2019 UIL Playoff Scenarios

[granger]

Here's what I put together this afternoon... I will complete D2 asap

DIVISION 1

District 1
McLean (2-0) is the district champion, with only a home game with Miami (0-2) remaining. White Deer and Valley (both 1-1) are playing for the second spot. Even if Miami pulled off the upset, McLean holds a win over the other two.

District 2
Hart (1-3) and Lorenzo (0-3) are eliminated. Petersburg (3-0) looks to be in the driver’s seat, as they travel to Nazareth (2-1) as a 30-point favorite. Happy (2-1) is the likely runner-up as a 45-point favorite at home against Lorenzo.

District 3
Knox City (4-0) has clinched the district title and is enjoying a week off to get ready for the playoffs. Crowell (2-1) is the runner-up, as they head to Chillicothe (0-3). A loss would place them in to a tie with the Northside-Paducah winner and they hold a win over both.

District 4
Ira (3-0) looks to be heading towards another district title with Spur as the runner-up. If I am looking at this correctly, even a Spur loss to Rotan and Spur has the tie-breaker over both Aspermont and Hermleigh (should they upset Ira).

District 5
Ropes (3-0) is the district champion and heads to Wellman-Union for what may be the final time. https://www.kcbd.com/video/2019/10/29/meadow-ropes-ready-add-final-line-six-man-football-rivalry/ Morton (3-1) is the district runner-up.

District 6
Borden County (3-0) is the district champion and heads to Grady (1-2) this weekend. Klondike (2-1) is a 45-point favorite over O’Donnell (2-1), but with a playoff berth on the line, you never know what will happen.

District 7
Balmorhea (2-0) is at Rankin (2-0). Both have a spot in the playoffs, but the Bears are 42-point favorites to claim the district title.

District 8
The Battle of the Cities. I am guessing they have a better name for this. Sterling City (9-0, 3-0) is a 45-point favorite over Garden City (7-2, 3-0).

District 9
This district was voted most likely to be a complete mess when you wake up on Saturday. Perrin-Whitt (3-0) is leading the district race, but a 7-point underdog on the road at Saint Jo (2-1). Newcastle (3-1) is in the clubhouse with a 79-70 win over Saint Jo last week. They suffered a 40-36 loss to P-W in week 7. In a simple world, P-W wins on the road and secures the title, with Newcastle as runner-up. If Saint Jo wins, I am guessing we get into one of those fun point differential exercises. Here’s where we stand: Newcastle +5, P-W, +4, SJ -9. A Saint Jo win by 7 points (the actual spread) makes them -2 and PW -3. Also, when you work this out, Newcastle has clinched a playoff spot.

District 10
Blum (4-0) is the district champion. The rest could be interesting. Aquilla (2-1) is a 20-point favorite over Abbott (1-2) and Covington (1-2) is 45-point favorite at Gholson (0-3) (which by the way is hosting six games this weekend, but that’s another story). We all know the Rabbits v. the River Rats can go either way, but the easy route of for Aquilla to win out. A three-way tie probably leaves Abbott out since they have the 20+ point losses to the others and I assume it is capped. Aquilla would have to lose by the max to give Covington a chance. Unless of course it is just a coin flip.

District 11
Avalon (2-0) and Milford (2-0) are both in. If I’d have told you Milford would be a 10-point underdog in this game before the season started you probably would think I was crazy.

District 12
This district is just weird. They are done. Finished last week. Union Hill (9-1, 3-0) is the champion and Leverett’s Chapel (7-1, 2-1) is the runner-up.

District 13
Eden (3-0) leads the district and hosts Robert Lee (2-1). Veribest (3-1) is done. Eden is a 45-point favorite and a win gives them the title with Veribest as runner-up. A Robert Lee win and they are likely in since Veribest lost by 52 to Eden and only beat RL by 4.

District 14
May (2-0) is a heavy favorite at Lingleville (1-1). Gorman (1-1) is a heavy favorite over Santa Anna (0-2). This would put May as the district champion and Gorman as runner-up. This could get tricky if Lingleville stepped in there, but highly unlikely. Lingleville still could actually win the district with a win and a Gorman loss. There’s all sorts of crazy options, but let’s not overthink this.

District 15
Jonesboro (2-0) is hosting Evant (1-1), while Lometa (0-2) is at Zephyr (1-1). Jonesboro is favored by 45 with Zephyr favored by 29. This could go a couple of ways, but basic path begins with Jonesboro and Zephyr going 1-2. Of course, a Lometa win and Jonesboro win send Lometa as runner-up. An Evant win would really throw a wrench into everything. Should Evant and Lometa win, Evant would be district champ and Jonesboro runner-up. An Evant-Zephyr combo throws it into a three-way tie.

District 16
Nueces Canyon (2-0) heads to Prairie Lea (0-2) this weekend with the district title already sewn up. The big game will be Medina (1-1) at Leakey (1-1), although Leakey is favored by 45 at hime.

