So I also ran a simulation of the 2019 UIL D2 Bracket

[granger]

Just like on Monday when I ran the simulation on the Division 1 bracket, I ran one on the Division 2 bracket. The results had a few similarities but also a few differences.

Again the West is loaded, with Grandfalls-Royalty (35405), Jayton (14854), Motley County (5057) and Blackwell (6435), but the East has a large favorite as well in Richland Springs (16568).

The reality is that the potential second round game between Jayton and Grandfalls looks to be the game that will decide the West. Those two team dominate over 65% of the scenarios of who gets to the finals from the West.

On the flip side are the Coyotes of Richland Springs. They get to the finals over 41.6% of the time. Other notables from the East include Gordon (13183 2nds and 4759 championships), Gordon (7502 and 2548) and Calvert (5830 and 2315). That’s a formidable quartet of past champions. Oakwood is too far behind (4609 and 1573).

All in all, I expect a fun and exciting month of football and cannot wait for AT&T

 

[Red_Devil_DDS]

I’m desperately hoping Jayton and Grandfalls don’t play in Garden City. I’m usually not superstitious, but I’ve never seen one of “my teams” win there maybe ever.

 

[granger]

I have updated the sim for how it stands now...

 

[51eleven]

I’m desperately hoping Jayton and Grandfalls don’t play in Garden City. I’m usually not superstitious, but I’ve never seen one of “my teams” win there maybe ever.

Well for all the torture you have submitted on patients in the past I hope they play there. Welcome back, you've been missed. OBK, where is that picture of the Huge dental drill?

Best of luck to the Devil's themselves. Drill on.

 

[51eleven]

Oops just looked at the brackets. This matchup in GC is happening.

 

[Johnny South]

I know that you only get out of something what you put into it, but these numbers don't tell the whole story. Lueders Avoca, their common opponent, scored 8 on Jayton, but scored 20 on Grandfalls. Jayton is a 40 point underdog in the upcoming game.
Jayton has more of a playoff history than Grandfalls but is showing to have less than half the chance that Grandfalls has.
A lot of this may get cleared up this week as the Jaybirds may very well take out the favored cowboys.

Another little glitch in the system looks to be the #9 overall ranked team, Bastrop Tribe. The #1 team Rankin beat them by only 10 points, yet are ranked 60 points better. I know that scrimmages aren't counted, but you can tell a bunch from one. Even with a couple of RS's best players out, the Coyotes beat Bastrop in scrimmage #2. Just what I see here.

 

[Potato Frank]

I know that you only get out of something what you put into it, but these numbers don't tell the whole story. Lueders Avoca, their common opponent, scored 8 on Jayton, but scored 20 on Grandfalls. Jayton is a 40 point underdog in the upcoming game.
Jayton has more of a playoff history than Grandfalls but is showing to have less than half the chance that Grandfalls has.
A lot of this may get cleared up this week as the Jaybirds may very well take out the favored cowboys.

Another little glitch in the system looks to be the #9 overall ranked team, Bastrop Tribe. The #1 team Rankin beat them by only 10 points, yet are ranked 60 points better. I know that scrimmages aren't counted, but you can tell a bunch from one. Even with a couple of RS's best players out, the Coyotes beat Bastrop in scrimmage #2. Just what I see here.

Ok but it's also a computer and doesn't really count for anything. We all know it's what happens on the field that matters. This is just for fun, don't take it so seriously. Great job on this stuff Granger

 

[Johnny South]

This is just for fun, don't take it so seriously. Great job on this stuff Granger

Absolutely. If it wasn't fun, nobody would mess with it. But like any game, play to win, try to improve, be as good a sport as you can, accept your defeat, and celebrate your victories. Sixman is habit-forming isn't it?

 

[granger]

I will disagree on the scrimmages point. Most of the time they mean 0% especially by week 13.

I tend to agree on some of the other points. The problem is the system is too big. What I mean by that is the disparity of teams, from top to bottom. As the season moves along, the system explodes. In a normal sport, this would scale better. The problem with six-man is the 45-point rule which really masks the reality of how much a team is better than another. Some games reach that threshold in a quarter, some towards the end of the fourth. Some coaches keep it close and try not to go over. Some schools lose a player or two towards the end and all of a sudden they are getting 45'd by teams they would normally play close. I have always thought there needs to be scaling, but how to implement was always tough.

As for Jayton v. Grandfalls historically, I am not sure that matters 1%. And you can carve that however you want. I could argue that G-R has more playoff history in the last decade than Jayton... that would be more relevant.