Fajitapete's Division1 After Week 8

[fajitapete]

Gotta love district play, seems like most teams play with renewed intensity and school pride makes for great games. add in the district rivalries and it's a recipe for great games.

1 Water Valley 166.33
2 Borden County 147.15
3 Ira 137.66
4 Valley 134.27
5 Throckmorton 132.36
6 Petersburg 128.82
7 Sands 128.40
8 Garden City 124.84
9 Rankin 124.23
10 Rochelle 122.37
11 Aquilla 120.93
12 Aspermont 112.60
13 Zephyr 112.30
14 Abbott 107.59
15 Crowell 103.52
16 Fort Davis 97.15
17 Ropes 96.35
18 Lometa 92.89
19 Spur 91.23
20 Leveretts Chapel 91.18
21 Knox City 87.51
22 Follett 83.90
23 May 82.16
24 Klondike 81.99
25 Oakwood 81.68
26 Irving Universal 80.75
27 Walnut Springs 77.97
28 Bynum 77.24
29 Penelope 76.18
30 Meadow 76.15

 

[oldfat&bald]

Was my bragging on Klondike's concession stand what put them in your top 30?

 

[CowboyP]

Was my bragging on Klondike's concession stand what put them in your top 30?

Pete received a nice check for klondike's rise in the rankings.

 

[oldfat&bald]

Was my bragging on Klondike's concession stand what put them in your top 30?

Pete received a nice check for klondike's rise in the rankings.

Aquilla's at 11. Your check must have bounced Dr Tinkle.

 

[fajitapete]

Was my bragging on Klondike's concession stand what put them in your top 30?

Free frito pie will do it every time.

 

[dawgfan23]

Hey, I think Fort Davis needs to send Prime Rib....... LOL. Rankings are fun no doubt and I have no ties to either of these schools ( I live a long way from both) but, strength of schedules and who beat who by how much aside,........... #16 Fort Davis beat #8 Garden City. In my books that makes Fort Davis a better team. There are a few glitches in any ranking system that's understood, but I believe Fort Davis proved themselves. But Pete, your ranking system is fun to discuss. Plus it gets you all kinds of good food for free!

 

[oldfat&bald]

Was my bragging on Klondike's concession stand what put them in your top 30?

Free frito pie will do it every time.

I assume JAFO also gave you a bottle of wine with the pie. What type of wine does a connoisseur pair with a frito pie?

 

[CowboyP]

Was my bragging on Klondike's concession stand what put them in your top 30?

Pete received a nice check for klondike's rise in the rankings.

Aquilla's at 11. Your check must have bounced Dr Tinkle.

I've worked 8 hours in 2 weeks. The check was guaranteed to bounce.

 

[fajitapete]

Hey, I think Fort Davis needs to send Prime Rib....... LOL. Rankings are fun no doubt and I have no ties to either of these schools ( I live a long way from both) but, strength of schedules and who beat who by how much aside,........... #16 Fort Davis beat #8 Garden City. In my books that makes Fort Davis a better team. There are a few glitches in any ranking system that's understood, but I believe Fort Davis proved themselves. But Pete, your ranking system is fun to discuss. Plus it gets you all kinds of good food for free!

I'll take the prime rib

But really, if a ranking system could make a single correction and have all the numbers right then you wouldn't need any rankings after that. What a system does is to modify the power ratings trying to get closer to that magic number.

Try not to suffer from tunnel vision, It was a great game and FD did come out on top. But is a four point victory definitive proof of being the better team?

I'm been working on a measure of SOS and it gets recalculated every week. For this week the number for these two team were:

GC - 92.91
FD - 76.62
Average SOS DIV -1 62.21

What I haven't been able to do is to correlate the effect this info could have on the
prediction of a result in a match up. The correlation has to work across a wide range of conditions.

This week my systems predictions missed a few more:

Whitharral vs Amherst ---- Whitharral by 7
Balmorhea vs Buena Vista ---- Balmorhea by 49
Harrold vs Bryson ---- Harrold by 6
Chillicothe vs Paducah ---- Chillicothe by 46
Gordon vs Knox City ---- Gordon by 11
Karnack vs Fannindel ---- Karnack by 2
Panther Creek vs Paint Rock ---- Panther Creek by 30
Strawn vs Newcastle ---- Strawn by 4

 

[kbjoe1]

based on your rankings and knowledge who do you pick to come out of the regions?

 

[fajitapete]

I assume JAFO also gave you a bottle of wine with the pie. What type of wine does a connoisseur pair with a frito pie?

At a ball game - none
after wards - I prefer Negro Modelo or if unavailable a Shiner works. But if I was going to open a bottle, I would tap one of the Carmenere or Barbera that I laid up last year. Both turned out well and would pair with the frito pie , even if you were to pour ketchup on them, ( I seen it, just broke my heart)

 

[fajitapete]

based on your rankings and knowledge who do you pick to come out of the regions?