 

[wrenchman540]

could you explain the points differential exercise

 

[granger]

If three teams tie, and there’s no clear winner between them (i.e., team A has beaten team B, team B has beaten team C and team C has beaten team A) them most districts no longer use a coin flip. They use the score differential between the games the teams played. They also usually cap this at 16 or 18 points to avoid running up the score. If team A beats team B by 4 but loses to team C by 14, team A is -10

 

[granger]

Now for D2...

DIVISION 2

District 1
Groom (3-0) is the district champion and faces Higgins (0-3) this weekend. Lefors (3-1) is the runner-up and open.

District 2
Motley County (2-0) sits in the driver’s seat. They travel to Silverton (1-1) and are favored by 45 points. Kress (1-1) hosts Patton Springs (0-2).If Kress were to lose, things would get wonky. Otherwise, it appears MC will be the district champion with Kress as runner-up.

District 3
Witharral (4-0) has the week off and has clinched the district title. Anton (2-1) hosts Cotton Center (0-3) and Lazbuddie (1-2) travels to Amherst (1-2). CC is 0-9 on the season so the likely scenario here is Anton to the playoffs.

District 4
In a weirdly small three-team district, Loop (2-0) has secured the district title. The matchup between Southland (1-1) at Wilson (1-1) will be for the second playoff spot. Wilson is favored by a mere 8 points at home.

District 5
Again with the weird scheduling. Grandfalls-Royalty (3-0) and Sanderson (2-1) are open, but have both clinched playoffs spots.

District 6
Blackwell (2-0) heads to Loraine (2-0) to determine the district title. Blackwell is a heavy favorite to take the title. Yes, Leman, we all care about the Blackwell score.

District 7
Jayton (3-0) is open and the district champ. Rule (1-1) travels to Lueders-Avoca (1-1) where the Raiders are favored by 39 in a battle for the second playoff berth.

District 8
Yes, another three-team district! Woodson (1-0) travels to Throckmorton (1-0) to determine the playoff order. Woodson is favored by 20.

District 9
Did someone say three-team district? Why yes, another one. Fannindel (1-0) heads to Forestburg (1-0) with the district title on the line. Fannindel is an overwhelming 38-point favorite.

District 10
Strawn (2-0) at Gordon (2-0). What more needs to be said? Strawn is a 21-point favorite, but don’t stop that from being 200-point type taped up in the Gordon fieldhouse. I am guessing it will be closer.

District 11
Walnut Springs (2-0) heads to Cranfills Gap (2-0) to determine the district champ. Cranfills Gap is favored by 45. When’s the last time you could say that? If I am correct, The Gap has not defeated Walnut Springs since 1997.

District 12
Bynum (2-0) heads to Mt. Calm (1-1) and Kopperl (0-2) heads to Morgan (1-1). This one has been tight all around. Mt. Calm lost to Morgan by 5. Morgan lost to Bynum by 5. Bynum is favored by 11. I believe Kopperl may forfeit. This could be another point differential is Mt. Calm rallies the troops.

District 13
Trinidad (2-0) at Oakwood (2-0) to determine winner and runner-up for the district race. Oakwood is favored by a mere 5 points at home, so this should be a good one.

District 14
Calvert (2-0) hosts McDade (1-1) while Buckholts (1-1) heads to Oglesby (0-2). Calvert and Buckholts are prohibitive favorites to make this a 1-2.

District 15
Sidney (2-1) heads to Blanket (3-0) and Brookesmith (2-1) travels to Rising Star (1-2). Blanket and Brookesmith are 45-point favorites. Should Sidney pull this off, then let’s regroup on Friday night and see where we are. Brookesmith would have the inside track on point differential with a blowout win over Sidney and a 10-point loss to Blanket. But again, let’s talk Friday night.

District 16
Richland Springs used an ineligible player and was told they have to forfeit their entire district schedule and will not make the playoffs. OK, I just wanted to see if you were actually still reading. Richland Springs heads to Rochelle with both teams already having qualified for the playoffs. The winner here gets the district title. The Coyotes are favored by 45.

 

[phimutau]

I have insider info on the District 9 rules to help clarify the situation.

If Saint Jo wins and forces a 3-way tie, the point system Granger referenced will be used to determine who gets #1 seed. There is a 24 point cap. The runner up will be determined by head to head.

The three scenarios that could happen are;

Saint Jo wins by 15 points or more (puts St Jo at +6 or more above Newcastle's +5)
1. Saint Jo
2. Perrin-Whitt

Saint Jo wins by 1 to 14 points (puts St Jo at +5 or below, giving Newcastle head to head or greater points)
1. Newcastle
2. Saint Jo

Saint Jo loses
1. Perrin-Whitt
2. Newcastle

 

[granger]

Also, D1D15 is a little off. Just ignore anything I said about Lometa. It gets complicated. Points.

