Forbes.com Posted: 07.18.13
Well, supersonic jet travel may be practical, but will the market pay the price?
For years, Jeff Miller has been exploring an array of issues surrounding the feasibility of supersonic business jet development. This is part one of a two-part series where he addresses some of the questions and provokes many more.
Jeff Miller (
[email protected]) specializes in corporate communications for the business aviation and luxury goods markets, and operates his own advertising agency dedicated to brand marketing. He has led corporate communications for Learjet and Gulfstream.
The Anchorage airport has become a typical refueling stop for U.S.-to-Asia business jet flights. The aim is to get in and out fast. The terminals (known as FBOs) that service business aircraft are practiced at turning business flights quickly—sometimes in just 30 minutes. Passengers and pilots want to minimize ground delays. After all, business jets are only midway through 15 or 16-hour journeys.
Sure, some of the newest intercontinental-range jets like the Gulfstream G650 and the Bombardier Global 8000, which boast extraordinary 8000 or 9000 statute miles range (effectively the distance between Chicago and Singapore), can eliminate the fuel stop. Even so, long-range business travel has a downside. It takes a physical toll on the toughest executives even when they’re flying aboard the most well-appointed business jets offering productive, comfortable cabins with outstanding eating, sleeping and work amenities. Still, it’s not uncommon for senior executives to make more than one trip from Brazil or the U.S. to Asia every month, and traffic flows the other way, too, with executives from Taiwan, Hong Kong and elsewhere heading to the Americas.
Would these executives pay a 30 or 40 percent premium for a supersonic jet to cut those missions to half the time or less? The answer is almost certainly yes.
The rationale for a supersonic business jet is stronger today than when companies such as Gulfstream, Dassault and others began displaying Concorde-like models at trade shows more than a decade ago.
At that time, the principal market for business jets was in the U.S., with business aircraft designed principally for U.S. coast-to-coast or U.S. to Europe routes. Trade patterns have changed, and the action today is not just in major business jet destinations and markets in China, India, Brazil and Russia, but also in Australia, Malaysia, South Korea, Turkey, South Africa, Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates among many other emerging global trade destinations.
The number one criterion for business jet purchasers, according to Honeywell Aerospace, is range. It is no wonder that a jet such as the Mach 0.925 Gulfstream G650 sells so well, even though it is, in truth, only modestly faster than an earlier generation of jets. The G650 will still save an hour on the longest trips, and with more than 200 purchased the first day it went on sale, the market has resoundingly indicated that an hour saved is worth paying for.
Even before the economic emergence of China and other rapid growth regions outside of North America and Europe, market studies conducted by Rolland Vincent Associates for Aerion Corporation (one contender in the supersonic arena) showed a market, for nearly 300 aircraft at $80 million a piece. This was in 2004/2005 and was more than sufficient to generate excellent returns for the manufacturer. At the time, there were few if any long-range jet operators to survey in emerging markets, which is hardly the case today.
Aerion commissioned a second survey in the depths of the recession in 2009, which returned a larger estimate. The company now projects a market above 400 units. Its surveys stipulated that supersonic flight over the U.S., due to regulations, would not be permitted, but those regulations may change if new technology can eliminate the terrestrial impact of sonic boom.
My guess is the global market today is higher still, and it will go higher if U.S. regulators accept noise levels produced by sonic-boom suppressing innovations.
It’s not as if supersonic flight is a new phenomenon. Chuck Yeager broke the sound barrier in 1947. The Concorde was in service from 1975 to 2003 when a Concorde crashed on takeoff from Paris abruptly ending a short era of supersonic air travel.
For many in the aviation industry, the end of Concorde service seemed a step backward. We should be going faster, not slower. Perhaps supersonic commercial service remains economically impractical, but those with the strongest convictions pressed forward with the idea of a supersonic business jet. Who would build such an aircraft? And when?
Stay tuned for more answers in the next installment.
