Simulations on who will win after Rd. 1

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Simulations on who will win after Rd. 1

Postby granger » Tue Nov 17, 2015 1:25 pm

I am going to start posting the simulations I am running. Here's the low down. I am simulating the remaining tournaments 100,000 times and will post the results. I will start with the UIL Division 1 bracket and explain the results.

What the numbers mean:
The first four are the number of times they lost in that round. The final number is the total number of championships they win

So, for Happy (the favorite right now). The lose 22.7% of the time in this next round, 32.8% in the regional final, 16.9% in the semifinal, 7.6% in the final and win the whole thing 19.9% of the time.

On thing to notice is the tough draw Borden County has right now. Not only is their game with Valley very tight, they then have to 'probably' play Happy next. There is about a 75% chance they lose in the next two rounds.

If BC wins the next two rounds, their odds greatly improve to 37%, which is higher than the 1 in 4 expected semifinalist odds. That is not to be confused with the 9.38% chance they have now.

Happy,22737,32814,16917,7627,19905
Meadow,77263,14101,4760,1751,2125
Borden County,49097,25697,11121,4708,9377
Valley,50903,27388,10202,4294,7213
Garden City,53616,27454,12127,2939,3864
Hermleigh,46384,28669,14566,4188,6193
Crowell,32947,26529,20367,6703,13454
Sterling City,67053,17348,9940,2443,3216
Newcastle,55954,24985,11441,5500,2120
Zephyr,44046,28004,14912,8831,4207
Rochelle,39970,26050,16414,11274,6292
Gordon,60030,20961,11120,5606,2283
Abbott,22237,34218,17984,15088,10473
Savoy,77763,14085,4756,2561,835
Chester,60630,22465,8804,5650,2451
Milford,39370,29232,14569,10837,5992
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Re: Simulations on who will win after Rd. 1

Postby granger » Tue Nov 17, 2015 1:34 pm

Here are the numbers for the UIL D2.

Follett,25721,27511,22582,13302,10884
Whitharral,74279,13903,7932,2673,1213
Southland,46126,30313,13777,6158,3626
Lefors,53874,28273,11030,4445,2378
Balmorhea,19969,29679,19251,15381,15720
Blanket,80031,11636,4941,2294,1098
Rising Star,69793,20574,5528,2726,1379
Buena Vista,30207,38111,14959,9856,6867
Guthrie,34529,28618,24239,6592,6022
Chillicothe,65471,19276,11445,2209,1599
Forestburg,63084,21838,11482,2091,1505
Motley County,36916,30268,22729,5371,4716
Richland Springs,34484,34690,9486,8593,12747
Mt. Calm,65516,22510,4765,3537,3672
Calvert,34087,25477,9750,9931,20755
Jonesboro,65913,17323,6104,4841,5819

Right now the favorites in order are Calvert, Balmorhea, Richland Springs then Follett. The next two rounds are key for the very bottom half of the draw.
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Re: Simulations on who will win after Rd. 1

Postby granger » Tue Nov 17, 2015 4:14 pm

Here's the data from TAPPS D1

Giddings State School,70379,22590,4648,2383
Pasadena First Baptist,29621,45653,14595,10131
Houston Emery-Weiner,68565,12640,10475,8320
Rockwall Heritage,31435,19117,20918,28530
Midland Trinity,21928,39069,19210,19793
Austin Hill Country,78072,15019,4335,2574
Watauga Harvest,32574,28049,17355,22022
Baytown Christian,67426,17863,8464,6247
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Re: Simulations on who will win after Rd. 1

Postby granger » Tue Nov 17, 2015 4:16 pm

TAPPS D2

Dallas Tyler Street,47844,36645,9762,5749
Denton Calvary,52156,35209,8144,4491
Plainview Christian,84642,7233,5458,2667
Waco Live Oak,15358,20913,27879,35850
SA Castle Hills,74588,14651,6280,4481
Austin Veritas,25412,30705,19273,24610
Cedar Park Summit,18257,41591,19933,20219
Conroe Covenant Christian,81743,13053,3271,1933
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Re: Simulations on who will win after Rd. 1

Postby granger » Tue Nov 17, 2015 4:19 pm

TAPPS D3

WF Wichita Christian,37188,26092,12638,24082
Granbury North Central Texas Academy,62812,19150,8275,9763
Longview Trinity,70211,19235,5210,5344
WF Notre Dame,29789,35523,13707,20981
Seguin Lifegate,7105,41969,29207,21719
Bellville Faith,92895,5517,1266,322
Fredericksburg Heritage,63040,21737,10066,5157
San Marcos Hill Country Christian,36960,30777,19631,12632
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Re: Simulations on who will win after Rd. 1

Postby granger » Tue Nov 17, 2015 4:26 pm

TAIAO D1

Very evenly balanced....

SA FEAST Homeschool,42973,25652,31375
Capital City Christian Home School,57027,22604,20369
Bastrop Tribe Consolidated,57723,23722,18555
Fort Worth THESA,42277,28022,29701

TAIAO D2

Two dominant teams

Stephenville Faith,16168,39860,43972
Johnson County Sports Association,83832,11368,4800
Austin NYOS,17388,37117,45495
Plano CHANT,82612,11655,5733
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Re: Simulations on who will win after Rd. 1

Postby granger » Tue Nov 17, 2015 5:02 pm

TCAL D1
Bryan Christian Homeschool (BVCHEA),34836,27630,37534
Houston Texas Christian,65164,18718,16118
EP Faith,54442,25678,19880
Sugar Land HCYA Fort Bend,45558,27974,26468

but fairly balanced


TCAL D2
Marshall Christian Academy,64807,21754,13439
Corpus Christi Abundant Life,35193,33034,31773
Corpus Christi Annapolis,45052,23531,31417
Corpus Christi WINGS,54948,21681,23371
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Re: Simulations on who will win after Rd. 1

Postby 51eleven » Thu Nov 19, 2015 12:35 pm

granger wrote:Here are the numbers for the UIL D2.

Follett,25721,27511,22582,13302,10884
Whitharral,74279,13903,7932,2673,1213
Southland,46126,30313,13777,6158,3626
Lefors,53874,28273,11030,4445,2378
Balmorhea,19969,29679,19251,15381,15720
Blanket,80031,11636,4941,2294,1098
Rising Star,69793,20574,5528,2726,1379
Buena Vista,30207,38111,14959,9856,6867
Guthrie,34529,28618,24239,6592,6022
Chillicothe,65471,19276,11445,2209,1599
Forestburg,63084,21838,11482,2091,1505
Motley County,36916,30268,22729,5371,4716
Richland Springs,34484,34690,9486,8593,12747
Mt. Calm,65516,22510,4765,3537,3672
Calvert,34087,25477,9750,9931,20755
Jonesboro,65913,17323,6104,4841,5819

Right now the favorites in order are Calvert, Balmorhea, Richland Springs then Follett. The next two rounds are key for the very bottom half of the draw.


This is a deep analysis for my shallow mathematical mind. When I first saw this before I read your statement I thought huh? RS, Calvert, Jonesboro at the bottom of the list? The Yotes will be howlin at this.
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