fajitapete's rankings(ravings)

[fajitapete]

For a lot longer than I care to think about I have been working on a ranking system aka ‘a toy’. It is based on last years power rankings that I tabulated and then influenced by enrollment, last years district standing, lettermen lost, returning, and starters returning. The last 4 items are taken out of DCTF so blame him if the rankings do go the way you want.

After a lot of regression testing and trying to quantify the influence on each of these areas, I think I have my system ready to run. It will get better as time goes on as I recessively apply corrections in a 4 week moving window so hopefully towards the end of the season I will have a good ranking system. I tested the system during last years play offs and only missed 5 games. So I am going public this year.

It’s not rocket science, but seems pretty damn close to it. Anyway, I haven’t done anything with the tapps or independents. I don’t have a clue how one can harness that much data, just doing div 1 and 2 is kicking my butt. I will try to bring those teams on line this year.

So here is the first run aka preseason rankings. If this can be kept up I’ll do it all year but if work gets in the way, well I do like the paycheck. I will try to predict upcoming game as well so we can all take big ol jabs when I miss.


Buckholts 1
Calvert 2
Oglesby 3
Star 4

[Dogface]

I guess one of the games you missed last yr.
was the Callie/Buck game in Callie??

[RogueEconomist]

I disagree some on this one fajitapete'


1 Calvert lost a lot of starters from last years team. They won't be as big or as strong, but with that said they will be be faster. The QB is strong,smart, and has a great arm. He will be backed up by a couple of really good receivers, one who's brother went D! LY. There will be several quick backs, led by a jr that has very good cutback ability. Their center should be good on offense and will be great on defense. Their weakness will be a lack of quality sized players, outside of the QB and center the other couple of big kids have not shown much in the past. A large, and talented freshman class will help. a lot of speed and quickness coupled with great coaching will result in another district champ.

2-Oglesby Will be helped by a very good freshman class, I look for a better showing than lat year. The coach will have them improving weekly and could surprise some.

3-Buckholts- There coach last year had them believing they could win and they did win many games. They will have some size which will help them. After watching them last year I don't see any chance they can handle Calverts speed. In the Calvert game last year the Calvert backup played most of the game and beat them very badly. Even against the 2nd string they were never in it.
4-Star, is what Star is. Another rough year.

[stuntinbadger]

RogueEconomist wrote:
> I disagree some on this one fajitapete'
>
>
> 1 Calvert lost a lot of starters from last years team. They won't be as
> big or as strong, but with that said they will be be faster. The QB is
> strong,smart, and has a great arm. He will be backed up by a couple of
> really good receivers, one who's brother went D! LY. There will be several
> quick backs, led by a jr that has very good cutback ability. Their center
> should be good on offense and will be great on defense. Their weakness will
> be a lack of quality sized players, outside of the QB and center the other
> couple of big kids have not shown much in the past. A large, and talented
> freshman class will help. a lot of speed and quickness coupled with great
> coaching will result in another district champ.
>
> 2-Oglesby Will be helped by a very good freshman class, I look for a better
> showing than lat year. The coach will have them improving weekly and could
> surprise some.
>
> 3-Buckholts- There coach last year had them believing they could win and
> they did win many games. They will have some size which will help them.
> After watching them last year I don't see any chance they can handle
> Calverts speed. In the Calvert game last year the Calvert backup played
> most of the game and beat them very badly. Even against the 2nd string they
> were never in it.
> 4-Star, is what Star is. Another rough year.

3. Buckholts - Where do you see size at? They lost their Big man in James Shelton (6'3 270), They have gotten stronger, MUCH stronger and the speed is still there. The sophomore class will give a little more consistency size wise, but Speed is not a factor there is plenty still in buck they have a tremendous sophomore coming back who missed qualifying for state in the 800 by milliseconds, a very fast JH and JV squad that has been in the weight room all off-season and summer. The coaching staff got woken up at calvert last year and have been preparing the kids all off season in being ready to give calvert and Richland Springs all they can handle this year. Guess you didnt see the first series when calvert went 3 and out last year, backups??? I dont think you watched this game at all, quit giving the perception you have any credibility when you are making your picks on assumptions and hear say. The team was in it from the word go, calvert just simply out manned them like they did to teams all year long. DCTF C.O.Y Scwartz and crew have this team amped for what will be another exciting year out of buckholts. BADGER PRIDE !

[Dogface]

While Star and Ogle try hard,
it's only Callie and Buck
actually competing against each other.
If Coach has his neck-tie cinched up
and all the boys are keeping up with "DaKade"
then they will do fine!
Badger pride on 3!!

BTW, the 800 is not a sprint race.
I'm just sayin'.

(I was coming home from Rule last week
when I saw my first badger ever
crossing the street in front of me.
That was so cool).

Was Coach really DC COY?
Cool.

[skinitback35]

I think the coaching staff at buckholts is doing a great job. I really believe that Buckholts has the weakest non district schedule and district its had in its history with the exception of Calvert. Do I think the Coach should have gotten " Coach of the Year" in DC TX football? Maybe, maybe not?
We will see but that schedule along with a terrible district schedule would set any decent coach or team up for success. I give the credit to the kids more than the coach. The years when buckholts made the playoffs in the past, the had to play good people and BEAT good people. Buckholts JV could have beaten Star and Oglesby last year! I really hate this division 1 and 2 crap! BAck in the day it meant something to get to the playoffs. You had 5 or 6 district games instead of 3. Come On. I say Buckholts will get 2nd behind Calvert. Oglesby might sneak up on the badgers depending whose healthy and who is not. Good Luck Badgers!

