Division 2 ranking after 5 weeks of play

[fajitapete]

Division 2 UIL Schools
About a 72 point spread between #1 and #20


STAR 99999999999999999999999.1 Special ranking for HHR&WPC&SWW

Richland Springs 142.82
Motley County
Jonesboro
Strawn
Amherst
Newcastle
Lefors
Sterling City
Grandfalls-Royalty
Cherokee
Trent
Groom
Miami
Wilson
Calvert
Buckholts
Bryson
Gustine
Panther Creek
Guthrie 70.64

results brought to you by the Frito Pie Cerebral Randomizing Algorithmic Prognosticator

 

[Donkgrind]

Hey Pete would love to hear an explanation for how groom is ranked one spot ahead of Miami when groom beat a near bottom ranked opponent Silverton last week by 1 point, then Miami 45s the same Silverton team this week early In the third??? Looks to me ur system is a good 44 points off across the board.

 

[smokeyjoe53]

Well it's about time. This proves that griping pays off. Take heed CowboyP, that's how it's done.

 

[fajitapete]

Hey Pete would love to hear an explanation for how groom is ranked one spot ahead of Miami when groom beat a near bottom ranked opponent Silverton last week by 1 point, then Miami 45s the same Silverton team this week early In the third??? Looks to me ur system is a good 44 points off across the board.

Groom started the season with a power rate of 90.39
Miami started the season with a power rate of 62.95

Each game has a calculated spread. The more you beat the spread the more rewarded. If you are picked to beat someone by50 pts and you lose, expect a spanking. If you are picked to win by 50, but only win by 1, you going to be punished. But it is never about the team you beat, it is about the whole season and right now Groom has a ranking of 88.44 while Miami is 86.52 But if you want I’ll add 44 points across the board,
Groom has a ranking of 132.44 while Miami is 130.52

Here are the ‘results’ for each team:
Week0 Groom(90.39)vs Hart(26.13) score 29-12 Groom goes to 105.99
Week1 Groom(105.99)vs Follett(87.47) score 6-52 Groom went to 84.32
Week2 Groom(84.32)vs Darrouzett(25.93) score 52-6 Groom goes to 85.24
Week3 Groom(85.24) vs Silverton(39.04) score 37-36 Groom goes to 78.84 – you can win and lose power
Week4 Groom(78.84)vs Chillicothe(67.37) score 53-28 Groom goes to 88.44


Miami started the season with a power rate of 62.95

Week0 Miami(62.95)vs Loraine(88.30) score 29-12 Miami went to 85.15
Week1 Miami(85.15)vs Anton(38.08) score 60-12 Miami went to 87.55
Week2 Miami(87.55)vs Follett(111.11) score 44-66 Miami went to 91.50
Week3 Miami(91.50)vs Petersburg(124.67)score 0-46 Miami went to 84.10
Week4 Miami(84.10)vs Silverton(39.04) score 54-6 Miami went to 86.52

 

[CowboyP]

Well it's about time. This proves that griping pays off. Take heed CowboyP, that's how it's done.

He already cashed my check, but Aquilla still isn't in the top 10. I'm going to send some boys to talk to him.

 

[fajitapete]

Well it's about time. This proves that griping pays off. Take heed CowboyP, that's how it's done.

He already cashed my check, but Aquilla still isn't in the top 10. I'm going to send some boys to talk to him.

baby steps CP, baby steps. They made the top 20 but will really need to play this week to stay there. This might be the toughest game they play till the playoffs.

 

[Donkgrind]

Thank you for the explanation it's all clear as mudd now, so u were about 22 points off on grooms starting power rating I think u said they were 90 and shoulda been around 78 and Miami was at 62 and shoulda been around 84 hince the 44 point difference. Your starting power ratings were so far off it seems to be possible that we could have a suprise new state champion and finish ranked 10th in the state lol!!

 

[smokeyjoe53]

Thank you for the explanation it's all clear as mudd now, so u were about 22 points off on grooms starting power rating I think u said they were 90 and shoulda been around 78 and Miami was at 62 and shoulda been around 84 hince the 44 point difference. Your starting power ratings were so far off it seems to be possible that we could have a suprise new state champion and finish ranked 10th in the state lol!!

exactly

 

[CowboyP]

baby steps CP, baby steps. They made the top 20 but will really need to play this week to stay there. This might be the toughest game they play till the playoffs.

Hopefully, our starting LB will be back this week.

 

[rainjacktx]

The whole "problem" with Pete's machine is that the beginning assumptions are way, way off.

Another minor problem is that failure to cover the spread is a loss in the eyes of the computer. A win should be treated as a win. The spread is a subjective assumption, yet is the chief determinate of whether you get positive or negative points.

