District Predictions

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District Predictions

Postby Chap_24 » Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:11 am

Anyone have a prediction for this district?
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Re: District Predictions

Postby Caprock kid » Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:25 am

1.Whiteface
2.Newhome
3.Ropes
4. Anton
5. Meadow
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Re: District Predictions

Postby justobserving » Thu Sep 04, 2014 4:37 pm

Conventional wisdom and the "TOY" say:

    Whiteface
    Ropes
    Meadow
    New Home
    Anton

Spread shows a 56 point difference between the top and bottom of the district. The closest power rating to Whiteface is Ropes just shy of 18 points below.

4 teams were winners and one loser in Week 1. Average winning margin was 40 points. The one loss was a 35 point loss.

If Whiteface were to play it's district opponents this week there would be 45+ spreads on 2 of them, an almost 33 point spread in 1 and a just shy of 18 points spread over it's closest rival.

The District's rankings are fairly evenly spread from #20 to #38.

Not bad parity really ... One or more injuries - one or more players ineligible - throwing team playing on a wet night could spell a big swing.

Really too early to tell although Whiteface appears to be the undisputed team to beat. Playing some high ranked teams this week and some stories could be told.

This week:
    2 teams are 45 point underdogs
    1 team is a 26 point underdog
    1 team is a 45 point favorite
    1 is a 20 point favorite.

This week should be somewhat of a yardstick for comparison.

The Underdogs:
    Anton has the largest mountain to climb taking on #2 Crowell
    New Home is next confronting #13 Hermleigh
    District hopeful Whiteface will be tested by #10 Happy

The Favorites:
    Ropes over #35 (DII) Amherst
    Meadow over #36 Petersburg

Will be a real good test for New Home's new program. Anton may be in survival mode on this one. Whiteface is going to get a good chance to see where they are really at as far as it's stead against top 10 opponents.

Tune in Friday night to see how it all plays out.
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Re: District Predictions

Postby jersha » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:44 pm

Thank you for this analysis. I hope it will be a regular feature each game day.
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Re: District Predictions

Postby Chap_24 » Tue Sep 09, 2014 10:19 am

New analysis this week JO? or anyone. This board used to be very popular with everyone sharing opinions. Not much talk anymore.
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Re: District Predictions

Postby WT43 » Tue Sep 09, 2014 10:59 am

Ropes
Meadow
Whiteface
Anton
New Home
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Re: District Predictions

Postby Caprock kid » Tue Sep 09, 2014 11:42 am

After knowing what I know now I'll go with:

Ropes
Whiteface
Meadow
New Home
Anton
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Re: District Predictions

Postby justobserving » Wed Sep 10, 2014 9:16 am

After 2 weeks the positioning in the District has not changed but the power ratings have tightened.

The order remains the same:

    Whiteface
    Ropes
    Meadow
    New Home
    Anton

Spread shows a 52.44 point difference between the top and bottom of the district. The closest power rating to Whiteface is Ropes, now just shy of 4 power rating points below. Ropes has closed 14 points in power ranking.

The District had a rough time last week. 3 loses and 2 wins. The three loses all came from games where opponents were ranked #13 or higher. The two wins resulted from games with low ranked opponents. One opponent was ranked #36 in D1 and the other was ranked #35 in D2.

All three loses were games that were stopped via the 45 pt rule. The "TOY" had predicted 2 of these games as 45 pt. games and the remaining one as 26 pt loss.

One win was a 45 pt rule win as was predicted by the "TOY" and the other was a 38 pt win predicted to be a 20 pt margin.

The District's Ranking are #21 - #22 - #27 - #35 - #38. Of the top 3 only 16 power ranking points separate Whiteface and Meadow. New Home is some 25 power ranking points behind Meadow with Anton trailing New Home 10 power ranking points.

The District Race really at this point looks like:
    ___
    | Whiteface
    | Ropes
    |
    | Meadow
    |
    |
    | New Home
    | Anton

Three bunched at the top right now. On paper the District Race has tightened.

From last weeks results the overall District is a little weak. It's showing against highly ranked teams was to say the least not very impressive. Whiteface, the district's highest ranked team was 45'd by Happy the #10 ranked team at the time.

