The Toy Needs an Adjustment

midcities 6-man fan

Active member
The Toys prediction algorithms need an adjustment, I think. Since it went 1- 4 for the State title games.
In TAPPS Division 2 it picked Marble Falls Faith over Waco Live Oak by 2, Live Oak won. Division 1 the toy choose Houston Emery-Weiner, the only one it got correct. Division 3 the pick was Bracken Christian, by 8 over Covenant Classical. Covenant won by 4.
In the UIL title games, May was the favorite by 32 over Westbrook. Westbrook prevailed in Division 1. Then the biggest miss Strawn under dogged by 15 to Motley County. Strawn 45’ed MC in third quarter..
So, looks like the toy could use some tweaking.
 

pistol

Active member
a 2 point and 8 point favorite in 6man is basically just a pickem so while the toy was "wrong" it was just a toss up

Also the toy is reactionary.. Westbrook was a big dog probably due to 4 losses throughout the season (one to WV who May beat) while injuries played a part in some of those of losses, the rankings don't take any of that into account.

We trust in MIKE
 

TebowTime15

Active member
I wonder if Mike can see Granger's old algorithms in regards to the Toy? If so, I would go back to about early to mid 2000 because, in my opinion, it used to be a lot more accurate than it is now. While it will never be able to take into account injuries in the case of Westbrook, I think, at the very least, Strawn should have been favored over Motley County by atleast a point.
 

Texlonghorn75

Well-known member
It appears that the initial numbers (values)assigned to the D2 teams in the west as a whole were overvalued. Mike mentioned on another thread that certain average or weak west teams were more competitive value wise than those in the east as the season progressed and the rankings look somewhat off. Of course Motley was pegged as the top team and had a higher number(value) from the get go even though Strawn appeared to be at least as competitive after their 2020 semi final game with RS.
 

Mike

Administrator
Of course Motley was pegged as the top team and had a higher number(value) from the get go even though Strawn appeared to be at least as competitive after their 2020 semi final game with RS.

I wish it were that simple. However, I also conducted tests in this thread where, in test 4, I started Motley County in last place. They still ended up being higher than Strawn at the time I did the tests. The fact is, the computer does all the work. My pre-season rankings, which were actually just last season's final rankings, had very little to do with it.

I do have Granger's algorithm, but only as it last existed. I can't see how it has changed through the years. Also, right now it's written in a programming language that I can't read. That said, it is absolutely a top priority for me to learn to read the code that builds the rankings this off-season and go from there.
 

midcities 6-man fan

Active member
I have been meaning to ask this about the rankings since the final rankings were released. How did Marble Falls and Bracken who dropped below Live Oak and Covenant as they should have following the TAPPS State Championships? Then jump back over them in week 17, even though the TAPPS season was complete. I thought head to head was a major factor. Which it appears to have been in both UIL divisions as both State Champions jumped to number one. Yet both Live Oak dropped to number two in the final poll despite being the state champions and nobody playing.
In fact, I thought the only team of the TAPPS schools that the UIL games might affect week 17 was Covenant. Since they played Strawn and Strawn was still playing, When Strawn won and their power ranking went up, I would think that would have also affected Covenant. I assume it did since their power ranking went up but so did Brackens. Looking at the schedules, Covenant appears to have played the much tougher schedule, won state, and beat Bracken head to head. So, I don't see how Bracken jumped them in the final poll. Plus Covenant's two losses came to The UIL DII champion by 17and the UIL DI Champion lost to them by 14. Then a 7 point loss to RS who made it to the state semi-finals.
 

midcities 6-man fan

Active member
I have been meaning to ask this about the rankings since the final rankings were released. How did Marble Falls and Bracken who dropped below Live Oak and Covenant as they should have following the TAPPS State Championships? Then jump back over them in week 17, even though the TAPPS season was complete. I thought head to head was a major factor. Which it appears to have been in both UIL divisions as both State Champions jumped to number one. Yet both Live Oak dropped to number two in the final poll despite being the state champions and nobody playing.
In fact, I thought the only team of the TAPPS schools that the UIL games might affect week 17 was Covenant. Since they played Strawn and Strawn was still playing, When Strawn won and their power ranking went up, I would think that would have also affected Covenant. I assume it did since their power ranking went up but so did Brackens. Looking at the schedules, Covenant appears to have played the much tougher schedule, won state, and beat Bracken head to head. So, I don't see how Bracken jumped them in the final poll. Plus Covenant's two losses came to The UIL DII champion by 17and the UIL DI Champion lost to them by 14. Then a 7 point loss to RS who made it to the state semi-finals.
Westbrook lost to Strawn, not to Covenant way that came out was unclear. I was just trying to point out that they played Strawn as close as Westbrook did.
 

Texlonghorn75

Well-known member
Glad someone else sees the inconsistencies in the Toy ranking system. After watching the D2 State championship game it was apparent that Richland Springs was a better team than Motley County as well. Not a knock on Motley County just based what they showed in their game against Strawn. Motley's competition in the West other than Westbrook was not tough enough to allow them to be rated number one throughout the season in my opinion. Trot out all the numbers that the Toy uses but it never looked quite right.
 

Texas Rebel

Active member
I wish it were that simple. However, I also conducted tests in this thread where, in test 4, I started Motley County in last place. They still ended up being higher than Strawn at the time I did the tests. The fact is, the computer does all the work. My pre-season rankings, which were actually just last season's final rankings, had very little to do with it.

I do have Granger's algorithm, but only as it last existed. I can't see how it has changed through the years. Also, right now it's written in a programming language that I can't read. That said, it is absolutely a top priority for me to learn to read the code that builds the rankings this off-season and go from there.

What language ?
 

Mike

Administrator
What language ?
Python...

On this, I've mostly got it figured out. I haven't started converting it yet but that'll probably happen soon. When it does I'll start playing with different scenarios and see if any changes make sense.

It's important to note that even if I do make changes, that would have made this season's rankings more accurate, that doesn't mean next season's will be accurate. Every season will be different, we won't know how accurate it is until the dust settles, and these rankings have been pretty good throughout the years as-is.
 

ragid0

Active member
It seems to be pretty good, and I know no one cares about TAIAO, but somehow East Texas Homeschool is still ahead of Northside Sports even though NS beat them in the semifinals.
 

51eleven

Well-known member
I don't think the Toy needs that much modification or adjustment. I'm no self-proclaimed math nerd like the Guru who developed the program as a masters thesis at UT if I remember right. As I've noted to him years ago I got lost at logarithms and it almost cost me graduating from UTA but for a waiver.
Westbrook and Strawn were monkey wrenches regarding the public schools this year. The private/Church schools are always still a bit un predictable/volatile, hard to pin down. WB's injuries and in turn losses threw a kink into the program in my non math imho. Nobody knew about the Rigdon's coming to Strawn before the season, the development of GR was unanticipated by fans, spectators or the Toy. Maybe even Coach Lee.
 
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