Fajitapete's week 3 picks

fajitapete

fajitapete

Six-man fan
I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express so these might seem a little strange, but still working on some of the smoothing stuff. . .

So far the results that are in:


Abbott vs Blum - - - Abbott by 47 - actual was 48
Arlington High Point Prep vs Humble Legacy Christian - - - Arlington High Point Prep by 21 - actual was 46
Aspermont vs Paint Creek - - - Aspermont by 49 - actual was 54
Austin Veritas vs Austin NYOS - - - Austin Veritas by 39 - actual was 48
Balmorhea vs El Paso Faith - - - Balmorhea by 39 - actual was 35
Boerne Geneva vs San Antonio FEAST - - - Boerne Geneva by 1 - actual was 33
Buena Vista vs Garden City JV - - - Buena Vista by 13 - actual was 16
Bynum vs Iredell - - - Bynum by 1 - actual was 25
Calvert vs Buckholts - - - Calvert by 16 - actual was 8
Chillicothe vs Bryson - - - Chillicothe by 12 - actual was 41
Dallas The Covenant vs Azle Christian - - - Dallas The Covenant by 31 - actual was 30
Evant vs Lohn - - - Evant by 49 - actual was 46
Follett vs Happy - - - Follett by 5 - actual was 12
Fort Worth Nazarene vs Richardson Canyon Creek - - - Fort Worth Nazarene by 48 - actual was 28
Gordon vs Dallas Academy - - - Gordon by 6 - actual was 46
Granbury NCTA vs Dublin Premiere Charter - - - Granbury NCTA by 52 - actual was 75
Grandfalls-Royalty vs El Paso Jesus Chapel - - - Grandfalls-Royalty by 47 - actual was 58
Hedley vs Hart - - - Hedley by 17 - actual was 42
Houston Mt Carmel vs Clear Lake Christian - - - Houston Mt Carmel by 29 - actual was 8
Ira vs Garden City - - - Ira by 43 - actual was 45
Jayton vs Moran - - - Jayton by 51 - actual was 50
Leveretts Chapel vs Marshall Christian - - - Leveretts Chapel by 30 - actual was 34
Loop vs Lorenzo - - - Loop by 26 - actual was 30
May vs Blanket - - - May by 37 - actual was 38
McKinney Cornerstone vs Campbell - - - McKinney Cornerstone by 0 - actual was 6
Miami vs Lefors - - - Miami by 44 - actual was 12
Milford vs Avalon - - - Milford by 11 - actual was 49
Newcastle vs Knox City - - - Newcastle by 8 - actual was 6
Motley County vs Paducah - - - Motley County by 45 - actual was 2
Northside vs Saint Jo - - - Northside by 24 - actual was 48
Oakwood vs Trinidad - - - Oakwood by 14 - actual was 46
Petersburg vs New Home - - - Petersburg by 49 - actual was 48
Plainview Christian vs Lazbuddie - - - Plainview Christian by 50 - actual was 15
Richland Springs vs Gustine - - - Richland Springs by 47 - actual was 54
Robert Lee vs Sterling City - - - Robert Lee by 17 - actual was 46
Round Rock Christian vs Williamson County Home School - - - Round Rock Christian by 16 - actual was 23
Santa Anna vs Mullin - - - Santa Anna by 38 - actual was 46
Savoy vs Gold-Burg - - - Savoy by 34 - actual was 48
Seguin Lifegate vs San Antonio Town East - - - Seguin Lifegate by 35 - actual was 52
Sidney vs Oglesby - - - Sidney by 48 - actual was 47
Silverton vs McLean - - - Silverton by 32 - actual was 30
Spur vs Guthrie - - - Spur by 9 - actual was 42
Stephenville Faith vs Brownwood Victory Life - - - Stephenville Faith by 51 - actual was 47
Strawn vs Lueders-Avoca - - - Strawn by 49 - actual was 46
Trent vs Blackwell - - - Trent by 10 - actual was 6
Valley vs Crowell - - - Valley by 33 - actual was 49
Waco Methodist Home Charter vs Fort Worth THESA - - - Waco Methodist Home Charter by 2 - actual was 27
Waco Live Oak vs Alvin Living Stones - - - Waco Live Oak by 48 - actual was 45
Water Valley vs Abilene Christian - - - Water Valley by 44 - actual was 46
Welch vs Whiteface - - - Welch by 38 - actual was 46
Wichita Falls Notre Dame vs Harrold - - - Wichita Falls Notre Dame by 39 - actual was 56


