Mercy Rule Update 2012

[freeagent]

Ok... since 2004 I've been keeping what I call the "Mercy Rule Update," which tracks how many games end by the 45-point rule.

Hint ... the answer's about half.

Not sure how I'll do it this year, but let's start as I did last year.

Zero Week:

Public school games: 25 of 53 games ended by the 45 point rule (47.2%)
Public schools include all UIL schools, out-of-state public schools, and charter schools that are either UIL members or not a member of any other league (for example, Austin NYOS Charter does not belong to a league, but is eligible for UIL membership. Basically, the only private school league that accepts charter schools is the Texas Christian Athletic League (TCAL). TAPPS does not accept charter schools (as they are tax supported) and I think there may be one charter school member in the Texas Christian Athletic Fellowship league (TCAL).

Public schools vs private schools games: 12 of 27 games ended by the 45 point rule (44.4%)
Of those 27 games, public schools won 15 of the 27 games (55.6%). Last year, private schools won 54.8% of these games, which was the first time they won a majority of these games since I started keeping that stat in 2008.

Private school games: 21 of 36 games ended by the 45 point rule (58.3%)
Private schools include all schools in TAPPS, TCAL and TCAF as well as any unaffiliated private/parochial school teams or legitimate high school home school group teams. Charter schools that belong to a private school league (TCAL) are considered private schools.

There were two private school games that were called due to lightning and those games are not considered in these statistics. A forfeit game (1-0 score) IS considered in these stats but is not counted as a mercy rule game. There were two forfeits (one in public schools, one in private schools) this week.

All games: 58 of 116 games ended by the 45 point rule (50.0%)

116 games compares to 113 games in Zero Week 2011, 118 -2010, 107 -2009. While we crossed the 100 game mark in 10 of the 11 weeks in the past two seasons, we never passed 100 games until the start of the 2009 season.

Total games in 2011 was 1210, plus 117 in the playoffs, down 10 games from 2010 but 125 more than the 2009 season.

Average score in Zero Week was 57.4 to 22.5, a margin of 34.9
Average score of games ending by the 45 point rule was 61.1 to 10.9, a margin of 50.2
Average score of games that went the full 40 minutes was 53.7 to 34.2, a margin of 19.6

Range of winning scores was 23 to 102
Range of losing scores was 0 to 75
Range of margin (difference between winning score and losing score, not including forfeits) was 1 to 81

Comparisons:

Week 0
2012 - 50.0%
2011 - 39.8%
2010 - 39.0%
2009 - 56.1%
2008 - 42.3%
2007 - 43.8%
2006 - 45.2%
2005 - 33.3% (lowest week ever since 2004)
2004 - 45.0%

Season Totals
2011 - 52.4%
2011 with playoffs - 51.7%
2010 - 50.6%
2010 with playoffs - 50.3%
2009 - 51.5%
2009 with playoffs - 51.1%
2008 - 53.7%
2008 with playoffs - 52.7%
2007 - 49.3%
2007 with playoffs - 49.0%
2006 - 47.5%
2005 - 51.7%
2004 - 49.8%

 

[freeagent]

Stop the presses: Update on Petersburg/Knox City score puts that game from the under 45 to the 45 category.

I'm not going to re-run the numbers now except for the total games: 59 of 116 (50.9%)
will figure the correct score in when I do week 1 numbers.

 

[Dogface]

Wow Jonny.
Once again
that's awesome!
I take back what I said about you
not having enough time,
for just about any hair-brained and time-consuming idea we can think up,
and volunteer you for.
jus sayin'.

 

[oldfat&bald]

What we all should be doing is,
like I already said,
thinking up more things,
statistical, inane or otherwise,
for John to do in all his spare time.
jus sayin'.

OK, can he give us the price, the number of jalepenos on, the amount of chili on, the type of cheese used, and the number of Fritos in every frito pie at every concession stand in all of sixman football?

 

[freeagent]

What we all should be doing is,
like I already said,
thinking up more things,
statistical, inane or otherwise,
for John to do in all his spare time.
jus sayin'.

OK, can he give us the price, the number of jalepenos on, the amount of chili on, the type of cheese used, and the number of Fritos in every frito pie at every concession stand in all of sixman football?

All I have are statewide averages.
$2.98. 16. 1.59 ounces. Answers may vary between PBCP, shredded cheese and velvetta types. 36.

