Plainview Christian 163, 16-26
#5- Heath Fulton 150, 25-30
#6- Alvin Living Stones 141, 30-17
#7- Freddy 138, 25-28
#8- Granbury 135, 16-35
#9- Orange 127, 25-23
#10- Seguin 125, 20-25
Things that make you go hmmmm..... Obviously the top four have a higher SOS because they play more UIL schools. But I think this illustrates my point that wins are good but wins against quality opponents are better (WFND). Discuss.........