JaybirdDad wrote:Fajitapete I like your pick but I think it will be a little more than just 2. Granger, on the other hand, I think you are way off to say that the Birds will be beat by the 45 point rule. I just don't see it happening after watching the Hornets the other night against Spur. The Birds have the quickness and the speed to remain undefeated....GO BIRDS...:-)
In the guru defense, understand that his model of the game takes into account performance from the beginning and makes adjustments based on the performance of the previous week. Just like mine but he uses a different model, and that doesn't make him wrong. Believe it or not we are not really predicting scores but rather the winner of the game and the margin that the model comes up with. Sometimes I have a hard time understand how the heck it comes up with some of the numbers but I tend to trust it.
Of course in any 6-man game, the loss of a key player to the flu, grades or girlfriend can be a game changer. One year I tried to use home field advantage but found that as an influence, it had less than 2% impact on scores, 1.3% if I remember correctly. And homecoming has less a positive effect than you would think. We are always trying to find the factor that gives us the edge, I spent two years of data trying to model distance traveled with out coming to any findings I could use. I tried using enrollment figures but teams like RS busted that model to heck and back. If you can't apply it successfully at least 70% of the time it's not worth tracking or using.
in 6 man I think a 2 point prediction is saying that it could go either way . . .
Still, best of luck to your team . . .