Mercy Rule Update 2011

[freeagent]

Let's try this again for 2011 ... assuming anyone ever reads it ... for the last eight seasons (including this one), I've tracked the number of games which end early by the "mercy rule," or 45-point rule. Also tracks the number of games played and all sorts of other useless junk.

WEEK ZERO - 2011

Public School Games Played: 54
Public School Games Ended by the 45 Point Rule: 21
38.9%

Public/Private School Games Played: 19
Public/Private School Games Ended by the 45 Point Rule: 7
43.2%

(Of the 19 games, private schools won 12 of the 19 games)

Private School Games Played: 37
Private School Games Ended by the 45 Point Rule: 16
40.0%

Total Games Played: 110
Total Games Ended by the 45 Point Rule: 44
40.0%

Average Score: 55.0 to 22.8 (Margin 32.2)
Average Score of games ended by 45 point rule: 60.0 to 8.9 (Margin 51.0)
Average Score of games not ended by the 45 point rule: 51.7 to 32.1 (Margin 19.6)

Range of winning scores: 24 to 109
Range of losing scores: 0 to 105
Range of winning margins: 1 to 82
Number of forfeit games: 0

Comparisons:
Zero Week games ended by 45 point rule
2010 - 39.0%
2009 - 56.1%
2008 - 42.3%
2007 - 43.8%
2006 - 45.2%
2005 - 33.3%
2004 - 45.0%

Total Season games ended by 45 point rule
2010 - 50.6% (50.3% including playoffs) = 1227 games (1337 w/playoffs)
2009 - 51.5% (51.1% including playoffs) = 1113 games (1202 w/playoffs)
2008 - 53.7% (52.7% including playoffs) = 966 games (1045 w/playoffs)
2007 - 49.3% (49.0% including playoffs) = 974 games (1052 w/playoffs)
2006 - 47.5% regular season only = 954 games
2005 - 51.7% regular season only = 929 games
2004 - 49.8 % regular season only = 899 games

 

[dataguy]

Thanks, lifegatesports. I don't know about everyone else, but I like to read the data you post. Good stuff!

 

[justobserving]

Good stuff Lifegate.

Appreciate the time and effort it takes to put stuff like this together. When I first started quoting stats people jumped all over me ....

 

[crkeaton]

lifegate,

Appreciate the time and effort you put into this. I personally like the off-the-wall stats. Keep up the GOOD WORK!!!

 

[freeagent]

Mercy Rule Update - Week 1
Games Ending under the 45-point rule

WEEK ONE RESULTS:

Public Schools: 32 of 54 games (59.3%)

Public Schools vs. Private Schools: 13 of 27 games (60.5%)
Of these 27 games, private schools won 18 of these games (see note below)

Private Schools: 23 of 38 games (60.5%)

All Games: 68 of 119 games (57.1%)

Average Score: 57.7-20.9 (Margin 36.7)
Average Score of games ended by 45 point rule: 62.0 to 12.5 (Margin 49.5)
Average Score of games not ended by the 45 point rule: 51.9 to 32.2 (Margin 19.8)

Range of winning scores: 18 to 122
Range of losing scores: 0 to 120
Range of winning margins: 1 to 69
Number of forfeit games: 2

Comparisons:
Week 1 games ended by 45 point rule
2010 - 43.1%
2009 - 50.9%
2008 - 55.3%
2007 - 40.6%
2006 - 49.0%
2005 - 50.5%
2004 - 48.2%

SEASON TO DATE RESULTS:

Public Schools: 53 of 108 games (49.1%)

Public Schools vs. Private Schools: 20 of 46 games (43.5%)
Of these 46 games, private schools won 30 of these games (see note below)

Private Schools: 39 of 76 games (51.3%)

All Games: 112 of 230 games (48.7%)

Total Season games ended by 45 point rule
2010 - 50.6% (50.3% including playoffs) = 1227 games (1337 w/playoffs)
2009 - 51.5% (51.1% including playoffs) = 1113 games (1202 w/playoffs)
2008 - 53.7% (52.7% including playoffs) = 966 games (1045 w/playoffs)
2007 - 49.3% (49.0% including playoffs) = 974 games (1052 w/playoffs)
2006 - 47.5% regular season only = 954 games
2005 - 51.7% regular season only = 929 games
2004 - 49.8 % regular season only = 899 games

Notes & Comments

1. Total game count, we're 4 games under last season's count through week 1. However, the 119 games this week was the second highest number I've recorded since I started this in 2004. Record is 123 in week 2 last year; I would not be suprised if we break that this coming week as there are several private schools who actually will be starting their season with Week 2 games.