 

[fajitapete]

The whole "problem" with Pete's machine is that the beginning assumptions are way, way off.

Another minor problem is that failure to cover the spread is a loss in the eyes of the computer. A win should be treated as a win. The spread is a subjective assumption, yet is the chief determinate of whether you get positive or negative points.

Two statement -two answers - beginning assumptions were accurate enough to predict 72% correct picks for week0 not to bad considering I had little or no knowledge of non-uil teams.

second part -
Well, think about this:
team1 has a power rating of 250
team2 has a power rating of 10
final score team1 8 team2 7 8-7 team1 won - it is treated as a win the W goes in the win column but the ranking system could care less, it's job is to ADJUST based on the game RESULTS. for each team there is 3 possible conclusions:
team1 is less than 250 power rating ,team1 is a 250 power rating, team1 is more than 250 power rating
team2 is less than 10 power rating ,team2 is a 10 power rating, team2 is more than 10 power rating

SCORE 8-7 conclusion; team1 is less than 250 power rating and team2 is more than 10 power rating
Make the adjustments and next week a more realistic power rating will be used for both teams. This is why the systems get better with time.

If we use wins to determine rankings then the current top ten in DIV 1 would be:
tied for #1
Abbott 5-0
Aquilla 5-0
Aspermont 5-0
Gordon 5-0
Rankin 5-0
Throckmorton 5-0
Water Valley 5-0
Zephyr 5-0

There you go, cowboyP gets bonus of the infallible rainjack rating system

 

[Donkgrind]

I think u proved rainjacks point, Ur beginning power ratings were about that far off a 250 rated team could play a 10 rated team and and cover the spread by 239 points. I'm afraid 15 weeks is not enuff time for your system to catch up. In d1 if throck Ira or rankin doesn't win state Ur system will have a state champion ranked below number 1 unless u manually change it. Being those are the only three teams u gave a beginning power rating that was even close, and if rs wasn't such a clear favorite to walk through d2 the same would happen in your d2 rankings.

 

[CowboyP]

There you go, cowboyP gets bonus of the infallible rainjack rating system

I don't want Aquilla ranked #1! That will make their opponents try harder to beat them. Come on pete, I thought we agreed on #5...

 

[fajitapete]

I think u proved rainjacks point, Ur beginning power ratings were about that far off a 250 rated team could play a 10 rated team and and cover the spread by 239 points. I'm afraid 15 weeks is not enuff time for your system to catch up. In d1 if throck Ira or rankin doesn't win state Ur system will have a state champion ranked below number 1 unless u manually change it. Being those are the only three teams u gave a beginning power rating that was even close, and if rs wasn't such a clear favorite to walk through d2 the same would happen in your d2 rankings.

If you were aware of the system you would know that it has several algorithms in place to address a potential match up between 250 vs 10 teams. There won't be a 239 point spread, but the need to cover the 45-55 point spread is in place.

Your concern about having state champions ranked less than #1 might be because you don't understand how adjustments are made. After week ten the only changes made are to the teams still playing. a team winning 5 additional games will see an significant increase in power.

The system is working pretty good, based on the power rankings last week it predicted the correct outcome 83% of the time. The difference in the projected margin and the actual margin for more than half the teams were in single digits.

 

[rainjacktx]

Two statement -two answers - beginning assumptions were accurate enough to predict 72% correct picks for week0 not to bad considering I had little or no knowledge of non-uil teams.

second part -
Well, think about this:
team1 has a power rating of 250
team2 has a power rating of 10
final score team1 8 team2 7 8-7 team1 won - it is treated as a win the W goes in the win column but the ranking system could care less, it's job is to ADJUST based on the game RESULTS. for each team there is 3 possible conclusions:
team1 is less than 250 power rating ,team1 is a 250 power rating, team1 is more than 250 power rating
team2 is less than 10 power rating ,team2 is a 10 power rating, team2 is more than 10 power rating

SCORE 8-7 conclusion; team1 is less than 250 power rating and team2 is more than 10 power rating
Make the adjustments and next week a more realistic power rating will be used for both teams. This is why the systems get better with time.

If we use wins to determine rankings then the current top ten in DIV 1 would be:
tied for #1
Abbott 5-0
Aquilla 5-0
Aspermont 5-0
Gordon 5-0
Rankin 5-0
Throckmorton 5-0
Water Valley 5-0
Zephyr 5-0

There you go, cowboyP gets bonus of the infallible rainjack rating system

I don't think you understand what I said. The spread should be used to weight the increase or decrease in power rating, but if Team A is picked to win by 240 (or even 50), and the game is over at a spread of 45 points, the adjustment should not be a negative to the victorious team because the rules of the game (and a coaches desire to play everyone in a blowout) forbid them from achieving the predictions of a program.

