Mercy Rule update/1382 Games in 2013

[freeagent]

I think I'm going to cut back on all the statistics (or at least posting them each week) and do a shortened version... so here's the Zero Week data on games ending by the 45 point rule.

Public Schools: 30 of 58 games, 51.7%
Public Schools vs Private Schools: 12 of 23 games, 52.2%
(Public schools won 13 of the 23 games)
Private Schools: 16 of 46 games, 34.8%

All Games: 58 of 127 games, 45.7%

That compares to 49.6% in Week 0, 2012 and 51.7% on all games in 2012.

Average score: 54.7-22.0

One bit of history, from 2004-2012, I've recorded 10,098 games (regular season only 2004 to 2006, added playoffs in 2007-2012). 5,121 of them, or 50.7% ended by the 45 point rule.

The simple takeaway; about half the six-man games played end sometime from halftime before the end of the 40 minutes by the 45 point rule. (Forfeits are not considered ended by the 45 point rule.)

 

[freeagent]

Games ended by the 45 point rule
Week 1 numbers: Again 127 games (up 12 games so far 2013 vs 2012)

Public Schools: 36 of 54 games, 66.7%
Public Schools vs Private Schools: 15 of 25 games, 60.0%
(Public schools won 14 of the 25 games)
Private Schools: 19 of 48 games, 39.6%

All Games: 70 of 127 games, 55.1%
(includes 1 forfeit, forfeits are NOT counted as games ended by the 45 point rule; also games suspended for any reason -- injuries, weather, etc. are not counted as ended by the 45 point rule.)

That compares to 52.9% in Week 1, 2012 and 51.7% on all games in 2012.

Average score: 54.2-17.7

Season to date:

Public Schools: 66 of 112 games, 58.9%
Public Schools vs Private Schools: 27 of 48 games, 56.3%
(Public schools won 27 of the 48 games)
Private Schools: 35 of 94 games, 37.2%

All Games: 128 of 254 games, 50.4%

 

[freeagent]

Week 2 numbers: 125 games (up 18 games so far 2013 vs 2012)

Public Schools: 29 of 54 games, 53.7%
Public Schools vs Private Schools: 14 of 23 games, 60.9%
(Public schools won 15 of the 23 games)
Private Schools: 22 of 48 games, 45.8%

All Games: 65 of 125 games, 52.0%
(includes 2 forfeits, forfeits are NOT counted as games ended by the 45 point rule; also games suspended for any reason -- injuries, weather, etc. are not counted as ended by the 45 point rule.)

That compares to 44,6% in Week 2, 2012 and 51.7% on all games in 2012.

Average score: 55.8-20.5

Season to date:

Public Schools: 95 of 166 games, 57.2%
Public Schools vs Private Schools: 41 of 71 games, 57.7%
(Public schools won 42 of the 71 games)
Private Schools: 57 of 142 games, 40.1%

All Games: 193 of 379 games, 50.9%

 

[freeagent]

Week 3 numbers: 110 games (up 6 games so far 2013 vs 2012) -- 13 weather-related cancellations really hurt this week

Public Schools: 26 of 57 games, 45.6%
Public Schools vs Private Schools: 11 of 18 games, 61.1%
(Public schools won 10 of the 18 games)
Private Schools: 24 of 35 games, 68.6%

All Games: 61 of 110 games, 55.5%
(includes 3 forfeits, forfeits are NOT counted as games ended by the 45 point rule; also games suspended for any reason -- injuries, weather, etc. -- but considered a final score by the teams involved -- are not counted as ended by the 45 point rule. Cancellations do not count as games played.)

That compares to 47.2% in Week 3, 2012 and 51.7% on all games in 2012.

Average score: 54.3 to 18.2

Season to date:

Public Schools: 121 of 223 games, 54.3%
Public Schools vs Private Schools: 52 of 90 games, 57.8%
(Public schools won 52 of the 90 games)
Private Schools: 81 of 177 games, 45.8%

All Games: 254 of 490 games, 51.8%

 

[freeagent]

Week 4 numbers: 121 games (up 12 games so far 2013 vs 2012)

Public Schools: 34 of 52 games, 65.4%
Public Schools vs Private Schools: 9 of 22 games, 40.9%
(Private schools won 12 of the 22 games)
Private Schools: 24 of 47 games, 51.1%

All Games: 67 of 121 games, 55.4%
(includes 1 forfeit, forfeits are NOT counted as games ended by the 45 point rule; also games suspended for any reason -- injuries, weather, etc. -- but considered a final score by the teams involved -- are not counted as ended by the 45 point rule. Cancellations do not count as games played.)

That compares to 49.6% in Week 3, 2012 and 51.7% on all games in 2012. We seem to be running a bit higher than the 2012 numbers, but honestly, these numbers tend to stay in the 40-50% range year after year.