 

[Shad Kline]

Not trying to add work, but it would be interesting to see the numbers for d1 UIL vs d2 uil.

 

[freeagent]

Not trying to add work, but it would be interesting to see the numbers for d1 UIL vs d2 uil.

Haven't sliced it that way, but after eight plus years of this stat, it's basically a 50-50 split anyway you cut it. But I may play with the zero week numbers later.

 

[freeagent]

Week 1 Numbers -- games ended by the 45 point rule.

May cut down some of the comparisons (you can see them in the first post).

Week 1 - 2011 119 games-- tied for 2nd most games with weeks 1 and 2 in 2011; we had 123 during week 2 in 2010 and I would not be suprised if we beat that this coming week.

Public schools - 32 of 54 games; 59.3% ended by the 45 point rule
Public schools vs private schools - 12 of 30 games; 40.0%
- Public schools won 18 of the 30 games
Private schools - 18 of 35 games; 51.4%

All games - 62 of 119 games; 52.1%
compares to 57.1% in 2011; 43.1% in 2010 (range for week 1 since 2004 is 43.1%-57.1%)

Average score: 56.3-21.3 (margin 35.1)
Average score in 45 point rule games: 59.6-10.9 (margin 48.7)
Average score in non-45 point rule games: 52.7-32.5 (margin 20.2)
No forfeited games this weekend


Season to date:

Public Schools - 58 of 107 games; 54.2%
Public vs Private Schools - 25 of 58 games; 43.1%
- Public schools have won 33 of the 58 games; 56.9%
Private Schools - 38 of 72 games; 52.8%

All games - 121 of 237 games; 52.1%

So far, we are five games ahead of the game count from 2011 and three ahead of 2010 (which was the highest number of games recorded in a season since 2004 - 1227 (1337 with playoffs); 2011 total was 1210 (1327 with playoffs).

 

[freeagent]

Week 2 Numbers -- games ended by the 45 point rule.


Week 2- 2012 had 117 games (we had 117 in zero week and 121 games in week 1, revised.)

Public schools - 30 of 57 games; 52.6% ended by the 45 point rule
Public schools vs private schools - 9 of 21 games; 42.9%
- Private schools won 11 of the 21 games
Private schools - 13 of 39 games; 33.3%

All games - 52 of 117 games; 44.4%
compares to 50.4% in 2011; 53.6% in 2010 (range for week 1 since 2004 is 40.6%-55.3%)

Average score: 56.5 - 24.3 (margin 32.2)
Average score in 45 point rule games: 62.3 - 11.9 (margin 50.5)
Average score in non-45 point rule games: 51.8 - 34.3 (margin 17.5)
No forfeited games this weekend


Season to date:

Public Schools - 88 of 164 games; 53.7%
Public vs Private Schools - 34 of 79 games; 43.0%
- Public schools have won 43 of the 79 games; 54.4%
Private Schools - 53 of 114 games; 46.5%

All games - 175 of 357 games; 49.0%

So far, we are six games ahead of the game count from 2011 and even with 2010 (which was the highest number of games recorded in a season since 2004 - 1227 (1337 with playoffs); 2011 total was 1210 (1327 with playoffs).

 

[freeagent]

Looks like I missed Week 3, so here's the week 3 and 4 results.

WEEK 3 - Games ended by the 45 point rule

Public schools- 29 of 59 - 49.2%
Public schools vs private schools - 13 of 22 - 59.1%
-- Private schools won 12 of the 22 games
Private schools 16 of 41 - 39.0%

All games 58 of 122 - 47.5%

Average Score - 57.3 to 22.5 (margin 34.9)
No Forfeits

WEEK 4 - Games ended by the 45 point rule

Public schools- 28 of 55 - 50.9%
Public schools vs private schools - 10 of 25 - 40.0%
-- Public schools won 15 of the 25 games
Private schools 16 of 36 - 52.8%

All games 57 of 116 - 47.5%

Average Score - 49.9 to 17.9 (margin 32.0)
7 Forfeits


SEASON TO DATE

Public schools- 145 of 279 - 52.0%
Public schools vs private schools - 57 of 126 - 48.6%
-- Public schools won 68 of the 125 games
Private schools 89 of 194 - 45.9%

All games 291 of 599 - 45.9%

As of week 4, we are TWENTY games ahead of last year and EIGHT games ahead of 2010 (most games) -- and 79 games (think 16 more games every week) ahead of 2009. I also think there are about eight or ten games that we may be missing and for some weird reason, am trying to find ... Also, with a couple extra games found this week, Week 1 2012 tied Week 2 2010 for most games (123) and Week 3 2012 is just one back at 122. But we're averaging around 120 a week this year.