You admitted that your beginning power rankings were based on last years rankings plus a few iterations and some logical thought. I've already said that next year's starting point should be more accurate than this year's. I think your starting point this season is not very accurate. When the playoffs start, I also think my opinion will be verified.

I'm not saying that you should go solely off the W-L column, I just think you are giving the spread too much weight.

 

[kbjoe1]

rain man
i understand your point but how do you assign a numeric value for the unknown... ie injury, illness, got in fight with his gf the night before, some one going out with another’s girl, oh or stayed out to late. was working at there job after school and got hurt. they have hobbies or jobs or things the do in play that could hurt them ultimately cause him to miss the game,,, etc etc etc etc sos is no dif in how they fared with like opponents.. added it all up divide and see where it lands.. oh yea throw out the out liers up and down figure the standard deviation
and out pops the statistical winner

 

[rainjacktx]

rain man
i understand your point but how do you assign a numeric value for the unknown... ie injury, illness, got in fight with his gf the night before, some one going out with another’s girl, oh or stayed out to late. was working at there job after school and got hurt. they have hobbies or jobs or things the do in play that could hurt them ultimately cause him to miss the game,,, etc etc etc etc sos is no dif in how they fared with like opponents.. added it all up divide and see where it lands.. oh yea throw out the out liers up and down figure the standard deviation
and out pops the statistical winner

If the point spread is larger than the the rules of the game allow, then it really doesn't matter what your QB's girlfriend said to him immediately before the game.

But I wasn't talking about every tertiary issue being accounted for. If a team - favored by 55 - plays the JV in the second quarter and then comes out in the 3rd and ends the game by winning by 46 points, it will be punished for not living up to the expectations of the program.

 

[Donkgrind]

He's not givin the spread to much weight I don't think, when u have a weak schedule all u can do is 45 a team and if another team plays two or three strong teams in a row and more than cover the spread in each one then they will move up when all your team can do is stay pretty much the same. I think his system is putting way! way! way!!!! To much weight on the starting power rankings he must have drew out of a hat blind folded!!

 

[fajitapete]

He's not givin the spread to much weight I don't think, when u have a weak schedule all u can do is 45 a team and if another team plays two or three strong teams in a row and more than cover the spread in each one then they will move up when all your team can do is stay pretty much the same. I think his system is putting way! way! way!!!! To much weight on the starting power rankings he must have drew out of a hat blind folded!!

Since you must have superior knowledge to be able to ascertain that the starting power I assigned to each team was so wrong, I will be glad to start over using your assigned powers and will work forward through all games to the present time. I do this twice a year anyway, after weeks 4 and 8 when the system takes the calculated power of the teams and go back and uses it as the starting power and rolls all the games forward again to the new week 5 or week9 power. It tends to mittgate the possible errors that could have been introduced with the starting powers.

So here is the list of teams, I'll need the numbers soon so I can get to work on it.