And these are the ones missed :(


Amarillo Holy Cross vs Kress - - - Amarillo Holy Cross by 19
Comanche Paradigm vs Mineral Wells Community Christian - - - Comanche Paradigm by 30
Sands vs Highland - - - Sands by 40
San Marcos Homeschool vs Bryan Allen - - - San Marcos Homeschool by 40
Midland Trinity vs Grady - - - Midland Trinity by 21
Jonesboro vs Zephyr - - - Jonesboro by 2
Panther Creek vs Rochelle - - - Panther Creek by 5
Rotan vs Loraine - - - Rotan by 0 was a 7pt game
Walnut Springs vs Aquilla - - - Walnut Springs by 31 wow Aquilla steps up





Anton vs Whitharral - - - Anton by 5
Apple Springs vs Bloomburg - - - Apple Springs by 47
Bastrop Tribe vs Christian Academy of SA - - - Bastrop Tribe by 47
Bastrop Tribe vs Prairie Lea - - - Bastrop Tribe by 51
Bellville Faith vs Houston Texas Christian - - - Bellville Faith by 34
Borden County vs Hermleigh - - - Borden County by 47
Bryan BVCHEA vs Austin Capital Christian Home School - - - Bryan BVCHEA by 11
Bulverde Bracken vs Brenham Christian - - - Bulverde Bracken by 49
Central Texas ECHO vs Arlington Newman - - - Central Texas ECHO by 48
Cleburne Christian vs Wylie Prep - - - Cleburne Christian by 2
Corpus Christi Annapolis vs San Antonio The Winston - - - Corpus Christi Annapolis by 1
Cotton Center vs Southland - - - Cotton Center by 33
Covington vs Cranfills Gap - - - Covington by 14
Crosby Victory and Praise vs Kingwood Northeast Christian - - - Crosby Victory and Praise by 35
Eden vs Brookesmith - - - Eden by 24
El Paso Home School vs Dell City - - - El Paso Home School by 36
Fannindel vs Greenville Phoenix - - - Fannindel by 9
Fort Davis vs Sanderson - - - Fort Davis by 15
FT. Hancock vs El Paso Immanuel Christian - - - FT. Hancock by 29
Granbury Cornerstone vs Lingleville - - - Granbury Cornerstone by 2
Groom vs Higgins - - - Groom by 50
Heath Fulton vs Greenville Christian - - - Heath Fulton by 17
High Island vs Baytown Christian - - - High Island by 7
Huntsville Alpha Omega vs Sugar Land HCYA Fort Bend - - - Huntsville Alpha Omega by 24
Irving Faustina vs Decatur Wise Co - - - Irving Faustina by 35
Karnack vs Longview Trinity - - - Karnack by 33
Kerrville Our Lady of the Hills vs Austin Hill Country - - - Kerrville Our Lady of the Hills by 24
Klondike vs Wellman-Union - - - Klondike by 42
Kopperl vs Morgan - - - Kopperl by 15
Lometa vs Cherokee - - - Lometa by 49
Lubbock Kingdom Prep vs Lubbock Harmony - - - Lubbock Kingdom Prep by 45
Meadow vs Rankin - - - Meadow by 6
Mt. Calm vs Waxahachie Advantage - - - Mt. Calm by 45
Nazareth vs Ropes - - - Nazareth by 15
Orange Community Christian vs Katy Faith West - - - Orange Community Christian by 48
Paint Rock vs Rising Star - - - Paint Rock by 40
Pasadena First Baptist vs West Columbia Charter - - - Pasadena First Baptist by 29
Patton Springs vs Benjamin - - - Patton Springs by 8
River City Believers vs San Antonio New Life - - - River City Believers by 18
San Antonio Castle Hills vs Fredericksburg Heritage - - - San Antonio Castle Hills by 6
San Marcos Hill Country vs Killeen Memorial - - - San Marcos Hill Country by 17
Sierra Blanca vs Marfa - - - Sierra Blanca by 24
Sugar Land Logos Prep vs Magnolia Legacy Prep - - - Sugar Land Logos Prep by 49
Throckmorton vs Lucas Christian - - - Throckmorton by 46
Tomball Home School vs Houston Emery-Weiner - - - Tomball Home School by 10
Tomball Home School vs Bryan Harmony - - - Tomball Home School by 51
Tyler HEAT vs Chester - - - Tyler HEAT by 46
Tyler Kings Academy vs Balch Springs Christian - - - Tyler Kings Academy by 21
Veribest vs Westbrook - - - Veribest by 43
Victoria Home School Cobras vs San Antonio Sunnybrook - - - Victoria Home School Cobras by 33
Watauga Harvest vs Willow Point Trinity - - - Watauga Harvest by 47
Weatherford Express vs Irving Universal - - - Weatherford Express by 3
Wichita Falls Christian vs Dallas Tyler Street - - - Wichita Falls Christian by 6
Wilson vs O'Donnell - - - Wilson by 3
Woodson vs Rule - - - Woodson by 47
 
