fajitapete's rankings(ravings)

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fajitapete's rankings(ravings)

Postby fajitapete » Thu Jun 23, 2011 8:06 pm

For a lot longer than I care to think about I have been working on a ranking system aka ‘a toy’. It is based on last years power rankings that I tabulated and then influenced by enrollment, last years district standing, lettermen lost, returning, and starters returning. The last 4 items are taken out of DCTF so blame him if the rankings do go the way you want.

After a lot of regression testing and trying to quantify the influence on each of these areas, I think I have my system ready to run. It will get better as time goes on as I recessively apply corrections in a 4 week moving window so hopefully towards the end of the season I will have a good ranking system. I tested the system during last years play offs and only missed 5 games. So I am going public this year.

It’s not rocket science, but seems pretty damn close to it. Anyway, I haven’t done anything with the tapps or independents. I don’t have a clue how one can harness that much data, just doing div 1 and 2 is kicking my butt. I will try to bring those teams on line this year.

So here is the first run aka preseason rankings. If this can be kept up I’ll do it all year but if work gets in the way, well I do like the paycheck. I will try to predict upcoming game as well so we can all take big ol jabs when I miss.

Amherst 1
Whitharral 2
Cotton Center 3
Lazbuddie 4
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Re: fajitapete's rankings(ravings)

Postby RogueEconomist » Thu Jun 30, 2011 5:16 am

I would move Whitharral up to one, but it could go either way.
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Re: fajitapete's rankings(ravings)

Postby RogueEconomist » Mon Jul 25, 2011 1:21 am

Cotton Center picked up a really good coach, "Coach Barrow" I would bet they will be much more of factor than in the past.
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Re: fajitapete's rankings(ravings)

Postby Bulldog_2011 » Sun Aug 14, 2011 10:14 pm

I don't think so Amherst should have a joy ride in district. Fajitapete those were the best predictions ever lol. IDK why Witharral was picked so high in the rankings if they didnt gain any new players. To much speed for the panthers ....tell coach jackson he needs come visit some day. GO DAWGS
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Re: fajitapete's rankings(ravings)

Postby phenom » Tue Aug 16, 2011 8:42 am

maybe they are picked so high because they are all healthy unlike last year.
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Re: fajitapete's rankings(ravings)

Postby Bulldog_2011 » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:11 pm

excuses excuses......like my old coach said rankings are a bunch of numbers the games are settled on the field... GO DAWGS
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Re: fajitapete's rankings(ravings)

Postby phenom » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:33 pm

no excuses here. just speakin the plain truth. first bulldog victory over the panthers since the miles era i do believe. and to quote my old coach " the sun shines on a dogs butt every once in a while".
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Re: fajitapete's rankings(ravings)

Postby Bulldog_2011 » Sat Aug 27, 2011 3:44 pm

LOL nice quote but every school hast there ups and downs ....looks like the sun is gonna keep shining on ur butts while we will be kicken yalls lol
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Re: fajitapete's rankings(ravings)

Postby Bulldog_2011 » Sun Aug 28, 2011 7:47 pm

our
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Re: fajitapete's rankings(ravings)

Postby phenom » Tue Aug 30, 2011 1:17 pm

your Assuming im from whitharral. i was just stating the facts that their kids are healthy this year, unlike last year. i guess time will tell who will win the district crown. so now that you have put me in with them i guess i will root on the whitharral panthers. good luck young man.
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Re: fajitapete's rankings(ravings)

Postby amherstbulldog2011 » Tue Aug 30, 2011 7:38 pm

sure is good to be able to get back one here. i was really impressed with the way the Bulldogs played this past week. but there were of course times when they should've done better. but nonetheless, the boys did an incredible job. i think fajitapete's ranking is about right. i haven't seen anything on Whitharral this season but i do know that they will most likely not be able to handle the speed in the backfield, along with the qb's arm. nor will they be able to predict what is gonna happen while the Dawgs tear em up on defense. with all the depth on the charts this year, there's no tellin just how good the Bulldogs are gonna do.wish they had more than one game close to Canyon. and as the chant goes:
"We work, We win!"
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Re: fajitapete's rankings(ravings)

Postby Naetron » Sun Sep 04, 2011 12:46 pm

We all know that dist. 3 is not a particularly strong district. It probably was the weakest 6man district in the state last year, but this is a new year, and I would say that won’t be the case this year. I think that there is much more equability within the this district this season. My predictions:
1) Whitharral
2) Amherst but 1, 2, 3 are all real close
3) Lazbuddie
4) Cotton Center
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Re: fajitapete's rankings(ravings)

Postby Naetron » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:16 pm

There is a method to the madness.
First let’s look at the players:
Whitharral has one of the most athletically talented group of juniors in the region and 4 really solid seniors, and they have a great group of underclassmen waiting in the wings, so they can easily go 2 or 3 deep at every position.
Amherst has the largest roster, so they can go deep too, but the depth doesn’t include the quality that Whit has. Amherst arguably has the best athlete in the district, and he is a natural leader. However, he is an underclassman, and it remains to be seen whether or not the upperclassmen will follow him and have a great season. And they have some little guys that are fast for this district.
Lazbuddie only has a handful of players, so they have NO depth, but they are a very unified bunch that believes in each other with a passion. Something that the previous 2 teams seriously lack. They are also led by 4 really solid seniors.
Cotton Center players are having to learn a new system and they have lost several key players. However, don’t count them out. Last year’s surprise is still sending shock waves through the district.
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Re: fajitapete's rankings(ravings)

Postby Naetron » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:40 pm

Next, let’s look at the coaches:
Whitharral’s coach is the most experienced, and he is a former panther himself, so I’m sure there is a little more than pride in his coaching ability motivating him. He is a man of great character and integrity. And, he is also the only coach in the district that possesses a State Championship.
Amherst’s coach is as solid as they come. He is also, a man of great character and integrity. He may be the hardest working coach in the district. He certainly provides his team an outstanding role model. And he understands football well.
Lazbuddie’s coach is probably the most talented in the group and the youngest. He is the only one of the four to have played college football. His “air attack” will frustrate even the greatest of defensive coordinators, and his knowledge of offense gives him an unnatural insight when defending the opposing team.
Cotton Center’s coach is a huge step up for them when compared to what they have had in the last decade or two. This is not his first rodeo, and his knowledge and intellect should greatly improve the level of play of the elks.
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Re: fajitapete's rankings(ravings)

Postby Naetron » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:48 pm

With all that said, lets wait until late October and see what happens. After all, it’s been said on many occasions, “THAT’S WHY WE LINE’EM UP AND PLAY’EM ON FRIDAY NIGHT.”

Good luck to everybody! I hope all of the players (and coaches :) ) make it through the season without injuries.
And above all else, remember to give God the glory, and to also turn to Him when you are defeated.
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