I have updated the probabilities, based on the updated rantings and draws, for the teams remaining in the UIL and TAPPS playoffs. If you don't know what I am talking about... read my previous articles on this starting with this one, http://www.sixmanguru.com/crowell-favor ... obability/
TAPPS in down to its Final Four this weekend. After playing each of these 100,000 times, here's what I see:
TEAM,SEMIS,FINAL,CHAMPION
Katy Faith West,76684,10285,13031
Boerne Geneva,23316,20656,56028
Pasadena First Baptist,46083,36105,17812
Watauga Harvest,53917,32954,13129
TEAM,SEMIS,FINAL,CHAMPION
Denton Calvary,80534,9609,9857
Waco Live Oak,19466,24155,56379
Austin Veritas,54307,31416,14277
SA Castle Hills,45693,34820,19487
TEAM,SEMIS,FINAL,CHAMPION
Fort Worth Covenant Classical,70213,14262,15525
Longview Trinity,29787,23853,46360
Fredericksburg Heritage,45602,32491,21907
Granbury North Central Texas Academy,54398,29394,16208
Boerne Geneva, Waco Live Oak and Longview Trinity are still the favorites. The biggest surprises so far seem to be in the D1 bracket where Katy Faith West and Pasadena First Baptist have jumped from having about a 1% chance all the way over 10%.
On the UIL side of things, we are entering the regional finals.
TEAM,QUARTERS,SEMIS,FINAL,CHAMPION
Happy,46151,41243,4919,7687
Valley,53849,37316,3658,5177
Ira,59541,10361,7961,22137
Crowell,40459,11080,9281,39180
Gordon,72006,17687,8440,1867
May,27994,34383,27771,9852
Blum,39171,26796,23966,10067
Abbott,60829,21134,14004,4033
.
TEAM,QUARTERS,SEMIS,FINAL,CHAMPION
Follett,55880,15569,21637,6914
Groom,44120,16123,27992,11765
Sands,42880,37468,16048,3604
Loraine,57120,30840,10078,1962
Guthrie,64682,17435,5249,12634
Throckmorton,35318,24193,7642,32847
Richland Springs,55894,27352,5052,11702
Calvert,44106,31020,6302,18572
Really nothing much has changed here. Loraine originally had about a 0.01% chance, which has jumped to almost 2%, but that is due to being in the absolutely weakest part of the draw. Crowell and Throckmorton still lead the way.
TAPPS in down to its Final Four this weekend. After playing each of these 100,000 times, here's what I see:
TEAM,SEMIS,FINAL,CHAMPION
Katy Faith West,76684,10285,13031
Boerne Geneva,23316,20656,56028
Pasadena First Baptist,46083,36105,17812
Watauga Harvest,53917,32954,13129
TEAM,SEMIS,FINAL,CHAMPION
Denton Calvary,80534,9609,9857
Waco Live Oak,19466,24155,56379
Austin Veritas,54307,31416,14277
SA Castle Hills,45693,34820,19487
TEAM,SEMIS,FINAL,CHAMPION
Fort Worth Covenant Classical,70213,14262,15525
Longview Trinity,29787,23853,46360
Fredericksburg Heritage,45602,32491,21907
Granbury North Central Texas Academy,54398,29394,16208
Boerne Geneva, Waco Live Oak and Longview Trinity are still the favorites. The biggest surprises so far seem to be in the D1 bracket where Katy Faith West and Pasadena First Baptist have jumped from having about a 1% chance all the way over 10%.
On the UIL side of things, we are entering the regional finals.
TEAM,QUARTERS,SEMIS,FINAL,CHAMPION
Happy,46151,41243,4919,7687
Valley,53849,37316,3658,5177
Ira,59541,10361,7961,22137
Crowell,40459,11080,9281,39180
Gordon,72006,17687,8440,1867
May,27994,34383,27771,9852
Blum,39171,26796,23966,10067
Abbott,60829,21134,14004,4033
.
TEAM,QUARTERS,SEMIS,FINAL,CHAMPION
Follett,55880,15569,21637,6914
Groom,44120,16123,27992,11765
Sands,42880,37468,16048,3604
Loraine,57120,30840,10078,1962
Guthrie,64682,17435,5249,12634
Throckmorton,35318,24193,7642,32847
Richland Springs,55894,27352,5052,11702
Calvert,44106,31020,6302,18572
Really nothing much has changed here. Loraine originally had about a 0.01% chance, which has jumped to almost 2%, but that is due to being in the absolutely weakest part of the draw. Crowell and Throckmorton still lead the way.