I am not saying you are wrong, in fact far from it. I think your "toy" is pretty dang good.

Veribest vs Westbrook - - - Veribest by 43

You don't see that every week!! :)
 
my picks:
Jonesboro vs Zephyr - Jonesboro by 20
Aquilla vs Walnut Springs - Aquilla by 8
Milford vs Avalon - Milford by 30
Oakwood vs Trinidad - Oakwood by 12
Abbott vs Blum - Abbott by 45+
Dallas the Covenant vs Azle Christian - DC by 20
Gordon vs Dallas Academy - Gordon by 32
Groom vs Higgins - Groom by 45+
Ira vs Garden City - Ira by 38
Lometa vs Cherokee - Lometa by 45+
Meadow vs Rankin - Rankin by 16
Panther Creek vs Rochelle - Rochelle by 8
Petersburg vs New Home - Petersburg by 45+
Rotan vs Lorraine - Lorraine by 8
Valley vs Crowell - Crowell by ?

 
topher80":1whapgwv said:
I am not saying you are wrong, in fact far from it. I think your "toy" is pretty dang good.

Veribest vs Westbrook - - - Veribest by 43

You don't see that every week!! :)
Click to expand...

Some teams have fallen on hard times, That’s one of the things I like about 6-man ball, things change so fast. Lets look how I got to the prediction:
Starting with Westbrook I assigned a porwer rating of 45.7513, Westbrook was a 10pt underdog to Blackwell but lost by 48 so their power was reduced to 24.1566.
For week one they were a 31 point underdog to Wilson but lost by 48 so the power rating went down to 14.1219
Week two they were a 12 point underdog to Lohn but lost by 26 so the power was reduced to 7.85

Veribest had a preseason power of 61.7764. in zero week they were an underdog to Santa Ana by 2 but lost by 47, their power went down to 34.8670.
Week one, they were underdog to Brooksmith by 34 but won by 49 so their power went back up to 53.2505
Week two they were picked over Panther Creek by 1 but lost by 2(delta of 3) so their power went down to 50.7573

That brings us to this week’s game Veribest(50.9842) vs Westbrook(7.8501)
Toy sys the apparent difference is 43.1341 points and the smoothing algorithm calculated the spread to be 43

Now you know - except the calculation to pick the effect of the delta is modified each week, not much , just a bit, trying to fit a curve a little bit closer that the week before. . .
 
fajitapete":3axyqiuf said:
L.ESSARY":3axyqiuf said:
With all due respect many of these picks are wayyyyy off!

#jussayin
Click to expand...

You most likely right, but which ones are the ones you see as totally off? just asking . . .
Click to expand...


Just a few I think will be 45+ games.

Dallas the Covenant over Azle Christian 45+
Jonesboro over Zephyr 45+
Milford over Avalon 45+
Oakwood over Trinidad 45+
Calvert over Buckholts 45+
Walnut Springs over Aquilla 45+
 
fajitapete":2ux3ogpg said:
L.ESSARY":2ux3ogpg said:
With all due respect many of these picks are wayyyyy off!

#jussayin
Click to expand...

You most likely right, but which ones are the ones you see as totally off? just asking . . .
Click to expand...


Just a few I think will be 45+ games.

Dallas the Covenant over Azle Christian 45+
Jonesboro over Zephyr 45+
Milford over Avalon 45+
Oakwood over Trinidad 45+
Calvert over Buckholts 45+
Walnut Springs over Aquilla 45+
 
Fajita......