With one exception (week 7, with only 78 games), all weeks last year had at least 108 games. Until the 2009 season, we never had a week of more than 100 games. Since then, 19 of the past 24 weeks (regular season) have been over 100 games. Back in 2004, it was slightly over 80 games a week.

2. Probably should talk about how I define public vs. private school teams. Teams in UIL (or public schools from other states) are public schools. Teams in TAPPS, T-CAL, TCAF (or private schools from other states) are private schools. There is a "no-mans land" with some of the charter and un-affiilated schools. If it is a tax-supported school (such as a charter school) that is affiliated with T-CAL (which allows them to join), I'll count them as a private school. TCAF allows member schools to have limited home-school participation, but does not admit charter or home schools. TAPPS does not allow home school participation, either individually or as teams. Also, charter schools are not eligible for membership (TAPPS by laws do not permit tax supported schools to join, although there are a couple that were grandfathered -- Gatesville and Giddings State Schools and Austin Texas School for the Deaf -- all playing 11 man ball).

However, if it is a charter school NOT affiliated with any league (including UIL, where they are eligible to join), I count them as a public school. An example of this is Austin NYOS. Non-affiliated private schools are counted as private schools. Examples of these schools (or home school groups) are Dallas Winston or Austin Christian Home School.

A surpising bit of data is the large lead private schools have in wins over public schools so far this year. Last year, the privates had a slight lead through week 1 and the public schools came back (won 88 of 163). This year, I'll attribute the lead to a lot of new charter schools coming aboard, which would be weaker teams.

Also, of the 119 games this week, over half (65) involved a private school team (38 private school games and 27 public/private games). Seriously, I expect within five years that we may have more private schools playing sixman football than public schools (and note, I'm counting all the home school groups that have formed in the past several years as private schools).

While this count may include some schools not playing this year, here's where I see the high school squads this year:

Unaffiliated charter schools: 4
Unaffiliated home school groups: 7
Unaffiliated private schools: 2
TAPPS schools (includes independents): 59
TCAF schools: 22 (Texas Christian Athletic Fellowship)
T-CAL schools: 32 (Texas Christian Athletic League) [6 schools are charter schools, 13 are home school groups]

UIL "outlaws" (members who play independent): 11 [3 of these are charter schools]
UIL schools in districts: 131 [4 of these are charter schools]

Total private leagues/unaffiliated: 126
Total UIL: 142
Total Schools: 268

 

[Dogface]

Most people don't know this but,

Jack Bauer used to play 6man fb.

That's why the mercy rule.

 

[freeagent]

Most people don't know this but,

Jack Bauer used to play 6man fb.

That's why the mercy rule.

And he used to play against Chuck Norris ... we may have to move this thread if we get that one going ...

 

[smokeyjoe53]

Dammitchloe

 

[freeagent]

Mercy Rule Update - Week 2
Games Ending under the 45-point rule

WEEK TWO RESULTS:

Public Schools: 30 of 57 games (52.6%)

Public Schools vs. Private Schools: 11 of 22 games (60.5%)
Of these 22 games, private schools and public schools won 11 each

Private Schools: 23 of 39 games (59.0%)

All Games: 64 of 118 games (54.2%)

Average Score: 57.8-21.1 (Margin 36.6)
Average Score of games ended by 45 point rule: 60.7 to 10.6 (Margin 50.1)
Average Score of games not ended by the 45 point rule: 54.2 to 33.6 (Margin 20.6)

Range of winning scores: 29 to 87
Range of losing scores: 0 to 71
Range of winning margins: 1 to 61
Number of forfeit games: 0