 

[51eleven]

So RS was declared ineligible but Sheffield got Abbott to reverse the decision?

 

[Shad Kline]

I have insider info on the District 9 rules to help clarify the situation.

If Saint Jo wins and forces a 3-way tie, the point system Granger referenced will be used to determine who gets #1 seed. There is a 24 point cap. The runner up will be determined by head to head.

The three scenarios that could happen are;

Saint Jo wins by 15 points or more (puts St Jo at +6 or more above Newcastle's +5)
1. Saint Jo
2. Perrin-Whitt

Saint Jo wins by 1 to 14 points (puts St Jo at +5 or below, giving Newcastle head to head or greater points)
1. Newcastle
2. Saint Jo

Saint Jo loses
1. Perrin-Whitt
2. Newcastle

So with this scenario, it creates a situation where PW has to determine at some point in the game, if they can’t definitely win, they need to make sure to lose by more than 15. I hate when there are situations like this because it puts the PW coach in a precarious situation where he has to decide whether to go to the playoffs, or maintain the integrity of the game by playing all out. Do you risk missing the playoffs by giving it your all and possibly coming up a few points short? Or do you stand aside and let SJ into the end zone to get that #2 spot in the playoffs? Best case scenario for the PW coach is to give it your all and the game not be that close, with either team winning so he doesn’t have to make that decision.

 

[granger]

I agree. This is completely unhealthy. I did not realize a district would determine only the top team by that method. The incentive should be for you to do as well as you can at all times.

 

[Jones26]

I agree. This is completely unhealthy. I did not realize a district would determine only the top team by that method. The incentive should be for you to do as well as you can at all times.

I think that first scenario should be St. Jo at 1 and Newcastle at 2

 

[Tough Enough]

Sorry Newcastle Saint Jo is 45 pts better than Perrin. Plus Perrin has the injury bug and heard one of there better players has been suspended

 

[Tough Enough]

But wouldn’t that put Pw point total to a negative number and then Newcastle would be runner up

 

[Superjrj]

But wouldn’t that put Pw point total to a negative number and then Newcastle would be runner up

District tie breaker says points determine 1st place only and head to head determines runner up according to pimatau so saint jo wins by 15 they’re 1st on points and Perrin best Newcastle so Perrin goes Newcastle stays home

 

[Tough Enough]

Sorry didn’t read entire post.

 

[3rdandaninch]

Why doesn't 1A just do 4 teams like 2-6A?

 

[Superjrj]

From what I understand saint Jo is healthy. Which players from Perrin are the injuries to and the suspension to

 

[granger]

because some districts only have 3 teams...

 

[GoBucks]

because some districts only have 3 teams...

In your crystal ball Granger - do you think there will be more 4-5 team districts when we get the realignment?

 

[granger]

There will be 2 divisions, each with 16 districts. Each district will have a minimum of 4 teams. That places 128 teams in there. Now if we assume about 150 teams, then 22 teams need to be placed.

The unfortunate situation is the fact that the UIL does not consider that a team may elect to be in a district but then not have enough students to play. It seems that these always end up as 4-team districts to begin with that shrivel to 3-teamers. I can guarantee this will happen. It always does. Just like death, taxes and coaches getting fat in season....

 

[Deleted member 21909]

Why doesn't 1A just do 4 teams like 2-6A?

They sort of do because the districts are not segregated between DI and DII in the 11-man classifications. I think it's easier to explain in an example rather than trying to describe it. To do this, I am going to use 1A District 14 DI and 1A District 16 DII:

District 14 D1:
May
Gorman
Santa Anna
Lingeville

District 16 D11:
Richland Springs
Rochelle
Cherokee
Panther Creek
Lohn

In this scenario, two DII teams make the playoffs and two DI teams make the playoffs. In 11-man, they do not separate the districts, so let's just say this is one district with these 9 teams:

District:
May (90)
Gorman (83)
Lingeville (69)
Santa Anna (64)
Panther Creek (54)
Richland Springs (46)
Cherokee (42)
Rochelle (40)
Lohn (28)

*Source for Enrollment of Each School: https://www.uiltexas.org/files/alignmen ... 018-20.pdf

Four of those teams make the playoffs with the two with the biggest student body going into the DI and the smaller two going into DII. Just to illustrate:

Lingeville would be DI if they made the playoffs unless both May and Gorman made the playoffs during the same year. If both May and Gorman made the playoffs during the same year, Lingeville would be in DII.

Cherokee would be in DII if they made the playoffs unless both Lohn and Rochelle (McCulloch County Pride) made the playoffs during the same year. If both Lohn and Rochelle made the playoffs during the same year, Cherokee would be in DI.

Therefore, it is pretty darn close to the same thing minus the districts being segregated in sixman versus not segregated in 11-man.