 

[freeagent]

WEEK 5 - Games ended by the 45 point rule



Public schools- 27 of 56 - 48.2%
Public schools vs private schools - 12 of 19 - 57.9%
-- Private schools won 11 of the 19 games
Private schools 14 of 35- 40.0%

All games 52 of 110 - 47.3%

Average Score - 56.2 to 23.1 (margin 33.1)
2 Forfeits

SEASON TO DATE

Public schools- 172 of 335 - 51.3%
Public schools vs private schools - 68 of 145 - 46.9%
-- Public schools won 76 of the 145 games
Private schools 104 of 230 - 45.2%

All games 344 of 710 - 48.5%

23 games ahead of the 2011 pace; 6 games ahead of 2010 (highest no. of games)

 

[freeagent]

USELESS INFORMATION -- Week 6

Games ended by the 45 point rule



Public schools- 33 of 59 - 55.9%
Public schools vs private schools - 7 of 13 - 53.8%
-- Public schools won 8 of the 13 games
Private schools 22 of 42- 52.4%

All games 62 of 114 - 54.4%

Average Score - 58.3 to 21.4 (margin 36.9)
3 Forfeits

SEASON TO DATE

Public schools- 205 of 395 - 51.9%
Public schools vs private schools - 75 of 158 - 47.5%
-- Public schools won 84 of the 158 games
Private schools 126 of 272 - 46.3%

All games 406 of 825 - 49.2%
Average winning margin: 34.0 pts.

24 games ahead of the 2011 pace; 11 games ahead of 2010 (highest no. of games).
Week 7 should be the lightest week of the year (many public schools on bye week); but I still think we will be close to 90 games (85 in 2011, 78 in 2010).

 

[Shad Kline]

Well, you can tell district has started for some. Those percentages are going up.

 

[freeagent]

Week 7 -- Games ended by the 45 point rule



Public schools- 15 of 28 - 53.6%
Public schools vs private schools - 3 of 4 - 75.0%
-- Public schools won 2 of the 4 games
Private schools 29 of 49- 59.2%

All games 47 of 81 - 58.0%

Average Score -57.1 to 19.2 (margin 37.9)
1 Forfeits

SEASON TO DATE

Public schools- 220 of 423 - 52.0%
Public schools vs private schools - 78 of 162 - 48.1%
-- Public schools won 86 of the 162 games
Private schools 155 of 321 - 48.4%

All games 453 of 906 - 50.0% (CORRECTED)
Average winning margin: 34.4 pts.

Only 80 games this week; as has been true in 2010 and 2011, it's a big bye week as many UIL teams take a break before district begins (there were 106 games this week in 2009.

19 games ahead of the 2011 pace; 13 games ahead of 2010 (highest no. of games).

Weeks 8-9-10 are usually slightly lower than the earlier weeks of the season (8-10 games less), my expectation is that we will end regular season 2012 with somewhere around 1235-1240 games.

 

[freeagent]

Week 8 -- Games ended by the 45 point rule



Public schools- 43 of 63 - 68.3%
Public schools vs private schools - 1 of 2 - 50.0%
-- Public schools won 1 of the 2 games
Private schools 26 of 52- 50.0%

All games 70 of 117 - 59.8%

Average Score -55.2 to 18.4 (margin 36.8)
7 Forfeits

SEASON TO DATE

Public schools- 263 of 456 - 54.1%
Public schools vs private schools - 79 of 164 - 48.2%
-- Public schools won 87 of the 162 games (53.0%)
Private schools 181 of 373 - 48.5%

All games 423 of 1023 - 51.1%
Average winning margin: 34.7 pts.

26 games ahead of the 2011 pace; 19 games ahead of 2010 (highest no. of games).

I really expected week 8 to fall around 105-110 games, but 117 is the highest since we had 117 in week 5. I think we'll fall a bit short of 1250 for the regular season, but it will be close.

 

[Brawny]

How do you score a forfeit?

I bet most of them would have been 45ers if played.