Comparisons:
Week 2 games ended by 45 point rule
2010 - 50.4%
2009 - 53.6%
2008 - 55.0%
2007 - 45.2%
2006 - 49.5%
2005 - 46.2%
2004 - 45.2%

SEASON TO DATE RESULTS:

Public Schools: 83 of 165 games (50.3%)

Public Schools vs. Private Schools: 31 of 68 games (45.6%)
Of these 68 games, private schools won 41 of these games

Private Schools: 62 of 115 games (53.9%)

All Games: 176 of 348 games (54.2%)

We are 9 games behind the pace of total games for 2010 (357 games in 2010 through week 2)

Total Season games ended by 45 point rule
2010 - 50.6% (50.3% including playoffs) = 1227 games (1337 w/playoffs)
2009 - 51.5% (51.1% including playoffs) = 1113 games (1202 w/playoffs)
2008 - 53.7% (52.7% including playoffs) = 966 games (1045 w/playoffs)
2007 - 49.3% (49.0% including playoffs) = 974 games (1052 w/playoffs)
2006 - 47.5% regular season only = 954 games
2005 - 51.7% regular season only = 929 games
2004 - 49.8 % regular season only = 899 games

 

[justobserving]

LIfegate - Can you extrapolate the data and get the rankings of the Public Schools involved in the games with the Private schools. I would be interested to see the competition level the win / loss figures are coming from ??

Not trying to stir the pot here or crank up the ole private vs public debate .... just curious. Just some more data numbers to look at.

 

[freeagent]

LIfegate - Can you extrapolate the data and get the rankings of the Public Schools involved in the games with the Private schools. I would be interested to see the competition level the win / loss figures are coming from ??

Not trying to stir the pot here or crank up the ole private vs public debate .... just curious. Just some more data numbers to look at.

I'll try....but one thing that does affect the results is the new charter schools that have come into being in the past few years. UNLESS they belong to T-CAL (which is the only private school league that will admit tax-supported charter schools), I count them as public schools even if they do not belong to UIL (an example would be Austin NYOS).

Last year, the private schools held a slight lead after the first two weeks, but then public schools took the lead. This year, the private schools have a pretty good edge (I think +16 or so), but last week was even (11-11).

It will take me some time, but I can come up with that data.

But in no way am I telling you that the top private schools are even with the top public schools, year in and year out. There's going to be a time that there is another El Paso Jesus Chapel of the late 90s that could hang ... and beat ... anybody. But like I say, the reason the David and Goliath story is popular is that most nights, Goliath would win.

 

[justobserving]

LIfegate - Can you extrapolate the data and get the rankings of the Public Schools involved in the games with the Private schools. I would be interested to see the competition level the win / loss figures are coming from ??

Not trying to stir the pot here or crank up the ole private vs public debate .... just curious. Just some more data numbers to look at.

I'll try....but one thing that does affect the results is the new charter schools that have come into being in the past few years. UNLESS they belong to T-CAL (which is the only private school league that will admit tax-supported charter schools), I count them as public schools even if they do not belong to UIL (an example would be Austin NYOS).

Last year, the private schools held a slight lead after the first two weeks, but then public schools took the lead. This year, the private schools have a pretty good edge (I think +16 or so), but last week was even (11-11).

It will take me some time, but I can come up with that data.

But in no way am I telling you that the top private schools are even with the top public schools, year in and year out. There's going to be a time that there is another El Paso Jesus Chapel of the late 90s that could hang ... and beat ... anybody. But like I say, the reason the David and Goliath story is popular is that most nights, Goliath would win.

I totally understand, that "Horse"

has been beat to death and I am not going there. Just curiosity at work here ?

Appreciate the effort ..

