Div 1 ranking in after 4 weeks

fajitapete

fajitapete

Six-man fan
Top to bottom 20 after 4 weeks of play.

Ira
Water Valley
Sands
Petersburg
Throckmorton
Rankin
Ropes
Lometa
Garden City
Aspermont
Abbott
Zephyr
Borden County
Follett
Valley
Klondike
Gordon
Leveretts Chapel
Fort Davis
Meadow
 
Pete, This top twenty, in my opinion, is more than a little out of whack! It may be right where you imagined it should be. It may even correct itself by the second round of the playoffs. But, right now its not very accurate.
 
Blue Bird":38rqdjac said:
Pete, This top twenty, in my opinion, is more than a little out of whack! It may be right where you imagined it should be. It may even correct itself by the second round of the playoffs. But, right now its not very accurate.
Click to expand...

Point allocation is a lot like Vegas, to win big you got to bet big. any adjustments are made based on the teams each have played and some people play a lot tougher schedule than others. Aquila has won 4 games but has manager to go down in points for the last 3 weeks, beating teams by 10 and 20 when the margin should have been 50 or better.

I don't expect all the teams listed at this point to be here in week 10 but then I'm not handicapping them, the computer is and it has no feelings.

Don't worry after Sunday I'll get a new list together :)
 
Well you might have to put odonnell back up there, if the three kids dont violate their probation . Heard three might be back, quickly so they will win some district games.
 
kbjoe1":3ocmn5s1 said:
Borden county, Meadow, and Valley all should be in the top 6
Click to expand...

Interesting, these three teams belong in the top 6?

My system has Rankin favored over Meadow by 32 Garnger has them by favored by 21
We both see Vally winning by 45-50
Slight difference in the outcome of the Petersburg ,Borden County game
I like Petersburg by 22.01 Granger likes BC by 6

real possibility that 2 of these teams will be suffering a loss(BC, Meadow), maybe that why they aren't in the top 6.
If they win maybe they move up enough to get there,

Tonight will tell
 
I think the game with Rankin will be close very close
Valley we agree will be a 45+ game
BC is and different kind of team they seem to play to the team they are playing that given week and have had great success and expect to win so i don’t see the urgency in there play but when it comes push to shove they can bring it

My 2cents with that and a dollar you can get a small cup of coffee… lol
 
kbjoe1":3j037xeh said:
I think the game with Rankin will be close very close
Valley we agree will be a 45+ game
BC is and different kind of team they seem to play to the team they are playing that given week and have had great success and expect to win so i don’t see the urgency in there play but when it comes push to shove they can bring it

My 2cents with that and a dollar you can get a small cup of coffee… lol
Click to expand...

I wish I could get a small cup for a dollar, inthe big D they seem to like 2 bucks or better
 
Valley is horribly under-ranked. You have Leverett's Chapel ranked above Meadow.

I taking your new program for what it is, so consider my comments as just calling attention to what is obvious to me.

I'm sure by the time the playoffs roll around your version of the toy will start looking better.

My question is, how did you determine the SOS at the beginning of this season?
 
kbjoe1":2i9rhyw9 said:
Pete,
you were right in regards to meadow and i was wrong. got to give you credit on that one.
Click to expand...

The system isn't perfect but so far for week 4 it has picked the right team77% of the time. I hope that each week it gets better, but time will tell, I spend a lot of time regressing testing the models as they change with each new weeks data. and every now and then I notice a bug that has to be tracked down and killed. Outliers in my data sets are killing me now, don't know what to do about them.
 
rainjacktx":1oczwphx said:
Valley is horribly under-ranked. You have Leverett's Chapel ranked above Meadow.

I taking your new program for what it is, so consider my comments as just calling attention to what is obvious to me.

I'm sure by the time the playoffs roll around your version of the toy will start looking better.

My question is, how did you determine the SOS at the beginning of this season?
Click to expand...


Fair question - SOS wasn't in this years modle, team power is. I decided to start with Grangers final rankings from last season - I figure any team is near that. I then applied that power as the starting power for last year and ran the team forward using my system for 10 games. Then I took 60% as the base and used the DCF write ups on each team, based on modeling I subtracted points for lettermen lost added points for lettermen returning added points for starters returning O and D, small adjustment for district finishing rank.

Now points added and subtracted are not on a liner scale, more like a gentle curve. Some pieces are worth more than others.

I am working on a SOS model to temper the weekly adjustments I currently make but think I am still several weeks away, I hope to have a working algorithm by next year.
 
rainjacktx":3t7hvbq1 said:
It'll be interesting to see how your toy finishes up this year. I'll give you two full seasons before I start complaining.
Click to expand...
I won't! I'm going to complain now! You have some of the worst rankings out there!
I just can't help myself. :)
 

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