This weeks opponents are a mixed bag of Rankings.

This Week:
    • 2 teams are 45 point favorites
    • 2 teams are 45 point underdogs
    • 1 is a 16 point underdog
The Underdogs:
    • Ropes has the largest mountain to climb this week playing #1 ranked Ira
    • Anton faces #19 Klondike
    • New Home has their Homecoming vs. #15 D2 Sands
The Favorites:
    • Whiteface over #37 Southland
    • Meadow over #54 D2 Wellman-Union

Should be a rebound week for two teams for sure and one has a chance to over achieve and come away with a "W". One team is in survival mode facing an 81 point spread.

Tune in Friday night to see how Week 3 plays out.
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Re: District Predictions

Postby Chap_24 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:38 am

We are ready once again JO.
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Re: District Predictions

Postby justobserving » Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:15 pm

District Power Ratings have a big shift in Week 4. After 3 weeks the positioning in the District has a major change and the power ratings have spread the teams much further apart.

The order as of Week 4:

    Ropes
    Meadow
    New Home
    Anton
    Whiteface

Whiteface slips from the top of the heap to the bottom of the barrel.

Spread now shows a 66.90 point difference between the top and bottom of the district. The closest power rating to the new leader Ropes is Meadow, 31.73 power rating points below. Next is New Home 49.01 Power Rankings behind Ropes. Just less than 18 points is the gap between second and third.

If Ropes played it’s district opponents this week they would be favored by the “Toy” by the following margins: 31.73 pts, 49.01 pts, 62.38 pts and 66.90 points. Ropes has distanced themselves from the rest of District 3 by a large margin. The chase is on.

The District had another tough week. 3 losses and 2 wins. Ropes was one of the losses but they faired better than the spread given them against #1 Ira. The actual spread was 81 points I believe and they lost by 28. Whiteface was a 45 point favorite and lost to Southland by 17. Anton was a 45 point underdog to Klondike and ended up on the short end of a 41-31 score. New Home turned the tables on Sands. The Leopards were a 16 point underdog and pulled off a 70-50 win.

The district was only involved in one 45 point rule game in Week 3. Meadow over Wellman-Union 59-12 and was the predicted 45+ spread.

The District's Rankings are now #14 - #24 - #30 - #35 - #37. Four teams moved up in the rankings an average of 4.75 places with one falling. Ropes made the biggest move rising 8 places. Whiteface was the only team moving down and they dropped 16 places and to 5th place in the district Power Ranking standings.

The District Race ( based on Power Rankings ) through Week three looks like:
    ___
    | Ropes
    |
    |
    | Meadow
    |
    | New Home
    |
    | Anton
    | Whiteface

On paper at this time the district leader has become more of a one horse race with the second playoff birth becoming the biggest question at this time.

The districts overall strength still shows to be weak against the rest of the potential playoff field but did make some small strides up the ladder.

This weeks opponents include two Top 10 teams.

This Week:
    • 2 teams are 45 point favorites
    • 1 is a 37 point favorite
    • 2 teams are 45 point underdogs
The Underdogs:
    • New Home has the largest mountain to climb this week playing #3 ranked Borden County
    • Anton faces #9 Water Valley
The Favorites:
    • Ropes over #31 Nazereth
    • Meadow over #23 D2 Dawson
    • Whiteface over #52 Hart

Should be a winning week for two teams for sure but we saw how this same scenario played out last week. Again in Week 4 one team is in survival mode facing an actual 89 point spread.

Any more predictions yet on how all of this is going to shake out ? The New Home vs Borden County game could prove to be an enlightning indicator on the second place race. Meadow is the unknown at this time. Haven't played a very challenging first three games. Toughest opponent so far is 28th ranked Santa Anna which they defeated by a 32 point margin.

Tune in Friday night to see how Week 4 plays out.
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Re: District Predictions

Postby EAGLE83 » Thu Sep 25, 2014 7:25 am

1. Ropes
2. Meadow
3. Anton
4. New Home
5. Whiteface
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