Don't be confusing rankings with knowledge, it's a measure of predicted performance based on past performance against loosely coupled entities.

Now, with the disclaimer in place, this is how the first round playoffs matches currently appear to shake out: (remember, this is as of today, two more weeks of district play)

DIV1 Region 1
W1 - Valley - 134.27
R2 - Chillicothe -67.52

W3 - Petersburg - 128.82
R4 - Meadoe - 76.15

W4 - Ropes - 96.35
R3 - Spur - 91.23

W2 - Crowell - 103.52
R1 - Follett - 83.9

DIV1 Region 2
W5 - Boarden County - 147.15
R6 - Aspermont 112.60 ----- corrected

W7 - Garden City - 124.84
R8 - Robert Lee - 60.05

W8 - Water Valley - 166.33
R7 - Rankin - 124.23

W6 - Ira - 137.66
R5 - Sands 128.40 ---- corrected

DIV1 Region 3
W9 - Throckmorten - 132.36
R10 - May - 82.16

W11 - Irving Universal - 80.75
R12 - Waxachache - 45.53

W12 - Walnut Springs - 77.97
R11 - Saint Jo - -10.61

W10 - Zepher - 112.3
R9 - Knox City - 87.51

DIV1 Region 4
W13 - Leverett's Chapel - 91.18
R14 - Abbott - 107.59

W15 - Rochelle - 122.37
R16 - BYE

W16 - BYE
R15 - Lometa - 92.89

W14 - Aquilla - 120.93
R13- Oakwood - 81.68

 

[dawgfan23]

Pete first of all let me say I really look forward to yours, Hornkeepers and Grangers polls every week. They give us some interesting perspectives and topics to talk about. And I agree that a lot of the games are predicted correctly by the systems. But not all. So no system is perfect.

RE: #16 FT. Davis over #8 GC
Pete, I believe the better team is the one that wins on the field of play. I guess that makes me a purist. Just because the BCS computer, ex coaches, and polling people say that the two teams that are selected to play in the College National Championship game are the best doesn't mean it's so. I believe it's not about who technically should be best, but who was the best on the field any given night. A playoff system allows the best team to be the champion. By using the computer ranking systems, technically the best team may not be the champion, so does that make the true champion not the best team? In the world of acceptance, I believe we do accept that the best team is the one that prevails. There will always be those who say "they may be champs but we were better" but it wasn't proven on the field of play, therefore in my humble opinion the correct champion was determined. I also know that the polling systems use the stats from the beginning of the season to present times. But a lot can change in a matter of weeks and the information used to rank the teams may lag behind what is actually occurring on the field now.

Having said all of that, I do appreciate the time and effort that goes into the polls and will continue to be a faithful follower of the polls. I do feel that in many cases the polls are close and like many, I won't agree with everything. But that's part of what keeps us here and involved.

P.S. If I send Prime Rib with the sides and some home made apple pie, do you think it might help my teams rankings? LOL

 

[fajitapete]

. . . I believe the better team is the one that wins on the field of play.

Absolutely right. Friday night, Fort Davis was the better team. The rankings are a measure and a prediction of how a team should perform, but human spirit is hard to measure ( look at Tech beating OU).

In the system Ft Davis was rewarded with an additional points and GC loses some.

Hopefully next week the numbers are closer to where they need to be I am beginning to believe that in any given week they are 10% of the games that are upsets based on power ratings.

 

[fajitapete]

. . . By using the computer ranking systems, technically the best team may not be the champion, so does that make the true champion not the best team? . . .

Great insight, What I am thinking of doing for the playoffs is to flatten the power ratings by normalizing the ratings between 0 and 100, then modifying the rewards for each round higher than the week before. maybe 125% for each week in the brackets, so if you would have gotten a 5 point boost in regular season you would get
6.25 in round 1, 7.8 in round 2, 9.77 in round 3, 12.21 in round 4, and 15.25 in the final round.

 

[Toledo Mudhen]

W5 - Boarden County - 147.15
R6 - Sands - 128.4


I don't know how this will effect the whole thing, but these are both in District 5. It looks like they will be 1 & 2 in the district.

 

[fajitapete]

W5 - Boarden County - 147.15
R6 - Sands - 128.4


I don't know how this will effect the whole thing, but these are both in District 5. It looks like they will be 1 & 2 in the district.

it means I fat fingered an entry, I guess I'll go back, find the error fix it and edit the post, thanks for the check

 

[JAFO]

Wheres odonnell ? Think we all are going down to odonnell this week. Klondike has better defense and more kids that lay out bruising tackles. The only way odonnell will win is by running. If they pass, they will get hurt, physically. I see a very violent game here. Klondike by 13. It will be a cool game too.