Here are a couple of games you little gadget will DEFINITELY miss....


4. Valley by 33 over Crowell.......... NO WAY valley beats crowell by 33...... This will be a 12 point or less ball game.
I'm leaning towards Crowell to win this one.
So your machine is actually saying Valley would 45 BC .... IF.... your toy is saying Valley by 33 or Crowell......
---I've seen Crowell 2 times.... NO ONE IS 45ing THEM---

3. Nazareth by 15 over Ropes ..... Ropes wins this one by 20
---Your toy gives TOO MUCH respect for Naz & Rotan----
--They need to adjust to the 6-man game---


2. Spur by 9 over Guthrie..... Spur by 45


1. Jonesboro by 2 over Zephyr...... Jonesboro BIG over zephyr
 
CowboyP":1qg76208 said:
my picks:
Jonesboro vs Zephyr - Jonesboro by 20
Aquilla vs Walnut Springs - Aquilla by 8
Milford vs Avalon - Milford by 30
Oakwood vs Trinidad - Oakwood by 12
Abbott vs Blum - Abbott by 45+
Dallas the Covenant vs Azle Christian - DC by 20
Gordon vs Dallas Academy - Gordon by 32
Groom vs Higgins - Groom by 45+
Ira vs Garden City - Ira by 38
Lometa vs Cherokee - Lometa by 45+
Meadow vs Rankin - Rankin by 16
Panther Creek vs Rochelle - Rochelle by 8
Petersburg vs New Home - Petersburg by 45+
Rotan vs Lorraine - Lorraine by 8
Valley vs Crowell - Crowell by ?
Click to expand...

Lets say a ? ='s 1. 1 is a W so I'll take it!!
 
Wonder Dog":21a45ylc said:
Fajita......

Here are a couple of games you little gadget will DEFINITELY miss....


4. Valley by 33 over Crowell.......... NO WAY valley beats crowell by 33...... This will be a 12 point or less ball game.
I'm leaning towards Crowell to win this one.
So your machine is actually saying Valley would 45 BC .... IF.... your toy is saying Valley by 33 or Crowell......
---I've seen Crowell 2 times.... NO ONE IS 45ing THEM---

3. Nazareth by 15 over Ropes ..... Ropes wins this one by 20
---Your toy gives TOO MUCH respect for Naz & Rotan----
--They need to adjust to the 6-man game---


2. Spur by 9 over Guthrie..... Spur by 45


1. Jonesboro by 2 over Zephyr...... Jonesboro BIG over zephyr
Click to expand...


Thanks WD!!! I feel this one will come down to who makes their PAT's. Hope my Cats prove me wrong though!! Crowell tends to play Valley well at HOME normally, but when we go up the hill not so much. Guess its the altitude? We have a good group of hard working kids this year.
 
oakwoodalumni56":1n4256y4 said:
Aquilla vs Walnut Springs - Aquilla by 8
Click to expand...


Sorry cowboy but i don think aquilla has a chance this week either
Click to expand...
We'll find out Friday. Aquilla has been 45'd twice, but neither team was able to do it in the 1st half. Also, you may want to consider who they played. Jonesboro and Dallas the Covenant are among the best in the state.
 
oakwoodalumni56":1b9662re said:
very true but i still dont think aquilla has what it takes this year bud
Click to expand...
I have a slightly different opinion. Aquilla has players with talent. Unfortunately some of them aren't giving 100%. If they get it together, I think they can make the third round. If they don't, Avalon will go to the playoffs while Aquilla gets the round balls out.
 
my picks:
Jonesboro vs Zephyr - Jonesboro by 28
Aquilla vs Walnut Springs - WS by 16
Milford vs Avalon - Milford by 45
Oakwood vs Trinidad - Oakwood by 20
Abbott vs Blum - Abbott by 45+
Dallas the Covenant vs Azle Christian - DC by 42
Gordon vs Dallas Academy - Gordon by 20
Ira vs Garden City - Ira by 12
Lometa vs Cherokee - Cherokee by 16
Meadow vs Rankin - Rankin by 22
Panther Creek vs Rochelle - Rochelle by 45
Petersburg vs New Home - Petersburg by 45
Rotan vs Lorraine - Lorraine by 12
Valley vs Crowell - Crowell by 16
 

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