[Dogface]

I gotta agree with Skinner
regarding making the playoffs
after just a few dist. games.
But, it is what it is.

[kbjoe1]

I think the two divisions is better. yes some schools get in and did not have good records but look at some schools that load their with soft predistrict, look at some districts that could have more than one strong team. the playoffs weed out the weaker ussually in round one or two.
i love watching highschool football to see the passion of the kids the coaches the fans that drive all over the country just to support the team.

[RogueEconomist]

stuntinbadger wrote:
> RogueEconomist wrote:
> > I disagree some on this one fajitapete'
> >
> >
> > 1 Calvert lost a lot of starters from last years team. They won't be as
> > big or as strong, but with that said they will be be faster. The QB is
> > strong,smart, and has a great arm. He will be backed up by a couple of
> > really good receivers, one who's brother went D! LY. There will be several
> > quick backs, led by a jr that has very good cutback ability. Their center
> > should be good on offense and will be great on defense. Their weakness will
> > be a lack of quality sized players, outside of the QB and center the other
> > couple of big kids have not shown much in the past. A large, and talented
> > freshman class will help. a lot of speed and quickness coupled with great
> > coaching will result in another district champ.
> >
> > 2-Oglesby Will be helped by a very good freshman class, I look for a better
> > showing than lat year. The coach will have them improving weekly and could
> > surprise some.
> >
> > 3-Buckholts- There coach last year had them believing they could win and
> > they did win many games. They will have some size which will help them.
> > After watching them last year I don't see any chance they can handle
> > Calverts speed. In the Calvert game last year the Calvert backup played
> > most of the game and beat them very badly. Even against the 2nd string they
> > were never in it.
> > 4-Star, is what Star is. Another rough year.
>
> 3. Buckholts - Where do you see size at? They lost their Big man in James Shelton
> (6'3 270), They have gotten stronger, MUCH stronger and the speed is still there. The
> sophomore class will give a little more consistency size wise, but Speed is not a
> factor there is plenty still in buck they have a tremendous sophomore coming back who
> missed qualifying for state in the 800 by milliseconds, a very fast JH and JV squad
> that has been in the weight room all off-season and summer. The coaching staff got
> woken up at calvert last year and have been preparing the kids all off season in
> being ready to give calvert and Richland Springs all they can handle this year. Guess
> you didnt see the first series when calvert went 3 and out last year, backups??? I
> dont think you watched this game at all, quit giving the perception you have any
> credibility when you are making your picks on assumptions and hear say. The team was
> in it from the word go, calvert just simply out manned them like they did to teams
> all year long. DCTF C.O.Y Scwartz and crew have this team amped for what will be
> another exciting year out of buckholts. BADGER PRIDE !

Oh I was there. I remember a 46-0 blowout that ended early third qtr by the mercy rule. Calvert's speed made BH look slow and the hitting by Calvert was devastating. BH was beaten badly, on both sides of the ball and were never in the game. So , no rewriting history, you will get another shot at them this year. Calvert wont be as good this year, but still good. Team speed will be greater than last year, Calvert has won the district in track 27 of the last 28 years. BH being a lot stronger will give them an edge there. BH has a very good coach, he has turned around the Badgers. With that said, Calvert may have the best coach in the state, he is class act and knows how to win. He is the most winning percentage coach in the state. 90% plus

I feel that as far as giving RS a run for their money, Baring injuries I do not see anybody beating Richland Springs, they are that good. I will be Hico to watch Calvert play a talented Strawn team. The Hounds should win on paper by several touchdowns, I wouldn't bet the farm on it though. After watching the game I will have a better idea of BH chances.
Good luck to you and the Badgers, I do like the Bravado. Sooner or later those that prepare and believe they can win , will.

[Hero99]

I think Calvert will run away with the district and buckholts will finish second easily. Oglesby will be third and star pulling up the back. I didnt think that star would even have a school this year. I heard they had lost alot of students leave. I also noticed in dave campbells that star has the same coach as a coule years ago. I thought they had a different coach last year? Just wasnt at most games. I know the coach wasnt the same from week 3 to week 7. I love my badgers but I just dont think we have enough to beat those pesky calvert trojans. Very fast and athletic.

[Dogface]

According to the schedule
posted here
The Buck doesn't even play Callie.
How's that gonna work?
And the pre-dist. schedule
was much lighter last year.
I'm gonna say anyway
the Buck is in the playoffs, at least.

[olderelk]

By golly, you're right. Calvert isn't on Buck's schedule.
Buck is on Calvert's schedule but Buck's says BYE.
I could say something to stir the pot here, but I won't.

[topher80]

No no, please stir the pot. LOL

[Dogface]

Yes!!
Please stir away!!!

After hearing about Callie in Hico,
the Buck jus might be #1
over there in dis.16.

Might I also say,
unusual score against them homeschoolers.?!
Hope everyone got to play!!!

Badger pride on 3!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!