 

[JAFO]

good rule for safety reasons

 

[freeagent]

Mercy Rule Update - Week 3
Games Ending under the 45-point rule

WEEK THREE RESULTS:

Public Schools: 33 of 55 games (60.0%)

Public Schools vs. Private Schools: 9 of 21 games (42.9%)
Of these 21 games, private schools won 12 and public schools won 9

Private Schools: 18 of 37 games (48.6%)

All Games: 60 of 113 games (53.1%)

Average Score: 55.5-18.1 (Margin 37.4)
Average Score of games ended by 45 point rule: 62.1 to 10.6 (Margin 51.6)
Average Score of games not ended by the 45 point rule: 47.9 to 26.6 (Margin 21.3)

Range of winning scores: 14 to 96
Range of losing scores: 0 to 70
Range of winning margins: 1 to 69
Number of forfeit games: 0

Comparisons:
Week 3 games ended by 45 point rule
2010 - 54.3%
2009 - 56.5%
2008 - 50.0%
2007 - 42.1%
2006 - 46.1%
2005 - 44.0%
2004 - 46.3%

SEASON TO DATE RESULTS:

Public Schools: 116 of 220 games (52.7%)

Public Schools vs. Private Schools: 40 of 89 games (44.9%)
Of these 89 games, private schools won 53 of these games

Private Schools: 80 of 153 games (52.3%)

All Games: 236 of 462 games (51.1%)

We are 11 games behind the pace of total games for 2010 (473 games in 2010 through week 2)

Total Season games ended by 45 point rule
2010 - 50.6% (50.3% including playoffs) = 1227 games (1337 w/playoffs)
2009 - 51.5% (51.1% including playoffs) = 1113 games (1202 w/playoffs)
2008 - 53.7% (52.7% including playoffs) = 966 games (1045 w/playoffs)
2007 - 49.3% (49.0% including playoffs) = 974 games (1052 w/playoffs)
2006 - 47.5% regular season only = 954 games
2005 - 51.7% regular season only = 929 games
2004 - 49.8 % regular season only = 899 games

 

[freeagent]

Mercy Rule Update - Week 4
Games Ending under the 45-point rule

WEEK FOUR RESULTS:

Public Schools: 21 of 51 games (41.2%)

Public Schools vs. Private Schools: 15 of 24 games (62.5%)
Of these 24 games, public schools won 13 and private schools won 11

Private Schools: 18 of 40 games (45.0%)

All Games: 54 of 115 games (47.0%)

Average Score: 58.8-23.5 (Margin 35.2)
Average Score of games ended by 45 point rule: 61.4 to 10.4 (Margin 50.9)
Average Score of games not ended by the 45 point rule: 56.5 to 35.1 (Margin 21.3)

Range of winning scores: 19 to 124
Range of losing scores: 0 to 108
Range of winning margins: 3 to 72
Number of forfeit games: 0

Comparisons:
Week 4 games ended by 45 point rule
2010 - 45.8%
2009 - 51.0%
2008 - 56.4%
2007 - 58.1%
2006 - 47.8%
2005 - 54.2%
2004 - 54.5%

SEASON TO DATE RESULTS:

Public Schools: 137 of 271 games (50.6%)

Public Schools vs. Private Schools: 55 of 113 games (48.7%)
Of these 113 games, private schools won 64 of these games

Private Schools: 98 of 193 games (50.8%)

All Games: 290 of 577 games (50.3%)

We are 14 games behind the pace of total games for 2010 (591 games in 2010 through week 2)

Total Season games ended by 45 point rule
2010 - 50.6% (50.3% including playoffs) = 1227 games (1337 w/playoffs)
2009 - 51.5% (51.1% including playoffs) = 1113 games (1202 w/playoffs)
2008 - 53.7% (52.7% including playoffs) = 966 games (1045 w/playoffs)
2007 - 49.3% (49.0% including playoffs) = 974 games (1052 w/playoffs)
2006 - 47.5% regular season only = 954 games
2005 - 51.7% regular season only = 929 games
2004 - 49.8 % regular season only = 899 games

 

[freeagent]

Mercy Rule Update - Week 5
Games Ending under the 45-point rule

WEEK FIVE RESULTS:

Public Schools: 29 of 55 games (52.7%)

Public Schools vs. Private Schools: 5 of 13 games (38.5%)
Of these 13 games, private schools won 9 and public schools won 4

Private Schools: 20 of 40 games (50.0%)

All Games: 54 of 108 games (50.0%)