Average score: 54.8 to 19.2

Season to date:

Public Schools: 155 of 275 games, 56.4%
Public Schools vs Private Schools: 62 of 113 games, 54.9%
(Public schools won 62 of the 113 games)
Private Schools: 105 of 225 games, 46.7%

All Games: 322 of 613 games, 52.5%

 

[freeagent]

Week 5 numbers: 114 games (up 15 games so far 2013 vs 2012)

Public Schools: 28 of 50 games, 56.0%
Public Schools vs Private Schools: 4 of 20 games, 20.0%
(Public schools won 11 of the 20 games)
Private Schools: 21 of 44 games, 47.7%

All Games: 53 of 114 games, 46.5%
(includes 2 forfeit, forfeits are NOT counted as games ended by the 45 point rule; also games suspended for any reason -- injuries, weather, etc. -- but considered a final score by the teams involved -- are not counted as ended by the 45 point rule. Cancellations do not count as games played.)

That compares to 46.8% in Week 5, 2012 and 51.7% on all games in 2012.

Average score: 57.8 to 24.8

Season to date:

Public Schools: 183 of 325 games, 56.3%
Public Schools vs Private Schools: 66 of 133 games, 49.6%
(Public schools won 73 of the 113 games)
Private Schools: 126 of 269 games, 46.8%

All Games: 375 of 727 games, 51.6%

 

[freeagent]

Week 6 numbers: 115 games (up 14 games so far 2013 vs 2012)

Public Schools: 30 of 55 games, 54.5%
Public Schools vs Private Schools: 6 of 11 games, 54.5%
(Public schools won 6 of the 11 games)
Private Schools: 27 of 49 games, 55.1%

All Games: 63 of 115 games, 54.8%

(includes 1 forfeit, forfeits are NOT counted as games ended by the 45 point rule; also games suspended for any reason -- injuries, weather, etc. -- but considered a final score by the teams involved -- are not counted as ended by the 45 point rule. Cancellations do not count as games played.)

That compares to 53.9% in Week 6, 2012 and 51.7% on all games in 2012.

Average score: 59.1 to 23.3

Season to date:

Public Schools: 213 of 380 games, 56.1%
Public Schools vs Private Schools: 72 of 144 games, 50.0%
(Public schools won 79 of the 144 games)
Private Schools: 153 of 317 games, 48.3%

All Games: 438 of 841 games, 52.1%

Next week (Week 7) is our "light" week -- last year only 81 games; already have 89 games on the schedule this year.

 

[freeagent]

Week 7 numbers: 91 games (up 24 games so far 2013 vs 2012); week 7 seems to be the "light week" due to many public schools taking their bye week before district play. But about 5 years ago, 91 games would be considered a "busy week,"

Public Schools: 17 of 31 games, 54.8%
Public Schools vs Private Schools: 7 of 10 games, 70.0%
(Public schools won 5 of the 10 games)
Private Schools: 27 of 50 games, 54.0%

All Games: 51 of 91 games, 56.0%

(includes 2 forfeit, forfeits are NOT counted as games ended by the 45 point rule; also games suspended for any reason -- injuries, weather, etc. -- but considered a final score by the teams involved -- are not counted as ended by the 45 point rule. Cancellations do not count as games played.)

That compares to 58.0% in Week 7, 2012 and 51.7% on all games in 2012.

Average score: 57.9 to 20.7

Season to date:

Public Schools: 230 of 411 games, 56.0%
Public Schools vs Private Schools: 79 of 154 games, 51.3%
(Public schools won 84 of the 154 games)
Private Schools: 180 of 367 games, 49.0%

All Games: 489 of 932 games, 52.5%

Already have 122 games on the book for week 8.

 

[freeagent]

Week 8 numbers: 120 (up 27 games so far 2013 vs 2012)

Games Ended by the 45 point rule.

Public Schools: 45 of 66 games, 68.2%
Public Schools vs Private Schools: 0 of 2 games, 0.0%
(Public schools won 2 of the 2 games)
Private Schools: 21 of 52 games, 40.4%

All Games: 66 of 120 games, 55.0%

(includes 6 forfeits and 2 cancellations, forfeits are NOT counted as games ended by the 45 point rule; also games suspended for any reason -- injuries, weather, etc. -- but considered a final score by the teams involved -- are not counted as ended by the 45 point rule. Cancellations do not count as games played.)

That compares to 59.8% in Week 7, 2012 and 51.7% on all games in 2012.

Average score: 58.4 to 22.2

Season to date:

Public Schools: 275 of 477 games, 57.7%
Public Schools vs Private Schools: 79 of 156 games, 50.6%
(Public schools won 86 of the 154 games)
Private Schools: 200 of 419 games, 47.7%

All Games: 554 of 1052 games, 52.7%

With the games on the books for weeks 9 and 10, we are going to be +10 or so games from 2012, but I expect that number to increase as two leagues (TCAF and Div. II T-CAL) start playoffs in Week 10 and the Ironman tournament adds games that week as well.