Valley, Follett, Kress, Hart, McLean, Crowell, Paducah, Chillicothe, Northside, Petersburg, Spur, Southland, Lorenzo, Ropes, Meadow, Whiteface, Lubbock Harmony, Wellman-Union, O'Donnell, Klondike, Sands, Grady, Ira, Aspermont, Highland, Hermleigh, Garden City, Rankin, Fort Davis, Sierra Blanca, Water Valley, Robert Lee, Veribest,
Eden, Throckmorton, Knox City, Gordon, Paint Creek, May, Blanket, Zephyr, Santa Anna, Irving Universal, Saint Jo, Gold-Burg, Bloomburg, Avalon, Walnut Springs,
Covington, Kopperl, Waxahachie Advantage, McKinney Cornerstone, Oakwood, Coolidge, Apple Springs, Leveretts Chapel, Penelope, Abbott, Aquilla, Bynum, Lometa,
Rochelle, Evant, Prairie Lea, Amherst, Weatherford Home School, Balmorhea, Benjamin, Blackwell, Fort Worth Christian Life, Brookesmith, Bryson, Buckholts, Buena Vista,
Calvert, Cherokee, SA Radiance Charter, Cotton Center, Cranfills Gap, Darrouzett, Dawson, Fannindel, Forestburg, Grandfalls-Royalty, Groom, Gustine, Guthrie, Happy,
Harrold, Hedley, Iredell, Jayton, Jonesboro, Karnack, Lazbuddie, Lefors, Humble Christian Life, Lohn, Loop, Loraine, Lueders-Avoca, Miami, Milford, Moran, Motley County, Mullin, New Home, Newcastle, Novice, Oglesby, Paint Rock, Panther Creek, Patton Springs, Richland Springs, Rising Star, Rule, Sanderson, Sidney, Silverton, Star, Sterling ity, Strawn, Trent, Trinidad, Westbrook, Whitharral, Wilson, Woodson, SA River City, Greenville Phoenix, Fort Worth Harvest, Cleburne Christian Academy, SA Castle Hills, Parker-Tarrant Homeschool, Texas Home Educators Sports Association, Wichita Falls Christian, Westlake Academy, Mt. Calm, Irving StoneGate Christian, Athens Christian rep, SA Lutheran, Bell County Central Texas Christian Home School, Wylie Preparatory, Balch Springs Christian, SA New Life, Dallas The Winston, Agape Christian Academy,
lpha Omega Academy, Bellville Faith, CHANT - Christian Homeschool Athletes of North Texas, Cornerstone Christian Academy, Covenant Classical School, El Paso Panthers ome School, Harmony Science Academy, Lakeland Christian Academy, Mansfield Fellowship, Nazarene Christian Academy, Dublin Paradigm, Plainview Christian Academy, Waco Vanguard College Prep, Williams Preparatory Academy, SA The Atonement, Borden County, Higgins, Dallas The Covenant JV, Azle Christian JV, Gustine JV, Irving niversal Academy, Covington JV, Brenham Christian, Bulverde Bracken Christian, Dallas The Covenant, Dallas Tyler Street, Fort Hancock, Seguin Lifegate, Austin Hill Country, Houston Emery-Weiner, Rockwall Heritage, West Columbia Charter, Abilene Christian, Arlington High Point Prep, Marble Falls Faith, Waco Live Oak, Kerrville Our Lady of the Hills, Azle Christian, Tomball Rosehill, Fredericksburg Heritage, Fruitvale, San Marcos Homeschool, Mineral Wells Community Christian, Blum, Temple Holy Trinity Catholic, Valentine, Arlington St. Paul Prep, Amarillo San Jacinto, EP Immanuel Christian, Dickinson Pine Drive, Midland Trinity, Bryan Allen Academy, Boerne Geneva,
EP Faith, Temple Centex Homeschool, Brownwood Victory Life, Lingleville, Lucas Christian, SA The Winston, Amarillo Holy Cross, Greenville Christian, Denton Calvary, Wichita Falls Christ Academy, Christian Academy of SA, Marshall Christian Academy, Corpus Christi Annapolis, Round Rock Christian, Dallas Academy, Tomball Christian Homeschool, EP Jesus Chapel, Lewisville Temple Christian, Bastrop Tribe Consolidated, Decatur Wise County Home School, Anton, Watauga Harvest, Clear Lake Christian,
eatherford Christian, Chester, SA Sunnybrook, Irving Faustina, WF Notre Dame, Tyler King's Academy, Longview Trinity, Lake Jackson Brazosport Christian, Willow Park Trinity, Houston Mount Carmel, Stephenville Faith, Baytown Christian, Fort Worth Nazarene, Granbury Happy Hill, Austin Christian Homeschool, New Braunfels Christian, SA FEAST Homeschool, SA Town East, Alvin Living Stones, Waco Methodist Childrens Home, Pasadena First Baptist, Heath Fulton, Austin NYOS, Houston Sanchez Charter,
Comanche Paradigm, Houston Texas Christian, Austin Veritas, Sugar Land Logos Prep, Fort Worth Hill, Kingwood Northeast Christian, Waco Parkview, Lubbock Kingdom Prep, Lubbock Christ the King, Williamson County Home School, Bryan Christian Homeschool, Killeen Memorial, Newman International Academy, Orange Community Christian,
Humble Legacy Christian, Tyler Home Education Athletics, Texas Christian Home Educators, Victoria Home School COBRA, Newcastle JV, Roswell Valley Christian NM, SA New Life JV, Valley JV, Central Texas ECHO, Corsicana Agape, Fort Worth Fellowship, Granbury Cornerstone, Grand Prairie Advantage Academy, Huntsville Alpha Omega,
Waxahachie Advantage Academy, Aledo Christian, Byers, Morgan, Kerrville Our Lady of the Hills JV, SA FEAST Homeschool JV, Tomball Christian Homeschool JV, Chillicothe JV, Austin Christian Homeschool JV, Joshua Christian, Dallas Williams Prep, Dublin Premiere, Fort McMurray (CAN), Kennedale Fellowship, Knox City JV, Dell City, Lucas Christian JV, Boerne Geneva JV, Lake Arthur NM, Fort Hancock JV, Throckmorton JV, SA Believers, Silverton JV, Milford JV, Strawn JV, Bryan Harmony, Follett JV,
Highland JV, Austin Hill Country JV, Cleburne Christian Academy JV, Dickinson Pine Drive JV, Sands JV, EP Immanuel Christian JV, Fort Worth Glenview, Miami JV,

 

[CowboyP]

Pete, how long do you think it will take him to assign starting numbers?