This year seems to be a little more ‘up in the air’ than previous seasons. No single team has distanced themselves as an overwhelming favorite. With that in mind, I decided to simulate the entire Division 1 draw 100,000 times.
In my mind, I had the impression that the balance of power resided in the West. I was not prepared for what transpired when I ran the simulation. The West is the prohibitive favorite to win the Division 1 title. In 100,000 simulations, the West combined to win the title a whopping 80,332 times (80.3%).
McLean is a slight favorite to win the title. They won 16,777 or approximately 16.8% of the time. Close behind were Rankin (12,616), Garden City (11,264), May (9108) and Sterling City (9106). Ira was not far behind at (8878), with Balmorhea (6613) and Borden County (6118) still also just above 6%.
The most interesting fact was how much of a favorite May is in the East. The Tigers won 9108 simulated titles, along with 26,408 finalist finishes, showing them in the finals a solid 35.5% of the time. The closest team in the East would be Avalon with 2174 titles and 10235 second place finishes.
The biggest longshot to win the title is Morton (153). This is because they have a murderer’s row they would have to get past in the West before they would even get a shot at the title.
How to understand the chart:
The numbers represent the number of times a team lost in the particular round, except for the final column (Championship). If you add across a row, it should total 100,000.
In my mind, I had the impression that the balance of power resided in the West. I was not prepared for what transpired when I ran the simulation. The West is the prohibitive favorite to win the Division 1 title. In 100,000 simulations, the West combined to win the title a whopping 80,332 times (80.3%).
McLean is a slight favorite to win the title. They won 16,777 or approximately 16.8% of the time. Close behind were Rankin (12,616), Garden City (11,264), May (9108) and Sterling City (9106). Ira was not far behind at (8878), with Balmorhea (6613) and Borden County (6118) still also just above 6%.
The most interesting fact was how much of a favorite May is in the East. The Tigers won 9108 simulated titles, along with 26,408 finalist finishes, showing them in the finals a solid 35.5% of the time. The closest team in the East would be Avalon with 2174 titles and 10235 second place finishes.
The biggest longshot to win the title is Morton (153). This is because they have a murderer’s row they would have to get past in the West before they would even get a shot at the title.
How to understand the chart:
The numbers represent the number of times a team lost in the particular round, except for the final column (Championship). If you add across a row, it should total 100,000.