 

[PopRay]

Great job Freeagent! Interesting how this works out. Thank you!

 

[freeagent]

Week 9 numbers: 113 games (up 31 games so far 2013 vs 2012)

Games Ended by the 45 point rule.

Public Schools: 41 of 66 games, 62.1%
Public Schools vs Private Schools: 0 of 1 games, 0.0%
(Public schools won 1 of the 1 games)
Private Schools: 27 of 46 games, 58.7%

All Games: 68 of 113 games, 60.2%

(includes 4 forfeits and 4 cancellations, forfeits are NOT counted as games ended by the 45 point rule; also games suspended for any reason -- injuries, weather, etc. -- but considered a final score by the teams involved -- are not counted as ended by the 45 point rule. Cancellations do not count as games played.)

That compares to 60.0% in Week 9, 2012 and 51.7% on all games in 2012.

Average score: 59.1 to 21.7

Season to date:

Public Schools: 316 of 543 games, 58.2%
Public Schools vs Private Schools: 79 of 157 games, 50.3%
(Public schools won 87 of the 154 games)
Private Schools: 227 of 466 games, 48.7%

All Games: 622 of 1166 games, 53.3%

It's a stat that really doesn't change very much from week to week ... this was the highest week of the season at 60.2%, only two weeks under 50% (weeks 0 and 5), with the low in week 0 at 45.7%.

 

[Blue Bird]

Going back to week 8. Forty-five is two more than Granger's toy had predicted. It really getting accurate.

 

[PopRay]

BB...for the most part it(the toy) is accurate...but predicting a blowout is not that difficult of a task, when over half of the games usually end up that way...

 

[Blue Bird]

The odds are with him.

 

[freeagent]

Week 10 numbers: 106 games

Games Ended by the 45 point rule.

Public Schools: 35 of 61 games, 57.4%
Public Schools vs Private Schools: 0 of 0 games, 0.0%
Private Schools: 16 of 45 games, 35.6%

All Games: 51 of 106 games, 48.1%

(includes 5 forfeits and 1 cancellations, forfeits are NOT counted as games ended by the 45 point rule; also games suspended for any reason -- injuries, weather, etc. -- but considered a final score by the teams involved -- are not counted as ended by the 45 point rule. Cancellations do not count as games played.)

That compares to 55.6% in Week 9, 2012 and 51.7% on all games in 2012.

Average score: 56.4 to 22.4

Season to date:

Public Schools: 351 of 604 games, 58.1%
Public Schools vs Private Schools: 79 of 157 games, 50.3%
(Public schools won 87 of the 154 games)
Private Schools: 243 of 511 games, 47.6%

All Games: 672 of 1271 games, 52.9%

Couple of notes:

1. 1272 Games is 29 games more than 2012's total of 1243, an increase of 2.3%

2. Public school games were down 7 from 2012, Public vs Private school games down 13, but Private school games were UP 49. If that trend continues, there may be MORE private school six-man games in Texas in 2015 or 2016 than public school games.

3. Mercy rule 52.9% for 2013 was the second highest (2008 was 53.7%) since 2004, but the range is pretty narrow (49.3% in 2007 was the lowest).

4. Next update after Week 15 UIL finals. Last year, we ended with 1353 games after playoffs and I expect to be pretty close to the 110 playoff number from last year (plus or minus 5 games). Update -- just did a quick count of playoff games; unless something crazy happens, it will be at 110 like last year, so we should end with 1382 games at the end of Week 15.

 

[freeagent]

PLAYOFF/SEASON FINAL - 110 playoff games

Games Ended by the 45 point rule.

Public Schools: 30 of 62 games, 48.4%
Private Schools: 21 of 48 games, 43.8%

All Games: 51 of 110 games, 46.4%

That compares to 44.4% in Playoffs, 2012 and 51.7% on all games in 2012.

Average score: 59.9 to 27.9

FINAL Season to date:

Public Schools: 381 of 666 games, 57.2%
Public Schools vs Private Schools: 79 of 157 games, 50.3%
(Public schools won 87 of the 154 games)
Private Schools: 264 of 559 games, 47.2%

All Games: 724 of 1382 games, 52.4%

Couple of notes:

1. 1382 Games is 29 games more than 2012's total of 1353, 243, an increase of 2.1%; there were the same number of playoff games (Weeks 11-15) than last year.

2. Mercy rule 52.4% for 2013 was the second highest (2008 was 52.7% with playoffs) since 2004, but the range is pretty narrow (49.3% in 2007 was the lowest).

 

[freeagent]

Only two unbeaten teams this year:

San Antonio Castle Hills First Baptist -- 14-0 (TAPPS D2 Champions), ranked #61 overall

Katy Faith West -- 10-0 (Independent; will play TAPPS district in 2014, ranked #106 overall

Well ... actually, a third. For some reason, we have Lubbock Home School playing one game (which was confirmed), a victory. Had 14 teams that were 0-fer.