I am going to start posting the simulations I am running. Here's the low down. I am simulating the remaining tournaments 100,000 times and will post the results. I will start with the UIL Division 1 bracket and explain the results.
What the numbers mean:
The first four are the number of times they lost in that round. The final number is the total number of championships they win
So, for Happy (the favorite right now). The lose 22.7% of the time in this next round, 32.8% in the regional final, 16.9% in the semifinal, 7.6% in the final and win the whole thing 19.9% of the time.
On thing to notice is the tough draw Borden County has right now. Not only is their game with Valley very tight, they then have to 'probably' play Happy next. There is about a 75% chance they lose in the next two rounds.
If BC wins the next two rounds, their odds greatly improve to 37%, which is higher than the 1 in 4 expected semifinalist odds. That is not to be confused with the 9.38% chance they have now.
Happy,22737,32814,16917,7627,19905
Meadow,77263,14101,4760,1751,2125
Borden County,49097,25697,11121,4708,9377
Valley,50903,27388,10202,4294,7213
Garden City,53616,27454,12127,2939,3864
Hermleigh,46384,28669,14566,4188,6193
Crowell,32947,26529,20367,6703,13454
Sterling City,67053,17348,9940,2443,3216
Newcastle,55954,24985,11441,5500,2120
Zephyr,44046,28004,14912,8831,4207
Rochelle,39970,26050,16414,11274,6292
Gordon,60030,20961,11120,5606,2283
Abbott,22237,34218,17984,15088,10473
Savoy,77763,14085,4756,2561,835
Chester,60630,22465,8804,5650,2451
Milford,39370,29232,14569,10837,5992
What the numbers mean:
The first four are the number of times they lost in that round. The final number is the total number of championships they win
So, for Happy (the favorite right now). The lose 22.7% of the time in this next round, 32.8% in the regional final, 16.9% in the semifinal, 7.6% in the final and win the whole thing 19.9% of the time.
On thing to notice is the tough draw Borden County has right now. Not only is their game with Valley very tight, they then have to 'probably' play Happy next. There is about a 75% chance they lose in the next two rounds.
If BC wins the next two rounds, their odds greatly improve to 37%, which is higher than the 1 in 4 expected semifinalist odds. That is not to be confused with the 9.38% chance they have now.
Happy,22737,32814,16917,7627,19905
Meadow,77263,14101,4760,1751,2125
Borden County,49097,25697,11121,4708,9377
Valley,50903,27388,10202,4294,7213
Garden City,53616,27454,12127,2939,3864
Hermleigh,46384,28669,14566,4188,6193
Crowell,32947,26529,20367,6703,13454
Sterling City,67053,17348,9940,2443,3216
Newcastle,55954,24985,11441,5500,2120
Zephyr,44046,28004,14912,8831,4207
Rochelle,39970,26050,16414,11274,6292
Gordon,60030,20961,11120,5606,2283
Abbott,22237,34218,17984,15088,10473
Savoy,77763,14085,4756,2561,835
Chester,60630,22465,8804,5650,2451
Milford,39370,29232,14569,10837,5992