 

[freeagent]

How do you score a forfeit?

I bet most of them would have been 45ers if played.

I'll agree that most forfeits would have been 45 games.

But I score them as 1-0 games, and give them the benefit of the doubt.

Also, if a game is called for any other reason (injuries, weather, etc.) and the score differential is less than 45 points, it counts
as a full game.

I've also had a question on who the private vs public school games are. This week, there were two. Fort Hancock is a public school and they beat El Paso Home School (I count home schools with private schools). SA Feast Home School beat Austin NYOS Charter. NYOS is an unaffiliated charter school and eligible to join UIL, so I count them as a public school. However, if the charter school belongs to a private school league (such as TCAL), I count that charter school as a private school.

 

[freeagent]

Looks like I missed Week 9, so here's the week 9 and 10 results. Not real sure I'm gonna do this again in 2013,'cause the numbers really don't change much from year to year. Will do a playoff update after week 15.

WEEK 9 - Games ended by the 45 point rule

Public schools- 39 of 64 - 60.9%
Public schools vs private schools - 1 of 2 - 50.0%
-- Private schools won 1 of the 2 games
Private schools 26 of 44 - 59.1%

All games 66 of 110 - 60.0%

Average Score - 55.3 to 16.3 (margin 39.1)
6 Forfeits

WEEK 10 - Games ended by the 45 point rule

Public schools- 37 of 61 - 60.7%
Public schools vs private schools - 0 of 3 - 0.0%
-- Private schools won 3 of the 3 games
Private schools 23 of 44 - 52.3%

All games 60 of 108 - 55.6%

Average Score - 58.5 to 22.2 (margin 36.3)
2 Forfeits


SEASON TO DATE (complete regular season)

Public schools- 339 of 611 - 55.5%
Public schools vs private schools - 80 of 170 - 47.1%
-- Public schools won 89 of the 170 games (Private schools won 81)
Private schools 230 of 462 - 49.8%

All games 649 of 1243 - 52.2%

1243 games is the highest number of regular season games since I've kept this statistic (since 2004)

Year Total Games 45 Point Games %

2004 .... 899 .............. 448 .............. 49.8%
2005 .... 929 .............. 480 .............. 51.7%
2006 .... 954 .............. 453 .............. 47.5%
2007 .... 974 .............. 480 .............. 49.3%
2008 .... 966 .............. 519 .............. 53.7%
2009 .... 1113 ............. 573 .............. 51.5%
2010 .... 1227 ............. 621 .............. 50.6%
2011 .... 1210 ............. 634 .............. 52.4%
2012 .... 1243 ............. 648 .............. 52.2%

 

[Coyote86]

I find it interesting that the Public School mercy percentages didn't appear to decrease when the UIL split the divisions. You would think that the result would have been more competitive games.

 

[freeagent]

2012 Final Season Mercy Rule Statistics:
Games Ended by the 45 point rule

Playoffs:

Public schools: 29 of 62 (46.8%)

Private schools: 22 of 48 (45.8%)

All Games: 51 of 110 (46.4%)

Average score: 65.9 to 31.0 (margin 34.9)
Average score of 45 point games: 63.9 to 15.0 (margin 48.9)
Average score of under 45 point games: 67.8 to 44.0 (margin 22.8)

By weeks:
Week 11: 29 of 58 games (50.0%)
Week 12: 13 of 30 games (43.3%)
Week 13: 6 of 14 games (42.9%)
Week 14: 2 of 6 games (33.3%)
Week 14: 1 of 2 games (50.0%)

Total Season 2012 with playoffs:

Public schools: 368 of 673 games (54.7%)
Public schools vs Private schools: 80 of 170 games (47.1%)
--- Public schools won 89 games, private schools 81 games
Private schools: 252 of 510 games (49.4%)

All games: 700 of 1353 games (51.7%)

1353 games is an increase of 26 games over 2011 (approx. 2%) and 16 games over 2010 which was the highest number I recorded since starting these stats in 2004. (2004 number was 899 games, without playoffs, which probably would have added around 100 games.)

I'm pretty sure one of the previous posts have the comparisons of totals 2004 to 2011, so I'm not going to repeat them here. However, the percentage of games ending by the 45 point rule haven't significantly changed over that time ... it runs between 47.5% (2006) to around 52%.

I'm not sure I'm going to keep these stats next year ... will think about it a bit.