Average Score: 57.1-23.7 (Margin 33.4)
Average Score of games ended by 45 point rule: 59.9 to 10.3 (Margin 49.6)
Average Score of games not ended by the 45 point rule: 54.3 to 37.1 (Margin 17.2)

Range of winning scores: 20 to 97
Range of losing scores: 0 to 86
Range of winning margins: 1 to 70
Number of forfeit games: 2

Comparisons:
Week 5 games ended by 45 point rule
2010 - 47.8%
2009 - 44.4%
2008 - 49.4%
2007 - 48.9%
2006 - 42.4%
2005 - 58.2%
2004 - 48.4%

SEASON TO DATE RESULTS:

Public Schools: 166 of 326 games (50.9%)

Public Schools vs. Private Schools: 61 of 127 games (48.0%)
Of these 127 games, private schools won 73 of these games
(This stat has been revised to include at least one missed game from previous weeks)

Private Schools: 119 of 234 games (50.8%)

All Games: 346 of 687 games (50.9%)

We are 17 games behind the pace of total games for 2010 (704 games in 2010 through week 5).
We could "catch up" a bit in week 7, as we only had 78 games that week (many public schools took it as a bye week).

Total Season games ended by 45 point rule
2010 - 50.6% (50.3% including playoffs) = 1227 games (1337 w/playoffs)
2009 - 51.5% (51.1% including playoffs) = 1113 games (1202 w/playoffs)
2008 - 53.7% (52.7% including playoffs) = 966 games (1045 w/playoffs)
2007 - 49.3% (49.0% including playoffs) = 974 games (1052 w/playoffs)
2006 - 47.5% regular season only = 954 games
2005 - 51.7% regular season only = 929 games
2004 - 49.8 % regular season only = 899 games

 

[SavannahSixManFan]

Lifegatesports you are a statistical guru...

 

[freeagent]

Lifegatesports you are a statistical guru...

Or an idiot, the jury's out on that one ...

 

[SavannahSixManFan]

What do you do for your paying job?

 

[freeagent]

From the useless information department:

Mercy Rule Update - Week 6
Games Ending under the 45-point rule

WEEK SIX RESULTS:

Public Schools: 31 of 57 games (54.4%)

Public Schools vs. Private Schools: 9 of 13 games (69.2%)
Of these 13 games, private schools won 8 and public schools won 5

Private Schools: 24 of 44 games (54.5%)

All Games: 64 of 114 games (56.1%)

Average Score: 54.9-19.2 (Margin 35.7)
Average Score of games ended by 45 point rule: 60.4 to 10.4 (Margin 50.0)
Average Score of games not ended by the 45 point rule: 47.8 to 30.4 (Margin 17.4)

Range of winning scores: 21 to 104
Range of losing scores: 0 to 82
Range of winning margins: 1 to 72
Number of forfeit games: 2

Comparisons:
Week 6 games ended by 45 point rule
2010 - 57.3%
2009 - 46.2%
2008 - 45.9%
2007 - 52.3%
2006 - 41.0%
2005 - 55.8%
2004 - 52.4%

SEASON TO DATE RESULTS:

Public Schools: 197 of 383 games (51.4%)

Public Schools vs. Private Schools: 70 of 140 games (50.0%)
Of these 140 games, private schools won 81 of these games (57.9%)

Private Schools: 143 of 278 games (51.4%)

All Games: 346 of 687 games (50.9%)

We are 13 games behind the pace of total games for 2010 (814 games in 2010 through week 5). Let's see how many public schools take a bye in week 7 ... last year, there were only 78 games that week.

Total Season games ended by 45 point rule
2010 - 50.6% (50.3% including playoffs) = 1227 games (1337 w/playoffs)
2009 - 51.5% (51.1% including playoffs) = 1113 games (1202 w/playoffs)
2008 - 53.7% (52.7% including playoffs) = 966 games (1045 w/playoffs)
2007 - 49.3% (49.0% including playoffs) = 974 games (1052 w/playoffs)
2006 - 47.5% regular season only = 954 games
2005 - 51.7% regular season only = 929 games
2004 - 49.8 % regular season only = 899 games