by Leman Saunders » Sat Nov 05, 2016 1:56 pm
I am happy that we can have the distraction of the World Series and High School football during this election!
But I love to play pundit just as much as the next guy and with less than 3 days till the election this is what Im going to predict:
I think it comes down to North Carolina.
We all know that when predicting this it's a matter of filling out the Electoral College map and NC is just to close to call I think more than any other state (save New Hampshire but that one matters less than NC)
I'm grouping the Swing States into categories here:
More Red than is being discussed: Trump wins these states
Georgia, Arizona, Nevada
More Blue than is being discussed: Clinton wins these
Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Mexico, Michigan
States that are close but 3rd Party Candidate plays a major roll:
This is the biggest thing that will swing this election and is not really being talked about! While I put New Mexico into the Clinton side...Gary Johnson has polled over 20% there and I dont think polls really track 3rd parties as well as the major two...still think NM is blue...but...Johnson is what is making New Hampshire up for grabs for Trump and the same with Iowa and Colorado (all state Johnson is very popular in). I think the Johnson effect give Trump Iowa and Colorado, but NH stays blue.
McMullin in Utah is hurting Trump but like New Mexico I dont think the 3rd party will win the state, so this one will stay a Red state.
So that leaves us North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, to decide it all: I see Ohio as Red (been trending red for a while now), and Florida I think is Red...that leaves NC for the win...which I think based on the way the last 2 years worth of news coming out of NC the Dems will turn out better than the Republicans and it goes blue and Clinton wins.
Basically Clinton has to win 2 of these 5 and Trump has to win 4 of the 5: North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Colorado
But heck who knows